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CryptoQuant: Short-term on-chain profit margins hit the highest since December 2024, Bitcoin may face a correction

According to a report by The Block, CryptoQuant's research director Julio Moreno pointed out that Bitcoin's closing price last week was above the 365-day moving average, confirming the start of a new bull market. However, Moreno stated that after Bitcoin reached an eight-month high of $87,400, several indicators show that upward momentum is weakening, and a market correction may follow.The report noted that the on-chain unrealized profit margin for short-term traders has risen to 33%, the highest level since December 2024. Historically, when profit margins are at similar levels, it often prompts traders to take profits. Data shows that on September 22, Bitcoin holders realized profits of 25,700 BTC in a single day, setting a record for the highest daily profit since 2026; the altcoin market also showed signs of selling pressure. The seven-day cumulative number of altcoin transactions rose to 76,000, the highest level since October 17, 2025. Meanwhile, spot demand continues to shrink, and the growth of futures demand has significantly slowed.After Bitcoin previously reached an eight-month high of around $87,400, the upward momentum has shown signs of fatigue. Julio Moreno indicated that if a correction occurs, the 365-day moving average (around $80,000) will serve as the primary support, followed by the 200-day moving average (around $71,000) and the on-chain realized price for traders (around $67,000). Provided that the support levels hold, this correction is more likely to be a healthy consolidation in a young bull market rather than a trend reversal.

first_img Zhu Xiaohu: The model API business is difficult to maintain high gross margins in the long term

Zhu Xiaohu, founding partner of Jinsha River Ventures, stated: The model API business is difficult to maintain high gross margins in the long term. Anthropic currently has a gross margin of about 60%, primarily due to the strong intelligence capabilities of the model, especially in coding scenarios where it had a significant advantage, but that advantage has begun to cross a critical point; when other models catch up, the price may only be one-tenth of its current level, making it hard to maintain a high premium. Even if it remains ahead in the next few years, if the intelligence is only 10% stronger but the price is 50% higher, users may not continue to pay. Intelligence will ultimately become more like electricity and water, and the long-term gross margin for model APIs may be between 10% and 20%. Once capabilities converge, price wars will be hard to avoid, and Anthropic's urgency to go public may also be related to the window period.Zhu Xiaohu mentioned that the AI office market is definitely much larger than AI coding. AI coding was the first to emerge because engineers have a high acceptance of AI, tasks are clear, and results are easy to verify, but it is only part of office work; the truly larger market is the white-collar market, namely AI office, which is essentially a general-purpose agent, similar to Microsoft Office. The competitiveness of AI office products lies in Model + Harness + Product + Context, and once harnesses converge, competition will shift to Context.Regarding Tencent AI, Zhu Xiaohu stated that Tencent is a latecomer, and the Hunyuan model has squeezed into the top tier domestically, with WorkBuddy becoming the leading office agent application in the domestic top tier. Jinsha River Ventures has purchased a WorkBuddy enterprise account because it uses WeChat for Work, and the organizational relationships, historical communications, as well as Tencent Meeting and Tencent Docs constitute a ready-made Context.

NVIDIA will announce its Q2 financial report, with a focus on infrastructure financing and gross margin

NVIDIA will announce its second-quarter financial report after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday, with market focus mainly on five aspects: AI infrastructure financing, progress on Vera Rubin servers, open model layout, sales in China, and gross margin pressure. NVIDIA recently announced a large-scale AI infrastructure financing plan and is supporting a major data center project in southern Ohio. Investors are beginning to pay attention to the company's depth of participation in related transactions and how these financing arrangements will ultimately yield returns.In terms of products, NVIDIA stated that the next-generation Vera Rubin servers are expected to start shipping in the third or fourth quarter of this year. Previously, Blackwell was delayed for several months due to design flaws, so whether Vera Rubin can proceed as planned will be an important observation point. Meanwhile, NVIDIA is reportedly acquiring technology and engineering talent from the open-weight AI model startup Poolside through a $6 billion authorization agreement to accelerate its own Nemotron open model development.Additionally, the market will also focus on NVIDIA's sales performance in the Chinese market. Regarding gross margins, the company currently maintains a high level of about 75%, but as memory prices rise and competition for custom chips and new processors intensifies, NVIDIA may face increasing difficulty in passing costs onto customers.

The AI boom has boosted the enthusiasm for "leveraged stock trading" in Japan, with the scale of retail investors' margin trading doubling in six months, reaching the highest level since 2016

According to the Nikkei News, individual investors in the Japanese stock market are accelerating their use of leverage to bet on AI trends. As of July, the amount of credit trading by individual investors in the Japanese stock market reached 123 trillion yen (approximately 1.09 trillion yuan), doubling since the beginning of the year and reaching the highest level since related statistics began in 2016.Data shows that in June, the scale of credit trading by Japanese individual investors hit a historical high, and in July it continued to maintain a high level. At the same time, the proportion of credit trading in the overall trading amount of individual investors rose to 83%, also setting a new record.AI concept stocks have become the main driving force behind the surge in credit trading, among which the credit buy balance of AI storage concept stock Kioxia reached 13.23 million shares as of August 7, making it one of the popular targets.Benefiting from the recent rise in the Japanese stock market, the overall performance of leveraged investors has been decent. The floating yield of credit trading investors briefly turned positive in June, although it fell back to a loss of 8.4% by the end of July, it is still better than the average loss level of the past 10 years (-10.2%).
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