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After experiencing a significant sell-off last week, an important on-chain metric for Bitcoin—MVRV Z-Score—is approaching the historical bear market bottom region, indicating that market prices are gradually aligning with on-chain realized value, and the worst phase of the decline may be nearing its end. Data shows that the current Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score is 0.24, close to the zero axis, which is historically regarded as the "green accumulation zone." During past bear markets in 2011-2012, 2014, 2018, and 2022, this metric bottomed out near zero or briefly dipped below zero before starting a new upward cycle.The MVRV Z-Score measures the deviation between Bitcoin's current market value and its realized value. When market prices are significantly above the realized value, it indicates that Bitcoin is relatively expensive; conversely, when prices are close to or below the realized value, it suggests that the market has entered an undervalued area. However, analysts believe that the market may not have formed an absolute bottom yet. On-chain data shows that the short-term holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is currently at 0.84, while the long-term holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains as high as 1.29, and neither has converged like during the bear market bottoms of 2015, 2019, and 2022. This indicates that long-term holders still retain significant unrealized profits, and the market may still need to undergo further adjustments to form a typical bear market bottom.However, after the cryptocurrency market evaporated hundreds of billions in market value last week, several historical signals indicating market recovery have begun to emerge.

NVIDIA (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang stated that NVIDIA's collaboration with SK Hynix and SK Telecom is expected to bring hundreds of billions of dollars in business opportunities to South Korea in the future.Huang mentioned that as the construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure continues to advance, and the demand for AI chips, memory, and communication technologies grows, the deep cooperation between NVIDIA and South Korean technology companies will become an important driving force for the development of South Korea's AI industry and may create significant economic value.

According to Bloomberg, large IPO candidates including SpaceX may have to wait several years to be included in the S&P 500 index.The reason is that S&P Dow Jones Indices has refused to relax the criteria for inclusion of constituent stocks, maintaining the requirement for companies to achieve positive net income over the past year (including the most recent quarter). This decision was made by its index committee after a month of discussions, meaning that large newly listed companies that have not yet met the conditions for sustained profitability will still find it difficult to enter the index in the short term.

According to Jinshi reports, Guotai Junan's research report points out that the non-farm data in May continued to exceed expectations, signaling a stabilization and recovery in the U.S. job market, which catalyzed market expectations for interest rate hikes and led to significant adjustments in asset prices. The U.S. dollar strengthened, U.S. Treasury rates surged, U.S. stocks fell sharply, and gold weakened. Guotai Junan believes that there are still differences within the Federal Reserve, and there may not be an interest rate hike within the year, but the market in June may be affected by liquidity shocks, and U.S. stocks may face at least one to two months of volatility.

Michael Saylor, the founder and executive chairman of Bitcoin Treasury Company Strategy, has once again released information related to Bitcoin Tracker, with the caption: "A good time to add more dots.."According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses information about increasing Bitcoin holdings the day after relevant news is released.

Michael Saylor, the founder and executive chairman of Bitcoin Treasury Company Strategy, has once again released information related to Bitcoin Tracker, with the caption: "A good time to add more dots." According to previous patterns, Strategy always discloses information about increasing Bitcoin holdings the day after relevant news is released.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted an analysis of the recent Bitcoin price trend on the X platform, noting that the current Bitcoin price is in the $62,000 range, having dropped nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a decline of 24% over the past month. The price has crossed the upper range of its pricing framework, entering a valuation cluster area where historical cycles have previously shown bottoms.Rafael further pointed out that market bottoms cannot be confirmed in advance and can only be defined through probability ranges and key price levels to identify potential bottom signals. Bitcoin has fallen below the median holder breakeven line for the first time since December 2022, currently situated within a broader support range: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average price is around $61,700.The current high-probability bottom range may be between $46,000 and $54,000, with a rare "sell-off tail" below that range of $35,000 to $40,000. It is important to note that the magnitude of cyclical pullbacks is gradually decreasing: previous rounds of lows saw declines of about 85%, 84%, and 77%, while this round has only dropped about 50%, indicating that a high-probability bottom is more likely to be in the upper range, though extreme sell-off possibilities cannot be ruled out.

According to CoinDesk, an address from the "Satoshi era" that has never been used since March 2011, holding 35.55 bitcoins (approximately $2.54 million), made a transfer this week, which is seen as one of the first publicly visible responses from defendants in a lawsuit involving approximately 3.8 million bitcoins (valued at about $285 billion) in New York.On-chain data shows that the address transferred 15 BTC to a new address on June 2, keeping the remaining 20.55 BTC as change. The address initially received bitcoins on March 27, 2011, when the price of BTC was less than $1.In March of this year, a plaintiff using the pseudonym "Noah Doe" filed a lawsuit in New York state court alongside two LLCs from Wyoming, attempting to claim ownership of approximately 3.8 million long-dormant bitcoin wallets under New York's lost property law, positioning themselves as the "discoverer." The court approved sending on-chain notifications to the relevant wallets via the bitcoin OP_RETURN field.In July 2025, the advisory firm Salomon Brothers Strategic Advisors sent dust transactions with links to legal notices to 39,000 wallets, including the aforementioned address, requesting holders to prove ownership within 90 days.Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Research, pointed out that the address corresponds to defendant number 38215 in the case, stating, "Clearly, these bitcoins have not actually been abandoned."Additionally, another address that had been dormant for 15 years, 1CDSyXAQxro4FPUoqAQb81642ruqDsUiNp, also transferred 20 BTC (approximately $1.48 million) on the same day, but this address did not appear on Noah Doe's list of lawsuits.Analysis suggests that the on-chain movements mentioned above indicate that some bitcoins from the Satoshi era, considered "abandoned assets," are actually still under the control of the original holders.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the Polymarket event "French Open Women's Singles: Maya Hawrylinska vs. Mira Andrejeva," the sub-market "Match Completion" option "Yes" has experienced a dramatic fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 85.5% an hour ago to the current 53% (a fluctuation of 32.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

On-chain detective ZachXBT posted questioning BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes for frequently changing his views and selling tokens in a short period, asking how much exit liquidity he had received from followers in the past few days.ZachXBT pointed out that before WLD, Arthur Hayes had expressed bullish views on tokens such as NEAR, HYPE, and ZEC, and in his latest operation, after publicly expressing a strong bullish stance on Worldcoin (WLD) multiple times and giving a target far above the current price, he chose to liquidate his position in a short time.In response, Arthur Hayes stated that he was simply selling assets at market prices to buyers willing to take over according to his trading targets, and if the price continued to rise, outsiders would think his sale was a wrong decision, "this time it just happened to be a correct judgment."Subsequently, ZachXBT posted again, sharing Arthur Hayes's previous bullish comments on WLD and questioning his rapid exit from the position after loudly promoting it, sparking discussions in the community about the influence of opinion leaders on the market and the issue of "exit liquidity."Previously, Arthur Hayes had stated that he had liquidated his WLD position, claiming that the price trend was "not right," and announced his exit from that position.

According to Jinshi reports, Huatai Securities' research report states that in May 2026, the United States added 172,000 non-farm jobs, higher than Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 85,000, with the cumulative revision for the previous two months being 93,000. The unemployment rate and labor participation rate in May remained at 4.3% and 61.8%, respectively, both in line with expectations; hourly wage growth month-on-month increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.3%, while year-on-year decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.4%, also in line with expectations. The market's pricing for the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes this year has significantly intensified. Huatai Securities maintains the view that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in the second half of the year, with possible rate hikes next year.

The founder of the Liebit Mining Pool (B.TOP), Jiang Zhuoer, stated that Bitcoin has not effectively broken below the strong support of $60,000. The price difference between Coinbase and Binance is narrowing, indicating that the selling volume from U.S. institutions like ETFs is decreasing, and the crypto market may see a rebound over the weekend.In yesterday's news, Jiang Zhuoer announced that he has "bottom-fished" and bought back all ETH positions at $1,645, expecting to start selling after a rebound in 1 to 3 days.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve's Harker stated that a recent interest rate hike may be appropriate as the labor market seems to be balancing. She pointed out that the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, which is essentially consistent with full employment. Harker believes that given the uncertainty of the economic outlook, it is reasonable to keep interest rates stable, but if recent trends continue, action may be needed soon.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, if the ETH price drops another $40 to $1,555, a previous whale using borrowing leverage on Aave may face liquidation risk.

According to Jinshi reports, Chen Tiele, the portfolio manager of Brandywine Global Investment Management, stated that the strong non-farm data indicates that the job market is recovering, and the Federal Reserve should focus on inflation issues. The current inflation rate is nearly on par with the unemployment rate (4.3% in May), suggesting that the Federal Reserve may have fallen behind the curve. Inflation swap contracts indicate that traders expect the CPI to exceed 4.2% in July, before falling back to 3.8% in the first quarter.

According to Jinshi, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 172,000 in May, exceeding the market expectation of an increase of 85,000.

According to Bloomberg, the U.S. government is betting that stablecoins issued by private entities like Tether, pegged to the U.S. dollar, will expand to a scale of about $3 trillion in the coming years to support the international dominance of the dollar and absorb more demand for U.S. Treasury bonds.However, the article points out that the current mainstream stablecoin issuers are concentrated in Tether, which has questionable compliance and anti-money laundering practices in its registered location. In the event of a run or smart contract failure, this could impact the large amounts of U.S. Treasury assets it holds and disrupt global payments and settlements. The European Central Bank is advancing the use of central bank digital currencies and "tokenized euros" to support atomic settlements, in order to avoid being locked into critical financial infrastructure by U.S. private dollar tokens.

According to Bloomberg, the U.S. government is betting that stablecoins issued by private entities like Tether, pegged to the U.S. dollar, will expand to about $3 trillion in the coming years to support the international dominance of the dollar and absorb more demand for U.S. Treasury bonds.However, the article points out that the current mainstream stablecoin issuers are concentrated in Tether, which has questionable compliance and anti-money laundering practices in its registered location. In the event of a run or smart contract failure, this could impact the large amount of U.S. Treasury assets it holds and disrupt global payments and settlements. The European Central Bank is promoting the use of central bank digital currencies and "tokenized euros" to support atomic settlements, in order to avoid being locked into U.S. private dollar tokens on critical financial infrastructure.