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Glassnode co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft stated that the current low volatility environment of Bitcoin (BTC) does not necessarily indicate an investment opportunity, and the market may be forming a "volatility trap."Schultze-Kraft pointed out that the implied volatility of BTC is currently in the lowest 2% range of historical distribution, but the volatility level priced in the options market is still about 1.5 times that of the actual market volatility performance.He noted that the "volatility trap score" constructed by Glassnode has currently reached 91/100, the highest level in over 3.5 years. Schultze-Kraft believes that although the current market appears to be in an extremely low volatility state, the options prices do not fully reflect the actual trends, and the volatility premium paid by investors may be relatively high.This indicator shows that the market is experiencing a rare phase of volatility compression. Historically, similar extreme low volatility environments often create conditions for subsequent volatility expansion, but the specific direction still depends on capital flows, the macro environment, and market catalysts.

On-chain detective Specter posted on the X platform, stating that considering the time period covered by the stolen data, this could mean that the data breach occurred as early as April, and no later than early May. However, the parties involved chose to remain silent until recently, roughly at the same time Trezor announced its own data breach.Some users had already received phishing attacks and suffered asset losses at that time, but the parties involved did not maintain transparency, warn users, or provide risk alerts, instead denying the data breach.

Renowned trader Killa posted that Bitcoin has currently returned above the Mayer multiple of 0.8, after previously dipping below this level. He pointed out that in 2022, BTC also briefly fell below this level, only to recover afterwards.Killa stated that the real confirmation signal in 2022 came when Bitcoin regained the 200-day moving average, after which the bull market began. Currently, BTC's 200-day moving average is approximately $69,500. He believes that next, we just need to wait for Bitcoin to break through and stabilize above the 200-day moving average; once this action is completed, the market can be considered to have officially turned into a bull market.

Crypto analyst Ali Charts posted that, based on Bitcoin's four-year cycle, he expects BTC to reach the market bottom between October 6 and 16.He believes that before the final capitulation phase arrives, investors should develop a dollar-cost averaging strategy in the range of $62,000 to $48,000, gradually accumulating Bitcoin. He assesses that the current bear market is nearing its end and states that now is the time to start turning bullish.

As of August 15, Bitcoin miners' holdings have dropped to approximately 1.1919 million BTC, a decrease of 885 coins from a week ago, marking a new low since May 31.During the same period, the overall network hash rate has declined, and the Puell Multiple remains at 0.75.

Coinbase posted on the X platform stating that AiFi-related content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations.Trading involves significant risks and may result in the loss of the entire investment. Users must make their own decisions regarding all activities of the AI agent and bear all risks associated with the transactions executed by the AI agent and the use of their data by third-party AI providers.

According to CCTV Finance, a very rare scene this week is that Jensen Huang teamed up with six Wall Street asset management giants to endorse "making AI computing power an independent asset class." Analysts believe this is Jensen Huang practicing the concept of token economics he proposed, and it also marks that the AI boom is extending from a technological competition to a capital competition.However, the latest plan has also raised investors' concerns about "revolving financing" and debt risks. In response to the doubts, Jensen Huang once again personally stepped in to calm the market. He stated that Nvidia might "provide up to 25% residual value support mechanism for individual investment projects" and will carefully evaluate each project. After that, market sentiment was slightly alleviated.

The French Minister of Finance confirmed that hackers breached the French Public Finance Directorate system at the end of June and stole personal and corporate taxpayer data. According to the platform FrenchBreaches, which tracks cyberattacks in France, this incident affected approximately 678,437 people, equivalent to about 1% of the French population, but the exact number is still under investigation and has not been finally confirmed.The leaked data reportedly includes sensitive information such as names, birth dates, home addresses, phone numbers, email addresses, tax identification information, and income data. Among them, nearly 27,000 individuals had tax incomes of at least 100,000 euros, 386 exceeded 1 million euros, and another 8 exceeded 10 million euros. Reports indicate that the database has been sold on the dark web market for thousands of euros. The attackers, calling themselves ZeroBytes, claimed they extracted the relevant records using an internal search tool, which was only discovered later when access was cut off.This incident has raised concerns in the cryptocurrency industry, as there has been a noticeable increase in "wrench attack" violent robbery incidents targeting cryptocurrency holders in France in recent years. If high-income individuals' addresses and contact information are leaked, it could provide criminals with a more precise target list.

Elon Musk stated that due to insufficient power supply and difficulties in ground facility approvals, orbital computing (i.e., space computing platforms) may be the only way to scale AI on a large scale by around 2029.

Grayscale Research Director Zach Pandl stated that the two major blockchain networks, Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), are considering adjusting their token economic models to enhance asset scarcity by reducing future token supply growth through lowering annual inflation rates. As important native assets supporting stablecoins and tokenized asset ecosystems, the prices of ETH and SOL are primarily determined by supply and demand dynamics. If the relevant code upgrade proposals are approved, under unchanged conditions, lower supply growth may provide support for token prices.According to Grayscale's analysis, if the relevant adjustments are implemented, the supply inflation rates of BTC, ETH, and SOL will continue to decline over the next five years. By the end of 2031, the annual inflation rates for Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to be around 0.4%, and Solana around 1.1%, which is lower than gold's annual supply growth rate of about 1.8% and the U.S. CPI inflation level of about 3.3%. Currently, these token economic adjustments are still in the community discussion phase. Among them, the Solana-related proposal has gained broader support and has a higher likelihood of implementation; the Ethereum proposal still requires further discussion.If the adjustments are implemented, staking users may face reduced token rewards, as part of the staking income comes from the issuance of new tokens. However, due to the decline in the growth rate of circulating supply, the scarcity value of the tokens may increase, potentially providing price support. For ETH and SOL holders who do not participate in staking, they may benefit directly; the final returns for stakers will depend on the balance between the decrease in rewards and the increase in prices. Zach Pandl concluded that ETH and SOL are becoming important digital commodities supporting stablecoins and the tokenization of real assets, and the economic model adjustments aimed at reducing inflation may further strengthen their scarcity attributes.

The Ukrainian government stated that the remaining Black Sea ports in the Greater Odessa region are essentially closed due to Russian airstrikes, and its planned agricultural exports may be halved, posing a risk to global food supply.

Famous trader Killa posted that Bitcoin is continuing to decline, and the key now is whether it can maintain the current range and stay above $60,000. He believes that if BTC can still fluctuate above $60,000, a temporary low may form near the current price area.On the other hand, if BTC breaks below $60,000 and loses the current range, the possibility of further declines for the remainder of August will significantly increase. If it drops below $60,000 from the current position, it may further decline to below $57,000. Conversely, if BTC can maintain its structure and regain a foothold above $61,000 to $62,000, he expects Bitcoin may rebound back into the range for the remainder of August.

Tonight at 20:30, we will once again welcome the U.S. July retail sales data, known for its "terrifying data" reputation. This data will directly reflect the consumption willingness and purchasing power of American residents, serving as a key barometer for determining whether the economy is experiencing a soft landing or a stall.If the data is significantly stronger than expected, it may reinforce the narrative that "the economy still has resilience," boosting the dollar and dampening interest rate cut expectations; if it is significantly weaker than expected, it may exacerbate recession concerns and further boost precious metals and risk-averse sentiment.

According to CoinDesk, the index provider MSCI has launched a new round of consultations, proposing to exclude so-called "non-operating companies" from its Global Investable Market Indexes. This classification will no longer use the proportion of crypto assets as the sole threshold but will adopt a two-step screening process: first, it will check whether operating assets exceed 50% of total assets; those that do not pass will then be assessed based on five financial ratios: operating asset intensity, expense intensity, cash flow, fair value intensity, and capital dependence. If at least four of these do not meet the standards, they will not qualify for inclusion.If the current data is applied to the MSCI ACWI IMI Index, Bitcoin-holding companies Strategy (MSTR), Metaplanet (3350), and uranium holder Yellow Cake will be excluded. Strategy has cumulatively held approximately 840,400 BTC since 2020, while Metaplanet holds about 43,000 BTC. MSCI's description of "non-operating companies" refers to businesses that create value by accumulating and holding non-operating assets, have limited operating cash flow, and rely on external financing for expansion.The consultation for collecting opinions will end on September 30, with results expected to be announced around October 16; even if approved, the related adjustments will not take effect until the index review in November 2026 at the earliest. Previously, a consultation in October 2025 regarding "digital asset treasury" companies, which set a standard of 50% for crypto asset proportion, had caused market fluctuations and industry opposition, ultimately being postponed.

On-chain analyst Murphy stated that currently, all chips bought in BTC in 2025 are basically in a state of loss. Therefore, apart from wallet migrations, the reduction in the scale of 2025 chips likely means that holders are cutting losses and selling. Data shows that as of now, approximately 4.77 million BTC chips bought in 2025 remain, a decrease of 41.5% from the peak in December last year.From the downward trend, this group has experienced two phases: a rapid decrease in chips before February this year, and a significant slowdown in the rate of decline after February, although it still maintains a certain slope. Murphy believes that the 2025 chips may be the largest potential supply side in the current market scale. In contrast, the BTC chips formed in 2024, 2023, and 2022 have basically completed the release of high-level locked positions due to still having unrealized gains, and the slope of the curve is gradually flattening, indicating that the selling pressure from long-term holders is weakening.Historical data shows that during the bottom phases of the past two bear markets, high-level chips have shown a significant decline: at the bottom of the bear market in 2022, the chips bought at high levels in 2021 decreased by about 51%; at the bottom of the bear market in 2018, the chips bought at high levels in 2017 decreased by about 62%. If we refer to historical cycles, Murphy believes that in this bear market bottom phase, the reduction of high-level chips in 2025 may be in the range of 50%-60%, and the current decline of 41.5% indicates that there is still some room for release. However, this judgment has not yet considered the BTC bought by institutional investors such as spot ETFs and MicroStrategy, as this portion of chips is mostly in a long-term locked state, which may reduce the actual market supply pressure.

Former senior foreign exchange diplomat from Japan, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, stated that the yen is currently too weak, which may lead to a joint intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japan and the United States again.He expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in September and to raise them again in December or January next year, with a target rate of 1.5% to 1.75%.

According to The Defiant, Geoff Kendrick, the Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank, stated that the previously set target price of $100 for UNI by the end of 2030 may be too low. Kendrick pointed out that the protocol fee burn rate for Uniswap on the Robinhood Chain exceeded previous expectations.Data shows that from July 27 to August 12, the average daily income of the Uniswap protocol was approximately $244,000, annualizing to about $89.1 million, all of which was used for repurchasing and burning UNI. Based on the current price of about $3.53, the annualized burn amount accounts for approximately 4% of the circulating supply (624.2 million tokens). Kendrick described this burn rate as "clearly unsustainable," and even with his target price of $6.5 by the end of 2026, the annualized burn rate would still reach 2.2%, which is also difficult to maintain in the long term, and does not account for more collaborations similar to Robinhood.In the recent 7 days, the total income of the Uniswap protocol was approximately $1.55 million, with the Robinhood Chain contributing about $925,000, accounting for about 60%. Uniswap has deployed v2, v3, v4, and UniswapX on this chain, becoming a major public AMM.

Leaker blogger leo claims that Google will launch Gemini 3.7 Flash as early as today. The API price may drop to $0.75 per million tokens for input and $3.75 for output. Currently, the standard prices for Gemini 3.6 Flash are $1.50 and $7.50, respectively. If the new prices are accurate, it would mean a direct cut in half.Gemini 3.7 Flash did not come out of nowhere. Google's official Python GenAI SDK had previously included gemini-3.7-flash, but then renamed the related PR to "internal" and closed it. The community has long speculated that the new model is nearing release.Even more concerning is Gemini 3.5 Pro. SemiAnalysis reported last week that Google has internally canceled this flagship model, with the team shifting focus to the larger-scale Gemini 4. leo also stated that he heard the same news.