may

Strategy founder Michael Saylor has once again released information related to the Bitcoin Tracker, stating: "Think Even ₿igger."According to previous

Due to the Kelp DAO attacker using stolen rsETH to collateralize and borrow ETH on Aave, Aave is suspected to have bad debts, with the specific amount currently unknown.Aave officials stated: "The rsETH market on Aave V3 and Aave V4 has been frozen. We are reviewing the rsETH borrowing information that occurred on Aave after the attack and will share more details as soon as possible. If the protocol has accumulated bad debts due to this incident, we will explore ways to compensate for the losses."OKX market shows that AAVE is currently at 105.15 USDT, down 9.56% in the last 24 hours.

According to Cointelegraph, Blockstream CEO Adam Back pointed out that Bitcoin's role as a store of value and the increasing institutional demand could drive its price to between $500,000 and $1,000,000 sooner than expected.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that a rapid resolution of the situation in the Middle East could allow the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts later this year.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the overall PCE inflation in March may reach 3.5% year-on-year.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the potential surge in energy prices could have a lasting impact on inflation.

According to Reuters, U.S. President Trump stated that he may go to Islamabad once an agreement is reached, but no decision has been made yet. There may be more negotiations regarding the Iran agreement this weekend.

French Finance Minister Roland Lescure stated that Europe needs more euro-denominated stablecoins and encouraged EU banks to explore tokenized deposits, a statement seen as a potential shift in the position of the French government and central bank.Lescure publicly supports the Qivalis alliance, composed of 12 European banks including BBVA, ING, UniCredit, and BNP Paribas, which plans to launch a euro-pegged stablecoin in the second half of 2026 to address the dominance of the dollar in the digital payments space. He pointed out that the current scale of euro stablecoins is far lower than that of dollar stablecoins, which is "unsatisfactory," and emphasized that promoting relevant developments is "exactly what we need." In contrast, former Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire had a strong opposition to privately issued stablecoins, believing they threaten monetary sovereignty; recently, French central bank governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau also warned that stablecoins and tokenized currencies could pose risks of "monetary privatization." Analysts believe that France's latest statement may signal a more pragmatic approach in Europe regarding stablecoin and digital currency policies, attempting to seek a balance between regulation and innovation.

According to CoinDesk, Glassnode's Bitcoin on-chain metric RHODL ratio is currently at 4.5, which is the third highest level on record, and the signals it emits are more aligned with a market bottom rather than a cycle top.The RHODL ratio compares the value of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (holding for 6 months to 3 years) to that held by short-term holders (holding for 1 day to 3 months). An increase in the ratio typically reflects a longer holding period for chips and reduced speculative activity, rather than an influx of new buyers—this dynamic has occurred after significant corrections in 2015, 2019, and 2022. During the 50% drop in Bitcoin over the past six months, young speculative chips have been largely washed out, concentrating wealth among long-term holders.Historically, the RHODL ratio has only been higher than the current level twice: in 2015 (ratio of 5) and in 2022 (ratio of 7), both corresponding to cycle bottoms, which suggests that Bitcoin may still have further downside potential. However, to push the ratio to higher levels, it typically requires the activity of short-term holders to be nearly exhausted, and this condition is not yet evident under current circumstances—Bitcoin has rebounded about 25% from its February low, perpetual contract funding rates remain negative, and the S&P 500 has also reached an all-time high.Overall, this indicator suggests that the current market conditions are closer to an adjustment within the cycle rather than a cycle top formation, and the re-dominance of long-term holders in the market may indicate that a phase bottom is approaching.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently priced at $74,700, down 0.4% in the last 24 hours. News of ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran has boosted risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 index reaching a record high on Thursday. Trump stated that the prospects for a permanent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran "look very optimistic," claiming that Iran has agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions, hand over nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although Iran has not yet confirmed these concessions.Meanwhile, the market is closely monitoring the structural signals behind Bitcoin's price movements. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria stated, "The funding rate is so negative that it indicates the market is heavily short. If Bitcoin continues to rise in this context, a large number of short positions may be forced to close, further accelerating the price upward." He predicts that if the short base is forced to cover, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 within the next 30 to 60 days.On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt provided another perspective: Bitcoin's "True Market Mean" (TMM) shows that the average cost basis of active holders is currently above the market price, indicating that holders are overall in a state of unrealized losses. Since 2016, consistently falling below this mean has often coincided with Bitcoin's most severe downturns, including the bear market from 2018 to 2019 (with a maximum drop of 57%, lasting 282 days) and the decline following the Luna and FTX collapses from 2022 to 2023 (with a maximum drop of 56%, lasting 339 days).Analysts point out that these two judgments are not mutually exclusive—the short squeeze triggered by the extremely negative funding rate and the structural pressure of overall unrealized losses among active holders can coexist. The former may trigger a significant rise, but ultimately could be absorbed by selling from the latter. The future market direction may depend on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire can be sustained after its expiration next week.

According to Cointelegraph, former U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson warned that U.S. authorities should prepare short-term, targeted emergency plans in advance for the potential collapse of future U.S. Treasury demand. He stated that once a crisis occurs, the impact will be severe. The U.S. Treasury market is seen as the cornerstone of the global financial system, and if it becomes unstable, it could affect the pricing of corporate bonds, mortgages, and stocks.The report pointed out that if a crisis weakens confidence in the dollar, it could drive funds toward alternative value storage assets like Bitcoin and gold; however, Tether, which uses U.S. Treasuries as its main reserve asset, may also face redemption and de-pegging risks.

According to a report by Jinshi, StoneX analyst Matt Simpson stated in a research report that based on technical analysis, the US dollar index may see a slight increase in the short term. Currently, the US dollar index is maintaining around the level of 98.249, and on Thursday, the 200-day simple moving average formed a "slightly bullish" pattern, with the two-day relative strength index in an extremely oversold condition. However, there are multiple resistance levels, including the 200-day exponential moving average at 98.44 that the bulls need to test.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong posted on the X platform: "The agent business has not yet been fully priced by the market. Machine-to-machine payments will drive demand for digital dollars beyond current expectations. The scale of the agent economy may surpass that of the human economy, and Coinbase is building infrastructure for both."

According to Decrypt, Charles Schwab President and CEO Rick Wurster stated that the company may offer prediction market services in the future, but will focus on financial event-related contracts such as inflation, avoiding themes like pop culture, politics, and sports.Previously, Charles Schwab announced that it would launch Bitcoin and Ethereum trading services in the coming weeks, with a transaction fee rate of 0.75%. The company also plans to gradually expand its cryptocurrency business, including opening digital asset deposit and withdrawal functions, and increasing the range of supported tokens.

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments from lawyers representing the prediction market platform Kalshi and Nevada authorities regarding Nevada's ban on the platform's event contracts. This appeal stems from a lower court ruling that prohibited Kalshi from offering certain event-based contracts in Nevada based on the claim that Kalshi requires a license.The appellate court judges responsible for Thursday's oral arguments and Kalshi's lawyers acknowledged that there have been several state-level enforcement actions against Kalshi and other prediction market platforms, including criminal charges filed in Arizona. However, a federal court last week blocked Arizona authorities from enforcing the state's gambling laws against Kalshi's event contracts."I believe existing case law does indicate that what we want to avoid here is state courts and federal courts simultaneously considering the exact same issue and potentially reaching different conclusions," said Colleen Sinzdak, representing Kalshi.The core argument of Kalshi's debate is that the platform's event contracts fall under "swap" transactions and should be regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, rather than state gambling regulators. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig supported this position in the case involving Crypto.com's prediction market and Nevada authorities.Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal predicted that this case may be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court. "The questions in the oral arguments are not a reliable signal of the court's leanings; nonetheless, I stand by my long-standing prediction that the Supreme Court will rule on whether sports contracts on designated contract markets fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the CFTC as swap transactions."

According to a report by The Block, Mizuho Bank research analysts released a report on Thursday stating that the financial feature X Money launched by Elon Musk's X platform has the potential to disrupt the U.S. payment industry, but the cryptocurrency integration plan may face regulatory obstacles.Mizuho analysts Dan Dolev and Andrew Jenkins wrote in a client report that X Money is positioned as the financial infrastructure layer of the X platform, aiming to integrate instant messaging, bank deposits, and commercial transaction functions, similar to the "super app" model of WeChat Pay or Alipay. With 500 to 600 million monthly active users on the X platform and Musk's background as a co-founder of PayPal in the payment industry, X Money has the potential to disrupt the U.S. payment industry.On the regulatory front, the analysts pointed out two major potential obstacles: first, the recent "CRYPTO Act" proposed in New York aims to criminalize unlicensed virtual currency operations in the state, which will raise the compliance threshold for X's future cryptocurrency integration plans; second, the "Clarity Act" may restrict non-bank financial platforms from offering yields to users, potentially hindering X Money's plan to provide users with an annualized yield of 6% on cash balances, with analysts stating that the timing for the launch of this yield product is "particularly sensitive."Mizuho also downgraded PayPal (PYPL) stock rating to "neutral," noting that PayPal and its Venmo app face the most direct substitution risk, as X is targeting the same peer-to-peer transfer and digital wallet entry points.This week, the X platform also launched a new feature called "Cashtags," allowing users to view financial data for stocks and cryptocurrencies directly in their timeline.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated a preference for three interest rate cuts this year, but it could also be four.

According to Jinshi reports, Federal Reserve Governor Milan stated that it is likely that there will only be three interest rate cuts for the remainder of this year.

CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten stated that the Bitcoin funding rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, and historical patterns show that such signals often coincide with market bottoms. According to Glassnode data, the seven-day moving average of the funding rate has dropped to about -0.005%.The funding rate is the fee that long and short positions pay each other periodically in perpetual contracts to keep the contract price aligned with the spot market. When the rate is positive, longs pay shorts, reflecting bullish market sentiment; when the rate is negative, shorts pay longs, indicating a bearish market. Despite the funding rate being persistently negative from March to April this year, Bitcoin still oscillated upward from the $60,000 to $65,000 range to about $75,000. Historically, a deeply negative funding rate often coincides with Bitcoin's phase bottoms: during the market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, Bitcoin fell to about $3,000; it dropped to $30,000 during China's mining ban announcement in 2021; it hit a low of about $15,000 during the FTX collapse in November 2022; and it briefly fell below $20,000 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023. During the yen arbitrage trade closure in August 2024 and the "Liberation Day" sell-off in April 2025, negative funding rates also appeared alongside phase lows. The continued negative funding rate indicates that even if the price trend is positive, short positions remain at a high level. This divergence may suggest that the market is climbing within a "wall of worry," and a large number of short positions could become fuel for further price increases.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $75,000, facing supply pressure, but institutional demand remains stable.Market sentiment is boosted by news of the extended ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The dollar has fallen to a near six-week low, and U.S. Treasury yields have also declined, conditions that typically support cryptocurrency prices; gold has risen in tandem, indicating that the market is seeking a balance between risk appetite and safe-haven demand.On-chain data shows that when prices reach a key cost benchmark for short-term holders, Bitcoin often experiences a supply surge. This level is around $76,800, which could constitute significant resistance, at which point investors may choose to take profits when breaking even.The newly established MSBT fund under Morgan Stanley has quickly attracted over $100 million in inflows due to the market's lowest fee rates, prompting competitors like Goldman Sachs to initiate a new round of competition.Meanwhile, the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and Iran's threats to disrupt shipping in the Persian Gulf continue to cast a shadow over the global economic outlook. The impact on energy supply has begun to raise inflation expectations, which may influence central bank policy direction and, in turn, affect the cryptocurrency market.