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first_img Variant Fund Investment Partner: The bottom of the cryptocurrency market may have appeared in July, and three types of assets will benefit from the market recovery

Variant Fund investment partner Alana Levin stated in her market thoughts for Q4 2026 that the bottom of the crypto market likely occurred at some point in July. She wrote in early July that the bottom seemed close, with Bitcoin at $59,000, Ethereum at $1,600, and ZEC at $420. She mentioned that the question has shifted to whether the bull market is genuinely starting or if it's a false rally, and which projects will benefit the most in the early bull market, assuming the market is in the early stages of a new crypto bull market.Levin indicated that the increasingly formed consensus is that marginal funds are most likely to flow into value storage protocols as currency and protocols that can generate income. She believes Bitcoin is the dominant asset for digital value storage currently, while other competing assets may be valued based on their market capitalization relative to Bitcoin's market cap and its changes. For income-generating protocols, she expects investors to examine whether the income comes from crypto-native activities (like Pump) or traditional financial activities (like Hyperliquid), whether it persists during market downturns, and profit margins; projects with exposure to real-world assets and stablecoin growth, which are expected to attract institutional users and are still led by founders after surviving a bear market, are more likely to achieve higher multiples.She also categorized on-chain projects that can benchmark against non-crypto businesses as a third category, believing that most belong to narrative trading rather than long-term investment. Themes include routing, reasoning, computing power, data collection, and interface-related directions in artificial intelligence, and she is skeptical about whether most scenarios require blockchain; if such projects significantly outperform, she would view it as a signal of nearing the top.

first_img Bitget updates on the security incident progress: the stolen amount is revised to 387.5 million USD, and the withdrawal recovery time will be announced before 12 PM tomorrow

Bitget TradFi Chief Growth Officer Xie Jiayin issued an update on the platform's security incident, stating that the withdrawal time will be announced before noon tomorrow. The security team has identified the hacker's attack path and methods, and has grasped the details of how the attacker bypassed security measures, coming very close to tracing the source of the attack. The incident investigation by third-party security teams Mandiant and SlowMist is still ongoing, with a detailed report pending from the security team.On-chain tracking confirms that approximately $387.5 million has been transferred to the hacker's address, previously estimated at $351.6 million. This revision includes ZEC and TRX, and no other unauthorized transfers have been found. Xie Jiayin stated that the stolen funds at the platform level will be fully covered by the Bitget User Protection Fund, ensuring that user assets are not subject to any losses.Bitget has officially launched a fund recovery bounty program, offering a 5% bounty for voluntarily freezing the attacker’s funds and a 5% bounty for voluntarily recovering funds. The bounty also applies to assistance already provided. The platform has published the attacker's address, a real-time tracking dashboard, and a submission portal, with relevant information also available for submission through Bybit's Lazarus bounty platform.

Analysis: The Bitcoin "Realized Market Value Momentum Indicator" has turned positive after 93 days, signaling a recovery in on-chain capital flow

The "Realized Cap Impulse" indicator for Bitcoin has recently ended a continuous 93-day negative state and has turned positive for the first time, marking the longest reversal signal after a capital contraction cycle since the bear market of 2022.This indicator measures the momentum of changes in the realized market capitalization by tracking the changes in realized cap, combined with factors of Bitcoin supply and price, to assess whether the flow of tokens with actual economic significance in the market is driving capital base expansion. The positive shift in the indicator does not merely reflect a price increase but indicates that the flow of funds within the Bitcoin network is changing.Data shows that the indicator broke above the zero axis on August 20 when the BTC price was around $73,000 and has maintained positive values for 8 consecutive days. Currently, the BTC price has risen to about $78,900, an increase of approximately 8% during this period.As of the latest, the indicator reading is 0.198, below the peak of 0.226 reached on August 26. Historical data indicates that similar signals at the end of bear markets have been accompanied by significant rebounds in Bitcoin: after the indicator turned positive in September 2015, Bitcoin rose about 160% within a year; after March 2019, it increased about 173% in 90 days; and after January 2023, it rose about 45% in 90 days, with a yearly increase of 104%.However, the realized cap momentum indicator is not an absolute signal of a cycle bottom. Similar positive shifts occurred in early 2018 and 2022, but the market did not immediately enter a sustained upward phase afterward. Analysts believe that the indicator's continued positive value, confirmed by price trends, is more valuable than a single-day breakthrough above the zero axis.
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