wintermute

Wintermute stated that the market experienced two distinct phases last week: the first half of the week was driven by ceasefire expectations, with the Nasdaq rising 4.5%, Bitcoin up 2.6%, and the VIX falling below 20. Over the weekend, talks in Islamabad broke down, and the U.S. announced a comprehensive maritime blockade on Iranian ports, causing Brent crude oil to surge 8% in a single day, returning above $103, leading risk assets to give back their gains.On the macro front: U.S. March CPI rose 3.3% year-on-year, with core CPI slightly below expectations at 2.6%. The market believes this is still a concentrated energy shock rather than widespread inflation. Asian markets saw a slight decline overnight, with Nasdaq futures steady. The market's reaction to each new piece of news is weakening, suggesting that it may have priced in the worst-case scenario or is becoming complacent.In terms of crypto assets: Bitcoin closed up 2.6% last week but did not lead the gains. The price has been consolidating in the $65,000-$73,000 range for over two months. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $22.3 million last week, while Ethereum ETFs continued to bleed, with outflows reaching $327 million year-to-date. Open interest in perpetual contracts has stabilized in the $28-30 billion range.Options traders' gamma exposure in the $68,000-$72,000 range indicates that hedging activities will amplify bidirectional volatility within that range. Wintermute believes that the ceasefire trade is dead, and the market is returning to an escalation trend. However, the market's reaction function is weakening. Confirmation of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could push Bitcoin to break above $75,000, while continued escalation may keep prices in a range-bound fluctuation with a downward tendency. The earnings season may partially shift market attention back to fundamentals, which could change the positioning behavior at the edges of the range.

According to CoinDesk, Ron Hammond, the policy head of crypto market maker Wintermute, stated that the legislative process for the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, is still hindered by multiple factors, with a probability of passing this year at about 30%.The bill aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC in the regulation of digital assets, but the current negotiation progress is uneven, with the timeline repeatedly delayed. The main resistance comes from traditional banking institutions, particularly around the significant disagreements regarding whether stablecoins should offer yields. Compromise proposals have been blocked multiple times, and additionally, the internal divisions within the Democratic Party, as well as issues related to DeFi compliance and anti-money laundering, add uncertainty to the legislation.However, Ron Hammond believes there is still room for the bill to advance, but whether it can be enacted within the year depends on whether key disagreements can be resolved.

Wintermute released its latest weekly report, stating that the current macro situation was entirely driven by geopolitical news last week: On Tuesday, the Iranian president signaled a ceasefire, causing the S&P 500 to surge about 2.9%, and Brent crude oil fell to $105; however, on Wednesday, Trump made a tough speech, promising "extremely severe" strikes against Iran for 2-3 weeks and showing no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, leading WTI crude oil to soar 11% to over $111 on Thursday, while Asian markets plummeted.On Sunday, Trump threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants on Tuesday, while also stating that it was "very likely" an agreement would be reached before Monday. Reports indicate that a 45-day ceasefire framework is under discussion. The current 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.36% (up 40bp since the conflict began), and swap market pricing shows a zero probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve meeting on April 28-29. PCE data will be released on Thursday, with the market watching whether the impact of oil prices will transmit to the Fed's preferred inflation indicators.In terms of digital assets, Bitcoin only rose 2% last week, with the fear and greed index at 9 (extreme fear), and social sentiment reaching the most bearish level since the conflict began. Institutional buying remains a key support, with net inflows into ETFs in March at $1.32 billion (the strongest since October 2025), Strategy increasing its holdings by 44,000 Bitcoins, and Morgan Stanley approved to list a spot ETF at a 14bp fee rate.However, in the last week of March, ETFs turned to outflows of $414 million, and the ratio of exchange whales rose from 0.34 in January to 0.79, while over-the-counter trading data also showed institutions shifting from buying to neutral to net selling. Ethereum performed well (+4.2%), with staking yields becoming a differentiated advantage in a "higher for longer" interest rate environment.Solana dropped below $80 due to a hack of the Drift protocol (resulting in a loss of $285 million, marking the second-largest hack in Solana's history). Wintermute stated that the Tuesday deadline for the Strait of Hormuz is a critical juncture. The 45-day ceasefire framework is the most concrete de-escalation effort since the conflict began, but damage to Iranian energy facilities, Gulf refineries, and port logistics has already occurred, and even a full ceasefire cannot restore pre-war shipping capacity overnight. If the "power plant day" threat materializes on Tuesday and Iran retaliates, the risk premium for oil prices will be immediately rebuilt.

According to Arkham data, at 21:04, 1829.86 BTC (worth approximately 2.838 million USD) was transferred from Hyperunit to Wintermute.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, after a security incident of approximately $285 million occurred at Drift Protocol, FTX / Alameda sold 6.94 million DRIFT through Wintermute 6 hours ago, worth about $320,000.Data shows that Alameda previously acquired about 8.33 million DRIFT as an investor through vesting unlock, which was worth approximately $6.22 million at that time, and the current corresponding value has dropped to about $380,000.

According to Arkham data, at 15:19, 137.87 BTC (worth approximately $3.5877 million) was transferred from an anonymous address (starting with bc1qcd...) to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 23:06, 249,000 SOL (worth approximately 19.68 million USD) was transferred from an anonymous address (starting with 9PYnN...) to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 21:30, 151 BTC (worth approximately 10 million USD) was transferred from Coinbase to an anonymous address (starting with 1KbDEg...). Subsequently, that address transferred 151 BTC to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 16:11, 51.43 BTC (worth approximately 2.9969 million USD) was transferred from OKX to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 04:58, 39,300 SOL (worth approximately 3.24 million USD) was transferred from Binance to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 03:55, 507.92 BTC (worth approximately 34.1 million USD) was transferred from Wintermute to Anchorage Digital.

According to Arkham data, at 03:12, 110,288.999991 SOL (worth approximately 9.2367 million USD) was transferred from Wintermute to Binance.

According to Arkham data, at 19:23, Wintermute transferred 2.5 million USDT, worth 2.5 million dollars, to an anonymous address (starting with TRceF...).

According to Arkham data, at 06:26, 3,487.19 BNB (worth approximately 2.15 million USD) was transferred from an anonymous address (starting with 0xAB44d...) to Wintermute.

According to Arkham data, at 05:39, 43.7 BTC (worth approximately 2.97 million USD) was transferred from OKX to Wintermute.

This month, RootData launched a roadshow for companies in the cryptocurrency industry segmentation, presenting representative projects that are still committed to being Builders to the market based on transparency. Today, the second issue is released------the cryptocurrency market maker segment, with nearly 40 companies still in operation included in the statistics.Specifically, market makers such as Galaxy Digital, Wintermute, GSR, DWF Labs, Jane Street, and Amber Group have transparency scores above 70%, placing them in the first tier of this segment. Additionally, 19 market maker projects have transparency scores below 60%, with most failing to disclose data such as team information, funding, or market-making tokens, indicating a need for further improvement.It is reported that RootData's transparency score is based on a comprehensive evaluation of investor background, team completeness, roadmap delivery, and news popularity. The higher the transparency score, the stronger the project's strength and stability.

Market maker Wintermute's latest market weekly report indicates that the ratio of Bitcoin perpetual contract trading volume to spot trading volume has risen to 15 times, while the funding rate volatility has dropped to a low point in this cycle, showing that market leverage is high but there is insufficient directional consensus. The current structure is closer to "compression and accumulation," or brewing significant unilateral volatility.Wintermute believes that if geopolitical tensions ease and oil prices fall back to around $100, short positions will face the risk of being squeezed to between $70,000 and $74,000. If the situation continues to ease, the resistance level at $74,000 may be tested.Conversely, if the situation escalates further and oil prices rise to $120, oil prices could drop to just above $60, and if the cyclical trend is similar, it could fall to the mid-high $50,000 range. More macro-wise, the directionality here is not important; what matters is the market structure itself. The leverage on futures contracts is high, capital flows are fluctuating within the narrowest range ever recorded, and volatility is also narrowing.Regarding which direction the catalysts ultimately develop, the market structure indicates that the resulting volatility will far exceed the levels currently reflected in spot, futures, and options prices.

According to Arkham data, at 16:34, 55.85 BTC (worth approximately $3.7558 million) was transferred from Wintermute to an anonymous address (starting with 1JaLcW...).

According to Ember Monitoring, 4.126 million ZRO (worth approximately $8.17 million) was transferred from an FTX/Alameda wallet to Wintermute 8 hours ago. Subsequently, the price of ZRO dropped by 6% (from $1.98 to $1.85) within a few hours.The wallet currently still holds 30.75 million ZRO (worth approximately $58.12 million), accounting for about 10% of the current circulating supply of ZRO.

According to Arkham data, at 05:24, 3.8098 million ZRO (worth approximately 7.35 million USD) was transferred from Wintermute to an anonymous address (starting with 0xf819...).