VanEck Analyst: Bitcoin Shows Two Historical Bullish Signals of Decreased Hash Rate and Negative Funding Rate

VanEck analysts Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush wrote an analysis stating that Bitcoin has shown two historically bullish signals: negative funding rates and a decline in hash rate concentration, while volatility has cooled down.

As tensions between the U.S. and Iran eased, Bitcoin's realized volatility dropped from 56% to 41%, while the 7-day average funding rate turned negative to -1.8%, marking the lowest level since 2023.

Historically, negative funding rates typically indicate strong future returns: since 2020, the average 30-day return for Bitcoin during periods of negative funding rates has been +11.5%, compared to an overall return of +4.5%, with a hit rate as high as 77%. Funding rates below -5% have brought a +19.4% return over a 30-day period.

Additionally, hash rate has fallen to the 16th percentile in the past 30 days, marking the most concentrated decline since the mining ban in 2021. In the last 7 instances of hash rate decline, Bitcoin's price increased 6 times after 90 days, with a median increase of +37.7%.