murphy

Аналитик Мерфи заявил, что настроение на крипторынке вновь вернулось к состоянию «крайний страх». 12 ноября реализованные убытки долгосрочных и краткосрочных держателей, которые перешли на торговые платформы, достигли недавнего рекорда, а общий объем близок к минимумам медвежьего рынка в июне и июле этого года.Мерфи отметил, что рынок столкнулся с множеством экстремальных негативных факторов, включая черный лебедь Binance, победу демократов на промежуточных выборах, вызвавшую опасения по поводу ограничений на инфраструктуру ИИ, CPI, превысивший ожидания, резкое падение акций NVIDIA из-за скандала, а также исключение MSTR из индекса MSCI. По его словам, степень этого кризиса, кроме 312 года 2020, превысила исторические показатели за тот же период. Он недооценил силу коллективного страха и силы коротких позиций, и под влиянием иррационального поведения все технические уровни поддержки оказались неэффективными.Мерфи также раскрыл, что его личные активы ETH застряли на уровне 2260 долларов, MSTRB на уровне 136 долларов, а его крупные позиции в BTC значительно уменьшили прибыль, но он выбрал сохранить свои позиции. Он по-прежнему считает, что период с февраля по ноябрь этого года не является «продолжением медвежьего рынка», а представляет собой переходный период после выхода из медвежьего дна, и заявил, что как только появятся признаки улучшения настроения и резонанса индикаторов, он будет только наращивать позиции на низах.

According to analyst Murphy, the Bitcoin Profit Supply Percentage (PSIP) fell below the 65% "threshold line" between November 22 and 23, indicating a dangerous market sentiment. Currently, the PSIP has rebounded to 67.6%, but it remains in the critical range of 65%-70%, which could either lead to a recovery of confidence or trigger panic if it moves downward.Historical data shows that when the PSIP is below 50%, it typically indicates a bear market bottom. Previously, it was predicted that BTC would need to drop below $59,000 to reach that level, but the latest estimate has been adjusted to below $62,000. Analysts believe that BTC below $62,000 may present a high-value investment opportunity, but patience is still required to wait for market changes.

Analyst Murphy pointed out that, based on current data observations, it is not difficult for BTC to return to $90,000, and $90,000 is not a strong resistance level.The average cost of short-term holders shows that BTC may only encounter significant selling pressure when entering the range of $92,000 to $99,000. At the same time, options market data indicates that the call activity at the $92,000 strike price is significantly higher than at $90,000, especially the sell calls at $92,000 far exceed those at $90,000, which will lead to strong resistance in the market.Murphy emphasized that the key battle for BTC above $92,000 is the core area that determines the trend, especially close to the $98,000 position, which is the "fair price" line for BTC over the past decade.However, the recent market has been hindered by a large amount of realized losses, leading to a lack of effective buying power in the short term. The future trend of BTC still needs to pay attention to market sentiment and the performance of key resistance zones.

ChainCatcher message, on-chain data analyst Murphy stated that the market is entering a period of low volatility and high concentration, with the 7-day change rate of STH-RP (Short-Term Holder Realized Price) at only 0.69%, indicating that the participation of short-term investors has dropped to a freezing point, similar to the sideways periods in February and May of 2025, which may suggest that a market shift is imminent.

ChainCatcher message, on-chain data analyst Murphy released a market analysis indicating that the perpetual contract volume difference (VDB) measures the short-term trend (30-day average) of the buying and selling power difference in the recent futures market relative to a longer-term market benchmark (90-day median). This is used to determine whether the current market is bullish or bearish, and to observe whether this power is strengthening.Since early August, the VDB on Binance and other trading platforms has fallen into negative territory, indicating that perpetual contract traders—who are a more speculative group in this market—have increasingly developed a bearish tendency in the subsequent periods. However, this indicator is highly volatile, so a comparison of "short-term" and "mid-term" is used to observe the direction and degree of the shift, in order to confirm whether this negative tendency will develop into a sustained trend.The current trend of VDB has begun to gradually reverse, indicating that bullish sentiment is recovering and traders' bearish tendencies are gradually weakening. Based on past data, if this trend continues, the market is expected to experience a rebound. This analysis is for learning and communication purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.

ChainCatcher news, according to Bloomberg, a spokesperson for Digital Currency Group (DCG) stated that DCG has undergone a series of internal restructuring to position itself for the next phase of development, including streamlining departments and promoting leadership teams. DCG has promoted Mark Murphy from Chief Operating Officer to President, appointed Jenn Goodson as Chief Administrative Officer, Simon Koster as Chief Strategy Officer, Matt Kummell as Senior Vice President of Operations, and Amanda Cowie to oversee communications, marketing, and events. Additionally, this restructuring has resulted in a 10% reduction in staff, with 66 employees leaving. (Bloomberg)