Arthur Hayes: The acceleration of currency printing is imminent, and investors should boldly increase their holdings in crypto assets
ChainCatcher news, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that the current crypto bull market has just begun, and investors should boldly take a left turn, holding and increasing their positions.Hayes pointed out that 2024 is a crucial year, as several major countries will hold presidential elections. In particular, the United States, where the ruling Democratic Party will do everything possible to secure re-election in order to reverse the Republican policies. In an election year, if the public feels the economy is in recession, the incumbent president's re-election probability will drop from 67% to 33%. Therefore, the ruling party, which controls monetary and fiscal policy, can simply increase government spending significantly to boost nominal GDP growth and create an illusion of no recession.Data shows that U.S. government spending accounts for 23% of nominal GDP, meaning that as long as the government is willing to borrow money, nominal GDP can be manipulated at will. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts, whether Biden or Trump takes office, the U.S. government's fiscal deficit will continue to expand in the future. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts surrounding the U.S. are escalating, and politicians are eager to continue providing billions of dollars in aid to allies.Hayes emphasized that as long as the government can borrow at rates lower than nominal GDP growth, politicians will continue to increase spending. Therefore, in the future, the scale of money printing will only become more exaggerated. He suggests that investors take full advantage of the recent cryptocurrency price pullback to gradually build their positions. As the summer in the Northern Hemisphere approaches, the volatility in the crypto market will also decrease, making it an excellent entry point for non-pre-sale round investors. Unless real interest rates turn positive, investors should remain optimistic and let the winners continue to run.
