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分析:比特幣與日本 10 年期國債呈負相關,若日本央行穩定國債或將推動比特幣反彈

2026-01-23 21:05:13

ChainCatcher 消息,Delphi Digital 發文表示,比特幣價格停滯不前,而黃金持續上漲。原因可能在於日本國債。通常,收益率上升會增加持有無收益資產的機會成本,從而給黃金施壓。但當黃金和收益率同步上漲時,市場實際上是在定價政策壓力和資產負債表脆弱性,而非經濟增長。日本 10 年期國債收益率目前高於長期均值約 3.65 個標準差。日本銀行在結構上持有長期債券,且在資產和抵押品方面都深度暴露於日本國債。

黃金正在吸收這種壓力,而比特幣則與日本 10 年期國債呈負相關,並且在更長期來看,隨著日本收益率上升,比特幣表現一直相對掙扎。如果日本央行介入以穩定國債市場,黃金中的風險溢價可能會緩解,比特幣也將獲得反彈空間。

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