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數據:BTC 觸及關鍵支撐位,波動率降低但防禦性倉位仍占主導

2026-06-19 17:41:01

ChainCatcher 消息,glassnode 發文表示,比特幣(BTC)在重新測試 2 月低點後回落至重要支撐區域。期權市場數據顯示,儘管價格接近關鍵水平,但隱含波動率已從近期高點明顯回落,1 週隱含波動率從約 60% 降至 35%,整體波動率曲線同步下移,市場對未來不確定性的定價明顯降溫。

同時,25Δ偏度也從拋售期間的極端水平回落,短期限保護需求有所正常化,顯示恐慌性對沖情緒正在減弱。不過,結構性防禦倉位仍占主導。數據顯示,短期限期權仍偏向下行保護,近一週看空期權成交占比約 28%,顯著高於看多期權買入比例(24.1%)。

同時,1 個月隱含波動率已低於實際波動率,市場出現"隱含波動率低估現實波動"的情況。在 62,000 美元附近存在顯著短 Gamma 集中區(約 18 億美元規模),若價格進一步下探可能加速波動放大,而在 60,000 美元附近則存在一定長 Gamma 緩衝區。整體來看,儘管波動率降溫,但市場仍處於偏防禦的倉位結構之中。

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