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Willy Woo:比特币大概率已觸底,牛市持續時間未知

2026-09-16 16:36:02

ChainCatcher 消息,加密分析師 Willy Woo 發文表示,"個人認為加密市場觸底的概率為 90%。基於長期投資者流動性正在回歸,目前處於早期牛市結構。判斷的核心是 BTC 的流動性結構;有意避開歷史週期規律,儘管這些週期規律迄今為止在判斷市場底部方面表現非常出色。按照週期規律進行判斷,其他分析師的共識概率約為 40%。

從流動性結構來看,目前屬於早期牛市,市場底部大概率已經出現。如果這個判斷正確,那麼接下來還有一個問題:這輪牛市究竟會持續多久?會持續 3 年嗎?我並不一定會押注這一點,因為歷史週期規律正在逐漸失效。只要投資者資金流入沒有明顯走弱,牛市結構就會持續,但持續時間目前無法確定。"。

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