U.S. Election: Will the MEME Theme Continue in 2024?

Author: Cycle Capital

Since the start of the U.S. elections, a series of election-related meme tokens have emerged. Following the Trump campaign team's public support for cryptocurrency donations, TRUMP became the main representative, reaching a market cap of $775 million at its peak. Due to Biden's more conservative stance on cryptocurrency, the market attention on tokens related to him is relatively lower. After Trump was convicted in the hush money case, the price of Trump-related tokens fell, while Biden-related meme tokens saw an increase. During the election period, who can become the President of the United States and the public statements regarding cryptocurrency attitudes influence the price trends of related tokens.

Candidates' Attitudes Towards Cryptocurrency

Trump

Trump has shifted his previously negative attitude towards cryptocurrency in this campaign, releasing a series of crypto-friendly statements, including "ensuring that the future of the crypto industry and Bitcoin happens in the U.S. will protect the self-custody rights of 50 million cryptocurrency holders across the country," and promising to pardon the Silk Road founder if elected.

His change in attitude towards cryptocurrency is not without precedent. At the end of 2022, Trump announced the issuance of limited edition Trump digital trading cards NFTs on Truth Social, and in 2023, he launched the "Win Trump Prizes" NFT on Polygon, with benefits including dining with Trump, signed memorabilia, and 1v1 meetings.

In May 2024, Trump's campaign team explicitly accepted cryptocurrency donations as campaign funds, officially confirming a crypto-friendly stance.

Biden

Biden's latest stance on cryptocurrency is reflected in his veto of the proposal to overturn SEC SAB 121. The core content of SAB 121 requires companies that custody cryptocurrencies to record customer-held cryptocurrencies as liabilities on their balance sheets. This has been considered overly stringent, hindering custodians or companies from holding cryptocurrencies on behalf of clients. In his veto letter, Biden stated that "overturning SAB 121 would weaken the SEC's authority in accounting matters" and that "his administration would not support measures that harm consumers and consumer welfare."

Therefore, compared to Trump, Biden's attitude towards cryptocurrency is more conservative. The next opportunity for Biden to express his stance on cryptocurrency will be the FIT 21 bill, which primarily provides a regulatory framework for digital assets, allocating jurisdiction over digital assets to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC") and the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") based on whether the relevant blockchain is "functional," "non-functional," or "decentralized." The bill has passed the House of Representatives and still needs to go through a Senate vote and presidential signing to become formal law.

SEC's Attitude Towards Cryptocurrency Regulation

During Trump's presidency from 2016 to 2020, he held a negative attitude towards cryptocurrency, and the SEC chairman was Jay Clayton. Jay Clayton took a cautious stance on cryptocurrencies, mainly cracking down on fraudulent ICO activities and crypto exchange platforms. The most typical cases were against Block.one, Ripple Labs, and Telegram (regarding Ton), while other cases were more focused on individuals or companies illegally issuing tokens.

Biden appointed Gary Gensler as SEC chairman in April 2021. Gary Gensler has stated that he is a "Bitcoin centrist minimalist," so in the early days of Gensler's tenure, the crypto industry speculated that his appointment as SEC chairman would be beneficial for crypto development. However, Gensler, like Clayton, holds a cautious attitude towards non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies, believing that "all tokens are securities." This statement seems to have loosened somewhat on June 5, 2024, but there is no clear crypto-friendly stance. During Gensler's tenure, the number of SEC cases against cryptocurrencies far exceeds those during Clayton's term, with a significant increase in cases against exchanges, including Poloniex, Coinbase, Bittrex, Binance, and Kraken. From the perspective of the number of SEC lawsuits against cryptocurrencies and the targets of these lawsuits, Biden's administration has a more conservative attitude towards cryptocurrency.

Note: From June 6, 2023, to December 31, 2023, there were 14 SEC cases against cryptocurrencies, and from January 1, 2024, to June 10, 2024, there were a total of 6 cases against cryptocurrencies that year.

Campaign Process

Key Campaign Timelines

From July 15 to July 18, the Republican National Convention will determine the Republican candidate and platform. Earlier, Trump had already secured the Republican nomination.

From August 19 to August 22, the Democratic National Convention will determine the Democratic candidate and platform. The candidate has been confirmed as Biden.

On June 27 and September 10, Biden and Trump will debate, which could significantly impact the final election results.

On November 5, the day of the presidential election.

Key Event: Impact of the Hush Money Case

Trump was convicted on all 34 counts in the "hush money" criminal case. The judge will announce the verdict on July 11, which could theoretically include imprisonment and hefty fines. Trump plans to appeal the "hush money" case. Even if convicted in the hush money case, it does not legally prevent Trump from continuing to run for President of the United States.

A survey by Ipsos and ABC News in April also indicated that 16% of Trump's supporters would reconsider their votes in the event of Trump's conviction. According to the latest tracking data from racetotheWH, there are currently 8.8% undecided voters, with Trump temporarily leading in support. If Trump is convicted and sentenced, the percentage of undecided voters could rise to 17%, with Biden's support surpassing Trump's.

The conviction in the hush money case has actually boosted Trump's fundraising. In April, he raised approximately $76 million, exceeding Biden's $51 million, and in disclosures from Trump's team in May, they raised over $400 million, primarily due to small donations, with an average donation amount of about $70. The specific amount will be announced at the end of June according to federal regulations. It is worth noting that at the beginning of the 2020 campaign, Trump's team also had substantial campaign funds, but by the end of the campaign, Biden's team was in a better financial position. Strong campaign funds can provide some advantages, but they do not guarantee the final election outcome.

The Importance of Cryptocurrency in the Election (Is There Potential for Repeated Speculation?)

On March 14, a poll released by Paradigm showed that 19% of registered voters in the U.S. own cryptocurrency, concluding that "one-fifth of the country's population is not a niche group." Cryptocurrency holders are willing to switch parties.

Swing states are the core battlegrounds of the campaign. According to polls, the main swing states this year are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with potential swing states being Nevada, North Carolina, and Minnesota.

According to a DGC survey in May targeting Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Arizona, 26% of respondents said they pay attention to candidates' positions on cryptocurrency, and 21% of respondents indicated that cryptocurrency is an important issue to consider during the election. 55% are concerned that policymakers will stifle innovation through excessive regulation, thus requiring the next president to be crypto-friendly.

According to a poll released by CBS News on April 29, voters in the three major swing states in the "Rust Belt" (Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Michigan) are most concerned about economic issues, primarily growth and inflation. Since Biden took office in the first quarter of 2021, the U.S. GDP has grown by over 8% after adjusting for inflation, but the economic growth in the aforementioned three "swing states" has lagged far behind the national average, particularly Wisconsin, where GDP has only grown by a total of 3.1% over nearly four years.

If candidates want to secure votes in swing states, economic issues remain central, and it is not ruled out that candidates may mention cryptocurrency again to attract younger voters.

U.S. Election-Themed Meme Tokens

As meme tokens corresponding to the election theme, their prices are highly volatile and involve more risks, including but not limited to: changes in candidates' attitudes towards cryptocurrency and shifts in campaign slogans, as well as a lower probability of exchanges listing these tokens. The content of this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.