Hotcoin Research | Market Insights: June 22–29, 2024

Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.4 trillion, with BTC accounting for 54.21%, valued at $1.28 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $153.1 billion.

This week, BTC's price fluctuated between $64,000 and $67,000. Notably, although there was a net outflow of $544 million from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF, crypto whales continued to accumulate. For example, MicroStrategy used the proceeds from convertible bonds and excess cash to acquire an additional 11,931 BTC at a price of $65,883 per BTC, totaling $786 million. As of June 20, MicroStrategy holds a total of 226,331 BTC, with an acquisition cost of approximately $8.33 billion, averaging $36,798 per BTC.

This week, altcoins experienced a widespread decline, with a few standout projects such as CVX, which saw a 60% increase over the past week. Recently, ZkSync and LayerZero faced community dissatisfaction due to their airdrop mechanisms.

The "Fear & Greed Index" stands at 53, with 2 days classified as neutral and 5 days as greedy.

Understanding the Present

Weekly Major Events Recap

1. David Hirsch, head of the SEC's crypto assets and cyber unit, has left the agency;

2. LayerZero launched a new community role system aimed at rewarding community members, developers, and content creators;

3. Coinbase International and Coinbase Advanced will launch a Pre-Launch market, allowing trading of perpetual futures contracts for tokens that have not yet been issued;

4. Bloomberg analysts expect the Ethereum spot ETF to launch before July 4;

5. Consensys: The SEC is concluding its investigation into Ethereum 2.0 and will not accuse ETH sales of being securities transactions;

6. Bitcoin trading platform reserves have dropped to a nearly three-year low, indicating low selling pressure and potential supply shocks;

7. The Eigen Foundation announced that the second phase of the EIGEN airdrop for Q1 is now open for claims, with Q2 currently ongoing;

8. Jupiter co-founder Meow announced the draft of the J4J plan, proposing a 30% reduction in the total supply of JUP;

9. Arthur Hayes analyzed that the Bank of Japan may sell U.S. Treasuries on a large scale, and if the Federal Reserve prints money to buy back these Treasuries, it could bring a new wave of liquidity to the cryptocurrency market, potentially boosting a bull market;

10. 3iQ has submitted a preliminary prospectus for the Solana fund to be listed in Canada, which will be North America's first Solana ETP;

11. NFT project Azuki has hired former Hollywood executive Steve Chung as COO to leverage his expertise to expand its fan base and revenue;

12. Gemini co-founders Winklevoss brothers donated $1 million worth of Bitcoin to Trump's campaign team and stated they would support Trump in the election;

13. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating Jump Crypto, and it is unclear whether any charges will be brought against the company.

Macroeconomics

1. Consensys: The SEC is concluding its investigation into Ethereum 2.0 and will not accuse ETH sales of being securities transactions;

2. CME FedWatch: The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in August is 88.6%;

3. Fed's Collins: The Federal Reserve has made "significant progress" in reducing inflation, and there may be one or two rate cuts in 2024.

ETF

According to statistics, from June 17 to 21, there was a net outflow of $544 million from the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF; as of June 22, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $18.36 billion, currently holding $17.883 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $19.633 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $58.143 billion.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. The Blockchain Association of Zhejiang University will hold an offline event themed "AI + Web3 Workshop" on June 22, 2024, at 14:00 in Hangzhou, with guests including ZJUBCA President Artist, ZJUBCA Vice President Freya, Pond core contributor SANZHI, The Graph APAC community and ecosystem head Anthony, and The Graph community technical support Jerry;

2. IVS2024 KYOTO will be held from July 4 to 6 in Kyoto, Japan, themed "Crossing Borders," gathering Japanese startups and focusing on how Web2, Web3, and AI are shaping the world.

Project Progress

1. The whitelist registration for the zkVerifier Node of the modular computing layer & ZKRaaS platform Lumoz is open until June 24 at 15:00. The Lumoz zkVerifier Node is a crucial part of the Lumoz network, primarily responsible for verifying execution results. The sale of Lumoz zkVerifier Nodes is limited to 200,000, on a first-come, first-served basis. All global users can participate in the whitelist registration, purchase, and contribute to the operation of the entire network, earning rewards such as 40 million Lumoz points (before mainnet launch), 25% Lumoz Token mining (after mainnet launch), and potential token airdrops from the Lumoz ecosystem's new chain;

2. The Ethereum L2 network Blast airdrop will start on June 26, with Blast stating that due to a slight delay from the initial estimate in May, the airdrop allocation will be increased;

3. The next halving date for the BitTorrent ecosystem file storage network BTFS is set for June 25 at 00:00 UTC (June 26 at 08:00 Beijing time);

4. Tap Protocol token TAP will be launched on June 28;

5. The Ignition Q3 event of the Solana ecosystem DePIN protocol io.net will be open from June 1 to June 30.

Important Events

1. Canada will impose capital gains tax on stocks and cryptocurrencies starting June 25, with rates ranging from 50% to 67%, affecting individuals with annual capital gains exceeding CAD 250,000. There is no tax on purchasing or holding cryptocurrencies; however, cryptocurrency sales, mining activities, and other transactions will be taxed as business income or capital gains. Individual cryptocurrency holders must pay tax on 50% of their total capital gains, while professional traders (day traders) must pay tax on 100% of their profits;

2. The Zimbabwean government is seeking opinions on regulating cryptocurrency operations and hopes to receive comments by June 26;

3. Hungary is advancing a legislative proposal introduced by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, which plans to allow banks, investment funds, and asset management companies to provide cryptocurrency market services, with the Hungarian central bank responsible for regulating cryptocurrency services. This legislation will take effect on June 30;

4. The new stablecoin rules under the EU's Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework will come into effect on June 30, 2024, impacting the entire European Economic Area (EEA) stablecoin and broader digital asset markets;

5. The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) is reviewing blockchain MEV (Maximum Extractable Value) to determine if it constitutes market manipulation, with the public feedback deadline set for the end of June.

Token Unlocks

1. AltLayer (ALT) will unlock 105 million tokens on June 25, valued at approximately $20.92 million, accounting for 6.92% of the circulating supply;

2. Yield Guild Games (YGG) will unlock 16.69 million tokens on June 27, valued at approximately $10.27 million, accounting for 4.48% of the circulating supply.