Reflection on a Million Dollar Deal: Less is More

Author: b12ny

There are two types of traders in the market: one knows too little and earns little, while the other knows more and loses more.

When I first stepped into trading, I always thought that the more I learned, the more I could earn, but later I realized that the market is not a knowledge competition, but a brutal game.

As the market is not as hot as it was a few months ago, and this year has been my worst trading performance, I began to review my trading journey from the past to the present.

From the emotional trading that all beginners experience, to data trading later on, and now to trading emotions.

This journey has not made me understand the market better, but rather made me realize how to adapt to it. Thus, I learned to eliminate unnecessary cognitive burdens and find the core elements that truly suit my trading style.

Stage One: Emotional Trading

I remember when I first entered the market, all my trading decisions came from intuition and the sluggish market heat. FOMO was my driving force, and like everyone else, I used Musk's Twitter to decide when to go all in. I scrolled through Twitter, joined a bunch of TG groups, fearing I would miss any "hundredfold opportunity."

I felt a strong sense of participation, believing there was always an opportunity to enter the market. The market heat and the then-popular Dogecoin made me feel like a blockchain genius, until I encountered my first crash after frequent trading, experiencing a maximum drawdown of nearly 70%. My entries and exits seemed reasonable, but looking back, it was all foolishness.

At that time, I even doubted whether there were manipulators watching my positions, but in reality, I just didn't understand the logic behind market operations.

Stage Two: Data Trading

After realizing the problems with emotional trading, I began to turn to data analysis. With my background in data analysis, I started studying on-chain data, capital flows, and liquidity changes, using data to build trading strategies, trying to find the perfect entry and exit points by following the whales.

This data advantage made me more rational, thinking I had uncovered the so-called manipulator's operations, reducing the times I was led by the market. However, when I found myself overly reliant on indicators, my decision-making became complicated, and execution became more difficult.

When data did not match market emotions, I began to fall into the trap of thinking my theories were correct, but the market did not agree. I learned how to use data to validate market logic, but the market harshly slapped me in the face and told me:

"No data can completely predict what will happen in the future."

Stage Three: Trading Emotions

As I progressed in trading, I began to realize that the market never provides you with perfect opportunities. The real trading points lie in the resonance between key variables (uncertainty) and market emotions.

The value of data is to provide historical context and possible directions, rather than a holy grail with a 100% win rate. In trading, it is not about who knows more to earn more, but rather who can survive in the market longer (losing less).

Thus, I started to eliminate unnecessary data analysis, no longer fixating on every detail, but focusing only on the narrative, capital flows, liquidity, and emotional turning points.

My trading approach became simpler and simpler, no longer pursuing "perfect data alignment," but entering the market at critical points, increasing my margin for error, reducing information overload, and concentrating on the core variables I believe affect the market, allowing me to adapt more flexibly to market changes without being restricted by a single strategy.

Trading is an Endless Dialogue with Oneself

Until today, I finally realized that trading is not about knowing more, but about knowing what to ignore.

You can analyze on-chain data, study market emotions, capture short-term trends, and track capital flows. You can understand market emotions in MEME coins, where a meme ignites FOMO, and a tweet can send a coin soaring, while also being able to withdraw before faith collapses.

Even though you know so much, it still doesn't prevent you from losing money; this is the harsh reality.

The key to trading is not mastering all information, but simplifying and focusing on a few important things, being able to filter out market noise, believing in every decision you make, and bravely acknowledging right and wrong, which gives you the opportunity to continue surviving in this market.

The above is my personal experience from emotional trading to data trading, and finally returning to the market rhythm. My experience is not linear, but rather a process of moving from chaos to order, and ultimately back to simplification.

Finally, I want to say, everything can be lost,

but even the smile of a super idol is not as sweet as yours.