Is it useless for Trump to personally call the shots? Has the market completely fallen into a bear market atmosphere?

Source: Talking About Li, Talking About Outside

Yesterday (March 23), Trump tweeted on the social media platform Truth Social: I love TRUMP (token), very cool. As shown in the picture below.

However, looking at the price performance of the TRUMP token on that day, it seems that there wasn't much trading volume generated as a result. The highest increase for the day was only about 7%, indicating that the overall market sentiment remains pessimistic. Even with the president's endorsement, people no longer have that kind of frenzied purchasing power. As shown in the picture below.

In fact, there have been quite a few positive developments in the market recently, such as: the U.S. Treasury lifted sanctions on Tornado Cash, the SEC stated that proof-of-work mining does not involve the issuance and sale of securities, the SEC terminated its lawsuit against Ripple (XRP), Trump spoke at the Blockworks Digital Assets Summit (with a pre-recorded statement) and reiterated that the U.S. would take measures to ensure it becomes the "world's cryptocurrency capital," White House officials indicated that the U.S. might use its gold reserves to buy more Bitcoin, MicroStrategy and other institutions continue to buy more Bitcoin, Trump showcased the Bitcoin white paper hanging on the wall in the White House, and the IMF is adding Bitcoin to its own reserves… and so on.

However, the overall market reaction has been relatively muted. The current market gives a sense that the narrative is still very strong (crypto has risen to the national level), but liquidity is very weak.

So, has the market completely fallen into a bear market atmosphere?

This question primarily depends on your definition of a bear market. If you believe that the current price of Bitcoin at $86,000 (as of the time of writing) means a bear market, then for you, it is a bear market; if you think that a decline of over 60% in your holdings means a bear market, then for you, it is a bear market…

Recently, based on data from the backend and discussions in the group, I found that many people's sentiments remain quite pessimistic and confused. Some messages or private messages continue to ask me questions about price predictions or trading operations, such as: How much do you think the market will drop next? Do you think Bitcoin can rise to $90,000 this month? Can I buy XX coin now? I am stuck in XX, should I switch to XX? … and so on.

Those who ask such questions are mostly new followers or users who don't usually read Talking About Li, Talking About Outside articles. In fact, I have never had standard answers to such questions. If I must answer, the only answer is "I don't know." Additionally, since I tend to be quite direct in my speech, those who come to me with such questions usually won't receive much psychological comfort. However, those who know me (from past articles) should understand that I am a long-term optimist for Bitcoin. When you ask me if Bitcoin is worth buying, it's like holding a ready-made answer without looking and trying to ask the questioner for the answer.

In the current market, the slightly more heated topic (that people in the group discuss relatively more) is CZ's team promoting MemeCoin with BNB Chain, but the approach remains the old method of Meme + hype. Chinese KOLs are busy interacting and making calls, while players continue to engage in PvP games through fast-paced trading (seeing who enters early and runs faster). This kind of play does not significantly change the overall market situation at this stage. Perhaps we need some more positive catalysts to push or bring about a new wave of phase-based market trends.

Now, many people seem to expect the market to change mainly based on macroeconomic factors, such as Trump's tariff policy changes, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, etc. From the current overall situation, we seem to be at a new turning point or approaching a new turning point. Especially since the beginning of this year, with the continuous rise in gold prices, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index have shown a noticeable pullback, as shown in the picture below.

Although compared to previous cycles, Bitcoin in this cycle has a long-term strong narrative due to the approval of ETFs and recognition by the U.S. government (strategic reserves, etc.), investors seem not to show complete favor towards such high-risk assets due to some macro issues. Here, let's make a simple assumption: as gold continues to reach new highs and hits a peak, when gold re-enters a new consolidation or pullback, Bitcoin and other high-risk assets may show some new trend changes or phase reversals.

As for when this new trend change or phase reversal will happen, I don't know. Here, I can make a random guess: if the market continues to face new black swan events, we might see Bitcoin starting with a 7 again (a new accumulation opportunity for investors), and if the market continues to crawl slowly according to the current (recent weeks) pace, then perhaps in the second quarter of this year, we will also see some new phase opportunities (a new selling opportunity for speculators).

The macro factors we mentioned above (such as interest rate cuts) have a long-term impact on the market. If you are more focused on short-term market opportunities, then besides paying attention to some technical indicators (such as MACD, RSI, etc.), the simplest approach is to pay extra attention to the flow of funds from different angles, as we mentioned in previous articles. Here, let's briefly give two examples:

- ETF Fund Inflows/Outflows

ETF fund inflows usually have a positive impact on overall market sentiment. For example, starting from March 14, Bitcoin ETFs have seen positive inflows. If we compare this with Bitcoin's price movements, we can find a certain correlation. As shown in the picture below.

- On-chain Fund Inflows/Outflows

If you like to chase opportunities on-chain, then generally just follow the smart money. See where the money is flowing in the ecosystem and pay attention to the project opportunities in that corresponding ecosystem. As shown in the picture below.

Of course, different indicators or methods may produce different effects (long-term or short-term impact), but to cope with the confusion in investing, the best approach is to form one or several of your own methods and then continuously execute and optimize your trading strategy based on these methods. At the same time, this can also help reduce extreme pessimism in a bear market (not buying when you should) and extreme optimism in a bull market (not selling when you should).

Whether it's consumption or investment, before deciding to do anything, we must be prepared for both outcomes. For example, buying a car might lead to a price drop, buying a phone might lead to a price drop, and buying Bitcoin might also lead to a price drop. However, compared to cars and phones, the drop in Bitcoin is merely a short-term pullback in the long run. Moreover, you can certainly hold multiple assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, but you must prioritize your planning. You should invest with money that does not affect your daily life. If you are not engaging in short-term speculation, then the basic priority should be BTC > ETH (yes, that's right, even though many people are currently FUDing Ethereum, I personally still see its overall development positively at this stage) > other altcoins > MemeCoins.

The game in the crypto market is becoming increasingly difficult. Some historical experiences and indicators have become ineffective. For most ordinary people, if you still don't know what to do, just remember one thing: when you have no better choice, Bitcoin will be your only and reliable choice.

That's all for today. The images/data referenced in the text have been added to the Talking About Li, Talking About Outside Notion. The above content is just personal perspectives and analyses, only for learning records and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice.