Matrixport Market Observation: BTC Price Rebounds, Driven by Macroeconomic Expectations and Safe-Haven Demand

Last week, as the release of positive information regarding tariffs alleviated some market anxiety, the BTC price fluctuated upward, with market sentiment shifting from panic to cautious optimism.

On April 8, the BTC price opened at $79,163.24, and after hitting a low of $74,620 on the 9th, it began an upward trend. On the 13th, influenced by positive remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, market sentiment improved, and the BTC price rose to a high of $86,100. It is currently stable around $85,000, with a maximum weekly increase of 15.38%. The ETH trend has generally followed BTC, currently stabilizing around $1,600, with a maximum weekly increase of 22.12% (data source: Binance Spot, April 15, 14:30).

The market is gradually adapting to adjustments in macroeconomic and monetary policies, with the three major stock indices experiencing a rebound after two weeks of volatility. As of the close on April 14, the three major U.S. stock indices all rose by nearly 1%. However, the U.S. dollar remains weak, with exchange rates generally declining.

Market Interpretation

BTC's fluctuation and consolidation have led to improved sentiment, with the market responding positively to tariff easing expectations

On April 14, BTC rose by 1.6%, approaching $85,000, while ETH increased by 2.7% to $1,630. The CoinDesk 20 index rose by 1.2%, mainly driven by SOL and AVAX. On-chain data shows that BTC network activity and liquidity continue to improve. Swissblock noted that current liquidity indicators are above key levels, suggesting potential short-term price upside.

In early April, Trump announced retaliatory tariffs and suspended new tariffs on other countries that had not yet released counter-sanction policies, leading to significant short-term market volatility. BTC faced pressure but stabilized and rebounded after several days of fluctuation, with the current price stabilizing around $85,000, showing a clear recovery from its lows.

Market sentiment has gradually shifted from initial panic to cautious optimism. Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if tariffs lead to an economic slowdown, it would support earlier interest rate cuts. The drop in inflation to 2.4% also provides room for easing policies. The EU's delay in imposing taxes on the U.S. further alleviates external pressure.

U.S. Treasury volatility raises systemic concerns, BTC may attract safe-haven funds

On April 14, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury rose to 4.49%, marking the largest weekly increase in 20 years. Trump's high tariff policy triggered a sell-off, causing both U.S. Treasuries and stocks to decline, with funds flowing into safe-haven assets like gold and the yen. The dollar is under pressure, and the market's confidence in U.S. Treasuries as a "risk-free asset" is wavering.

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the U.S. Treasury market is "approaching chaos," and if liquidity worsens further, the Federal Reserve may be forced to intervene. He pointed out that the Fed usually acts only when it "starts to feel panic."

Referring to the 2020 crisis context, BTC received inflows during the Fed's massive easing. If the financial system tightens again, BTC may benefit from its non-sovereign attributes.

ETH's annual supply growth at 0.805%, deflationary target still unmet

As of April 13, the annualized supply growth rate of ETH is 0.805%, with a net increase of approximately 3.47 million ETH. Despite EIP-1559 having burned over 4.58 million ETH, the current total supply stands at 120.69 million.

In terms of ecosystem competition, Solana's market share continues to rise, with on-chain active users far exceeding those on the ETH mainnet. RWA projects are migrating to chains like Polygon, exacerbating the outflow of ETH value.

Currently, ETH faces challenges such as high inflation, unattractive staking yields (annualized 3.2% vs. Fed rate 5.25%), a decrease in validators, and regulatory restrictions (such as the SEC limiting ETH staking ETF participation). Low mainnet activity makes it difficult to achieve the deflationary target.

Market Highlights

U.S. March CPI below expectations, inflation slowdown intensifies Fed policy game

On April 10, the U.S. March CPI year-on-year rate was 2.4%, lower than the previous value of 2.8% and market expectations of 2.5%; core CPI dropped to 2.8%, the lowest since 2023.

The Federal Reserve is weighing interest rate cuts to address the economic slowdown risks posed by Trump's tariff policies. The current policy game is intensifying, and uncertainty regarding the interest rate path will continue to dominate market expectations.

Trump's tariff adjustments signal short-term benefits for technology and cryptocurrency industries

On April 13, the Trump administration announced exemptions from import tariffs on smartphones, laptops, chips, and semiconductor equipment, aiming to balance inflation pressure with supply chain security. Companies like TSMC benefit from the exemption on equipment tariffs, while the costs of crypto mining machines and on-chain infrastructure decrease, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite.

Waller states that tariff inflation may be temporary, Fed may reassess inflation path

On April 14, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the impact of tariffs on inflation may be short-term, and there remains uncertainty in the policy path. He reiterated that in the face of rising economic slowdown risks, he would consider earlier and larger interest rate cuts.

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