At the beginning of April, Trump's reciprocal tariff policy triggered a global asset crash, but Trump subsequently eased his stance, admitting that tariffs "will be significantly reduced," and confirmed that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell would continue to serve, alleviating concerns about turmoil in the Fed's leadership. After investors were reassured, a new wave of risk appetite emerged, with Bitcoin leading the charge upward.

From the data perspective, although the macroeconomic hard indicators such as consumption and employment in the U.S. in April have not yet suffered substantial shocks, risks have clearly increased: in March, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 151,000 jobs (expected 170,000), and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, with data better than expected; on the other hand, the "reciprocal tariff" policy implemented by the Trump administration in April saw the average tariff rate soar from 2.4% to 21.4%, leading to an 18.6% year-on-year increase in the import price index. The pre-tariff rush in automobile purchases drove retail sales to surge by 1.4% month-on-month in March, but the actual consumption momentum excluding automobiles only grew by 0.5%, a decline of 0.15 percentage points compared to February.

This policy-driven short-term consumption overdraft stands in stark contrast to the sharp decline in the consumer confidence index in April, which recorded the largest drop since 1978: the preliminary value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in April was 50.8, significantly below the expected 53.5, down from 57 in March, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline. The preliminary value of the one-year inflation expectation from the University of Michigan in April surged to 6.7%, the highest since November 1981, compared to an expectation of 5.2% and a previous value of 5%; the preliminary value of the five-year inflation expectation was 4.4%, the highest level since June 1991, with an expectation of 4.3% and a previous value of 4.1%. The significant weakening of expectation-related soft indicators reveals various unsustainabilities.

The U.S. economy is facing a stagflation dilemma of "high inflation - low growth - policy conflict," and the backlash effect of the tariff policy will accelerate through three channels: the supply chain, the labor market, and consumer confidence. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its latest World Economic Outlook report, lowering the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, with the U.S. growth forecast halved to 1.8% and the Eurozone down to 0.7%.

Looking at the Federal Reserve, the PCE inflation rate has been above the 2% target for 14 consecutive months, and in April, short-term inflation expectations jumped to 3.8%, the highest since 1982. In this context, the Federal Reserve's decision on March 19 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range clearly indicates it is trapped in a triple dilemma: cutting rates could exacerbate inflation expectations, raising rates would accelerate economic recession, while maintaining the status quo faces pressure from the President. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that policymakers will continue to monitor economic conditions, particularly inflation and growth data, and will consider adjusting interest rates only after receiving clearer signals.

As the "anchor point" of global monetary policy, the Federal Reserve is undergoing the most severe policy imbalance test in nearly forty years. According to widespread predictions, in the most optimistic scenario, if inflation declines faster than expected, the Federal Reserve may shift to a neutral interest rate more quickly, potentially starting to cut rates in the first half of 2025 (May or June).

Throughout April, dollar assets faced a dual blow from policy uncertainty and economic downturn, especially in the first half of the month when market sentiment was extremely pessimistic; first, on April 3, the three major U.S. stock indices experienced historic declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 5.50% in a single day, the Nasdaq plunging 5.82%, and the S&P 500 dropping 5.98%, marking the largest single-day drop since March 2020. Tech stocks were hit hard, with companies like Apple, Tesla, and Nvidia plummeting due to rising supply chain costs and export restrictions, while Nike fell 14.44% in a single day due to high tariffs affecting Vietnam and Indonesia. Bruce Kasman, the chief economist at JPMorgan, even raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 79%, reflecting deep market concerns about the long-term negative impact of the tariff policy.

U.S. stocks saw a significant rebound at the end of the month. On April 23, the S&P 500 rose 9.52% in a single day, and the Nasdaq gained 12.16%, marking the second-largest single-day increase in history. This rebound was partly due to market expectations of potential adjustments to the tariff policy, such as the U.S. Customs and Border Protection announcing exemptions for certain electronic products. Additionally, some tech giants reported better-than-expected earnings, boosting market confidence, such as Google's AI business growth and a $70 billion stock buyback plan.

Although U.S. stocks recovered most of the losses from the tariffs by the end of the month, the uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and the economic downturn in the U.S. may create a stronger resonance, with U.S. stocks likely to remain the first to be impacted. Wall Street generally believes that this rebound may only be a "technical correction in a bear market." Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett warned that investors should "sell on rallies," as the market still faces policy uncertainty and recession risks. Goldman Sachs also pointed out that if the tariff policy is not substantially relaxed, U.S. stocks may come under pressure again.

Before the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts and progresses in tariff negotiations, the short-term rebound in U.S. stocks remains overshadowed.

Although Bitcoin also suffered a heavy blow from tariffs in April, it outperformed market expectations and redefined its position among global assets:

First, in mid to late April, Bitcoin's price strongly broke through the $94,000 mark, with a single-day increase of over 3%, reaching a new high for the year. This surge corresponded with gold hitting new highs, highlighting its attribute as "digital gold." In stark contrast to the U.S. stocks impacted by the tariff policy during the same period, Bitcoin's volatility significantly decreased in April. This stability attracted medium to long-term capital to accelerate entry—between April 21 and 23, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of over $900 million for three consecutive days, pushing the total market capitalization of global cryptocurrencies above $3 trillion, reigniting bullish sentiment in the entire cryptocurrency market, with investor confidence reaching its highest level in over two months. U.S. media referred to it as an alternative choice in search of a safe haven. During this wave of price increase, the wealth of long-term holders (LTHs) significantly grew. According to CryptoQuant data, from April 1 to 23, the market value of long-term holders increased from $345 billion to $371 billion, an increase of $26 billion, indicating that long-term holders are reaping rewards for their persistence.

According to CryptoQuant statistics, from January to early April, Bitcoin experienced a correction of over 30%, which aligns with historical market cycle patterns from 2013, 2017, and 2021, where corrections typically occur after reaching new highs, flushing out weaker investors before resuming an upward trend. Additionally, the decoupling of Bitcoin from traditional markets and the demand for non-correlated assets (such as gold prices rising to a new high of $3,500) have strengthened long-term holders' confidence in Bitcoin as a store of value.

Data from Cointelegraph shows that currently, 16.7 million BTC across various wallets are in profit—this level is often referred to as the "threshold of optimism." Historically, similar patterns in 2016, 2020, and early 2024 have led to bull markets. When the profit supply remains above this region, it often boosts investor confidence and triggers sustained price momentum, typically pushing Bitcoin to set new historical highs within months. After breaking through $90,000, the number of active addresses on the blockchain surged by 15%, and the number of whale wallets (holding over 1,000 BTC) reached a four-month high, further validating the bullish consensus among investors.

Driven by the surge in Bitcoin prices, the total market capitalization of global cryptocurrencies surpassed $3 trillion on April 23, with Bitcoin's market capitalization reaching $1.847 trillion, surpassing both Alphabet (Google) and Amazon, as well as the precious metal silver, becoming the fifth-largest asset after gold ($22.344 trillion), Apple ($3.000 trillion), Microsoft ($2.726 trillion), and Nvidia ($2.412 trillion).

This ranking improvement makes Bitcoin the only digital asset in the top ten global assets list. More notably, Bitcoin's long-term correlation with U.S. tech stocks (especially the Nasdaq 100 index) has shown signs of "decoupling." During April, Bitcoin's price surged 15%, while the Nasdaq 100 index only rose 4.5%, highlighting its independent market performance and changing asset attributes. Compared to the stock market volatility caused by the tariff policy in April, Bitcoin has recently demonstrated stronger price stability and lower volatility, which may encourage more publicly traded companies to consider allocating crypto assets in their financial strategies.

Undoubtedly, crypto assets are rewriting the underlying logic of global asset pricing. In April, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood raised the Bitcoin price target for 2030 from $1.5 million to $2.4 million, based on increased institutional interest and the growing acceptance of Bitcoin as "digital gold."

Currently, the market rebound in April is a temporary alleviation of concerns about market collapse and economic recession triggered by tariffs. The further trajectory will depend on whether the trade war can be resolved in a timely manner and the direction of the U.S. economy. Given that the most optimistic rate cuts are still a month away, market divergences remain, and short-term fluctuations are inevitable. As traditional financial markets face turbulence due to the trade war and economic cycles, the independence and counter-cyclical attributes of crypto assets may attract more funds seeking diversified asset allocation.