Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.34 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.55%, totaling $2.06 trillion. The market cap of stablecoins is $245.9 billion, with a 7-day increase of 1.1%, of which USDT accounts for 62.26%.

This week, BTC's price has shown a fluctuating upward trend, currently priced at $110,915; ETH has also shown a fluctuating upward trend, currently priced at $2,670.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen while a few have fallen, including: DOG with a 7-day increase of 54.14%, MOO DENG with a 7-day increase of 40.66%, HYPE with a 7-day increase of 33.48%, and WLD with a 7-day increase of 32.44%.

This week, the net inflow for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $2.75 billion; the net inflow for Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $247.7 million.

On May 23, the "Fear & Greed Index" was at 76 (higher than last week), indicating a sentiment of greed over the past 7 days.

Market Prediction:

This week, stablecoins continue to be issued, and there has been a significant inflow into Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S., marking the largest inflow week since January. BTC surged from $103,520 to a historic high of $111,313, with a 7-day increase of 4.37%. The RSI index is at 44.88, indicating neutrality, while the altcoin season index is at 18. This new high was driven by institutional "buying" rather than community-led efforts. The market remains in a state of greed. On Friday, following Trump's remarks suggesting a 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1, the market experienced a brief decline before gradually recovering, with the weekend typically being a period of low trading activity; currently, the pullback appears normal.

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June is only 5.3%, lower than last week, with expectations of only 1-2 rate cuts this year. However, the steady progress of the U.S. stablecoin "GENIUS Act" this week has provided a boost to the market. Crypto czar David Sacks stated in an interview with CNBC that if the GENIUS stablecoin bill passes, it will bring trillions of dollars in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds. He anticipates that once the bill provides a legal framework, the stablecoin market will rapidly expand from the current $200 billion (unregulated) to trillions, with Tether already holding nearly $120 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds, surpassing Germany to become the 19th largest holder. The passage of stablecoins will mark another celebration in this bull market.

Understanding Now

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. On May 19, on-chain data analyst Murphy published an analysis of BTC's concentration of chips, noting that from May 7 to May 14, BTC's concentration dropped from a high of 15.5% to 8.2% in just 7 days. This indicates that as the price rises, it is gradually moving away from the concentrated chip area. If the concentration curve continues to decline, it is likely that the price will continue to rise;

2. On May 20, according to The Block, the development studio Anza, spun off from Solana Labs, announced what they call "the largest transformation in the history of the Solana core protocol." According to the announcement, this high-throughput Layer 1 blockchain will welcome a newly designed underlying architecture called Alpenglow;

3. On May 20, FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported that the U.S. Senate voted to pass a "cloture motion" to formally consider the "GENIUS Act," with at least 15 Democratic senators changing their stance to vote in favor, including Cortez Masto, Adam Schiff, and Mark Warner. The bill will now enter a comprehensive review process, having only passed the "cloture motion" so far, and the bill itself has not yet passed. The "GENIUS Act" will next enter the debate and amendment stage in the Senate;

4. On May 20, according to official news, Jupiter announced that it has fully aggregated the time tokenization platform time.fun for trading, which supports the buying and selling of time from creators, influencers, and experts, with all tokens available for instant trading on Jupiter;

5. On May 20, according to official news, the Farcaster verification feature is about to go live. By connecting two social accounts (X, phone number, or GitHub) and holding at least $25 in the wallet, account verification can be completed;

6. On May 20, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that BlackRock's Bitcoin holdings have now reached 57% of the total supply, second only to Satoshi Nakamoto. At the current trend, BlackRock is expected to become the world's largest Bitcoin holder by the end of next summer;

7. On May 20, Robinhood submitted a 42-page proposal to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) suggesting the establishment of a federal-level "RWA tokenization" framework aimed at modernizing the U.S. securities market;

8. On May 22, according to 8marketcap data, Bitcoin surpassed Amazon to become the fifth largest asset by market capitalization globally;

9. On May 22, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett reported that the stablecoin "GENIUS Act" passed the debate motion with 69 votes in favor and 31 against, entering the amendment process;

10. On May 22, according to Lookonchain monitoring, Cetus suffered a hacker attack, resulting in losses exceeding $260 million;

11. On May 23, Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart stated that the U.S. SEC decided today to postpone its decision on the Bitwise and CoinShares XRP spot ETFs, as well as CoinShares' Litecoin spot ETF, but officially accepted the TRX staking ETF application submitted by Canary Capital.

Macroeconomics

1. On May 19, according to Bitcoin For Corporations, the UK-listed company Vinanz purchased 16.9 Bitcoins at an average price of $103,341, totaling approximately $1.75 million;

2. On May 20, the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, in line with market expectations;

3. On May 20, the People's Bank of China lowered the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) from 3.1% and 3.6% to 3% and 3.5%, respectively;

4. On May 21, according to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June is 5.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 94.7%;

5. On May 22, Japan's 40-year government bond yield rose by 6 basis points to 3.675%, reaching the highest level since 2007;

ETF

According to statistics, from May 19 to May 23, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the U.S. was $2.75 billion; as of May 23, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.033 billion, currently holding $20.426 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $70.058 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $134.838 billion.

The net inflow of Ethereum spot ETFs in the U.S. was $247.7 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. Bitcoin 2025 will be held from May 27 to 29 in Las Vegas, USA;

2. NFT NYC 2026 will be held from June 23 to 25, 2025, in New York, USA;

3. Permissionless IV will be held from June 24 to 26, 2025, in New York, USA;

4. EthCC 8 will be held from June 30 to July 3, 2025, in Cannes, France.

Project Progress

1. Ethereum developers announced that fusaka-devnet-0 is expected to go live on May 26;

2. Ethena Labs' eUSDe (launched in collaboration with Ethereal) Pendle pool will expire on May 29, offering 50 times Ethena rewards and Ethereal points;

3. The lvlUSD and slvlUSD markets in collaboration with Pendle and LevelUSD will expire on May 29, 2025. lvlUSD is the native non-yield stablecoin of the protocol, based on USDT and USDC; while slvlUSD is the staked yield stablecoin, with yields coming from the base earnings of Aave V3 deposits and the re-staking earnings of Aave aTokens;

4. FTX will begin distributing over $5 billion to creditors on May 30;

5. The Ethereum re-staking protocol ether.fi's fifth season will run from February 1, 2025, to May 31, 2025, with rewards including ETHFI tokens (at least 10 million), partner tokens, and King Protocol rewards;

6. The last 25% of the Mint community airdrop on the Ethereum L2 network will be unlocked on May 31;

7. The Treasure Chain under the blockchain gaming ecosystem Treasure DAO will close at 3:00 AM Beijing time on May 31. Holders must cross-chain all ETH, MAGIC, SMOL, and NFTs before the end of May.

Important Events

1. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has opened a public comment period for the Litecoin ETF proposed by Canary Funds, focusing on whether the ETF proposal meets regulatory requirements to prevent fraud and market manipulation. The deadline for public comments is May 26, 2025, and the deadline for rebuttals is June 9, 2025;

2. Kraken sent confirmation emails to FTX customers stating that the next round of FTX compensation distribution will take place on May 30, 2025, including creditors with amounts both below and above $50,000;

3. On May 28, U.S. Vice President Vance will speak at the "Bitcoin 2025" conference;

4. On May 29, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the May monetary policy meeting.

Token Unlocking

1. Altlayer (ALT) will unlock 195 million tokens on May 25, valued at approximately $7.21 million, accounting for 1.95% of the circulating supply;

2. Axelar (ALX) will unlock 13.51 million tokens on May 27, valued at approximately $5.33 million, accounting for 1.12% of the circulating supply;

3. Open Campus (EDU) will unlock 21.02 million tokens on May 28, valued at approximately $3.66 million, accounting for 2.1% of the circulating supply;

4. Renzo (REZ) will unlock 423 million tokens on May 29, valued at approximately $6.93 million, accounting for 4.24% of the circulating supply;

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research hub of the Hotcoin ecosystem, focuses on providing professional in-depth analysis and forward-looking insights for global cryptocurrency investors. We have built a "trend analysis + value discovery + real-time tracking" service system, offering precise market interpretations and practical strategies for investors at different levels through in-depth analysis of cryptocurrency industry trends, multi-dimensional assessments of potential projects, and 24/7 market volatility monitoring, combined with weekly live broadcasts of "Hotcoin Selected" strategies and daily news updates from "Blockchain Today." Leveraging cutting-edge data analysis models and industry resource networks, we continuously empower novice investors to establish cognitive frameworks and assist professional institutions in capturing alpha returns, collectively seizing value growth opportunities in the Web3 era.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investment carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct investments based on a full understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.