Matrixport Market Observation: BTC 2025 Conference Triggers Price Volatility, ETF Fund Flows Diverge

Last week (May 27 - June 2), BTC was influenced by the BTC 2025 conference, experiencing four consecutive declines before stabilizing. Since the BTC 2025 conference opened in Las Vegas on May 27, BTC briefly surged to $110,718, then turned downward, reaching a low of $103,068.55 by May 31 at 11 AM, with a weekly decline of 6.9%. Subsequently, BTC rebounded moderately, returning above $104,000, with trading volume increasing slightly, currently stabilizing around $105,184.

During the same period, ETH exhibited a typical "M" shape trend. It hit a high of $2,788 on May 29 during the conference, but then momentum weakened, dropping below $2,500 to a low of $2,468.56, with a maximum volatility of 11.45%. ETH has now steadily risen to around $2,613 (Binance spot, June 3, 18:00).

U.S. stocks regained upward momentum due to easing tariffs, with the Nasdaq rising nearly 1% in May and the S&P 500 up over 6%, marking the best monthly performance since November 2023. On June 2, the Dow closed up 0.08%, the S&P up 0.41%, and the Nasdaq up 0.67%.

Market Interpretation

BTC Spot ETF Outflows Widen, ETH Spot ETF Inflows Counter-Trend

Last week, U.S. BTC spot ETF saw a net outflow of $144 million, with ARKB, FBTC, and GBTC being the main withdrawal channels. In contrast, ETH spot ETF recorded a net inflow of $285 million, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for over 70%.

In terms of regulation, the SEC questioned the compliance of REX's proposed ETH and SOL staking ETFs, while WisdomTree's XRP ETF entered the review process. Sentiment in the derivatives market has become cautious, with a decrease in IBIT call option positions and a rising atmosphere of short-term wait-and-see.

Japanese Government Bond Yields Hit New Highs, BTC Becomes a New Global Safe Haven Option

In May, Japan's 40-year government bond yield soared to 3.5%, setting a historical high and highlighting concerns over sovereign credit. During the same period, BTC broke through $112,000, attracting safe-haven funds into the crypto market. With a sharp decline in bond market auction demand and system pressure, BTC is viewed by some institutions as a "new type of government bond" due to its fixed supply and decentralized attributes. U.S. BTC ETF inflows exceeded $900 million in a single day, with signals from the Czech central bank and the Trump administration indicating a willingness to include it in reserves, further enhancing BTC's status.

U.S. Officials Signal Easing of Crypto Regulation, Spot ETF Trading Volume Explodes

At the BTC 2025 conference, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance proposed a national strategy for crypto assets, promising to simplify regulations, support ETF legalization, and reduce enforcement barriers in the industry. Following this statement, BTC spot ETF trading volume hit a yearly high that week, reflecting that the favorable policy has been quickly priced in by the market. The subsequent regulatory details and the pace of policy implementation are expected to become core variables influencing market direction.

Korean Elections Trigger Expectations of Crypto Structural Adjustments

As the June 3 South Korean elections approach, South Korea, the world's third-largest crypto market, has a daily trading volume exceeding $5.4 billion and nearly 10 million active users. If tax reforms are implemented soon after the elections, it may suppress local trading volumes; past examples show that trading volumes in India and Indonesia dropped by over 60% after high taxes. Major candidates unanimously support BTC spot ETFs, increasing the likelihood of short-term progress, although institutional differences regarding stablecoins and bank collaborations remain. It is recommended that project teams closely monitor the new government's policy trends and dynamically adjust strategies.

Geopolitical Changes Intensify, Mainstream and Altcoins Undergo Pressure Adjustments

The U.S. International Trade Court partially revoked tariff rulings, heightening market sensitivity to geopolitical and policy risks. XRP and TON were influenced by macro safe-haven trends, both declining over 6% on May 30, with XRP falling below the $2.14 support level, leading to nearly $30 million in long liquidations. Although Ripple launched a new report on cross-border payments and increased practical applications, short-term volatility remains dominated by macro factors, with XRP currently oscillating in a range and consolidating at low levels.

Market Highlights

High-Leverage On-Chain Liquidations Become a Hot Topic, Derivative Mechanisms Spark Controversy

During the Dragon Boat Festival, on-chain trader James Wynn's high-leverage BTC long positions faced continuous liquidations, attracting attention due to his 40x leverage positions, real-time liquidation price disclosures, and community crowdfunding, which garnered significant interest on the Hyperliquid platform. The platform's on-chain capital flow and account interactions are transparent, with community discussions focusing on "scripted" operations and marketing attributes. Meanwhile, Binance founder CZ discussed the "dark pool perp DEX" model, arguing that on-chain transparency is unfavorable for high-leverage players, and market interest in decentralized derivatives trading continues to rise.

Trump Media Group Accumulates BTC, May Become Largest Publicly Traded BTC Holder in the U.S.

Trump Media Group completed a $2.44 billion financing round and plans to use $2.32 billion to purchase BTC. If successful, the company will surpass MicroStrategy, becoming the publicly traded company with the largest BTC holdings in the U.S., with BTC holdings accelerating their penetration into mainstream financial reporting systems.

PSG Increases BTC Reserves, Sports Capital Embraces Crypto Collectively

Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) announced that it has included BTC in its financial reserves for 2024, and its innovation department, PSG Labs, is also advancing crypto investments and project incubation. The club's BTC strategy aims to bridge the gap with its 550 million young global fans, reflecting a growing trend of non-financial entities allocating digital assets, as sports capital fully embraces the crypto space.

UK Advances Stablecoin Regulatory Framework, Implementation Expected by 2026

The UK's FCA released a draft regulatory framework for stablecoins and custodians in early June, proposing core requirements such as full backing by highly liquid assets, mandatory par value redemption, and custodial responsibilities. It is currently in a public consultation period, with plans for formal implementation in 2026. The regulatory path and flexibility will influence the future layout of compliant projects and market assessments.

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