Why can't money be made even in a bull market? What should I do to make money?

Source: Talking About Li and Outside

Yesterday (June 22, Beijing time), as U.S. President Trump announced the completion of airstrikes on Iran's underground nuclear facilities, the situation in the Middle East escalated further. The actions of some national leaders playing with "fire" also led to a corresponding drop in the crypto market, with Bitcoin falling to around $98,000 and Ethereum dropping to around $2,100.

While leaders were playing with "fire," many people's positions were also burned. According to on-chain data, in just the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network exceeded $640 million, with long liquidations reaching as high as $512 million, as shown in the figure below.

Geopolitics has once again become a catalyst for deleveraging. Although we have known since childhood that playing with "fire" is wrong, we cannot influence how those in power choose to play, nor do we have access to insider information. Therefore, the only thing we can do is to hope for world peace while managing our positions well and finding suitable trading opportunities in this complex "game" of geopolitical games + market structure changes + macroeconomic expectations.

Regarding changes in market structure, I remember discussing the differences between this cycle's Bitcoin and altcoin seasons in a previous article (March 13). In simple terms, this cycle has been following historical cyclical patterns while also witnessing some new differences or new histories.

For some time now, due to changes in macro factors, the structure of Bitcoin seems to have decoupled from that of altcoins. Therefore, our investment strategies should be divided into two independent plans: one for Bitcoin and one for altcoins, which should no longer be mixed.

1) For Bitcoin

Unless you enjoy scalping trades, our advice has always been to make long-term plans. Here’s a simple strategy:

For example, you can operate based on the EMA21 and EMA55 indicators. When EMA21 crosses above EMA55 from below, it can be seen as a bullish signal (confirmation of a bull market). When the price of Bitcoin touches above EMA21, it is a good entry point. As shown in the figure below.

From the current trend, if Bitcoin has the opportunity to pull back to around $94,000 to $96,000, it would still be a good accumulation zone. Meanwhile, as long as Bitcoin's price can maintain above $84,000 (above EMA55), the bullish structure of Bitcoin can still be considered valid.

2) For altcoins

In the previous article (March 13), we redefined the altcoin season as a mini altcoin season, indicating that it seems difficult to see a traditional altcoin season. Since this cycle began, what we call the altcoin season seems to have been replaced by rapid rises and falls of sector-based altcoin seasons like MemeCoin Season, Trump Season, AI Season, etc., unless there is a fundamental change in liquidity, meaning a massive influx of new money into the crypto market to support a simultaneous surge of all altcoins.

Therefore, regarding strategies for altcoins, we need to further subdivide them, for example:

For large-cap altcoins, although these coins may no longer satisfy people's fantasies of tenfold or even hundredfold returns, such altcoins will still have opportunities to improve as the crypto field develops. Moreover, in the short to medium term, if Bitcoin's dominance can reverse, the probability of a rebound for these tokens will also be relatively high.

As for how to find leading altcoins, it’s actually quite simple. Besides well-known coins like ETH, SOL, and BNB, you can also use data platforms like CoinMarketCap or CoinGecko to discover them through the Categories section, looking for large-cap coins ranked at the top in each sub-field (also paying attention to the corresponding project tokenomics, such as distribution and unlocking issues), such as TAO in the AI category, HYPE in the DeFi category, DOGE in the Meme category, etc. As shown in the figure below.

As for discovering opportunities in small-cap altcoins or various low-quality projects, we have already listed many methods and tools in last year's e-book "Blockchain Methodology" (2024 edition). Interested friends can refer back to the e-book (historical articles), and we won’t discuss this further here.

In summary, aside from investing in Bitcoin, if you want to be stable in altcoins, focus on digging out projects with strong fundamentals, such as those that can continuously generate revenue, have good tokenomics, and are capable of ongoing development with a vision for the future… The simplest method is to select from the top 100 by market cap (if you have a low risk tolerance, you can focus only on the top 30 by market cap).

Additionally, with the advancement of stablecoin legislation in the U.S. and Circle's impressive stock performance after its IPO on the NYSE (and several crypto companies announcing IPO plans)… some friends have fallen into new confusion: has the long-awaited altcoin season really moved to the stock market? After playing with Web3 for so long, is the real Web3 actually in the neighboring stock market? Since many in the crypto circle missed this opportunity, I’ve noticed that some friends have started to shift to the stock market. Whether to also engage in the stock market should still be based on personal circumstances.

After clarifying the investment directions for Bitcoin and altcoins, the next step is to customize specific trading strategies, with the core of trading strategies being position management.

What is position management?

Position management refers to the reasonable allocation of funds in trading or investing to control risk, protect capital, and enhance returns. In simple terms, you need to clarify your funding plan, including how to divide your investment, how much to invest in each trade, and what your maximum acceptable loss is… to avoid liquidation or significant losses from one or several mistakes.

Specifically, regarding fund allocation, this may also be divided into several situations, such as:

If your investment areas are broad, covering cryptocurrencies, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, gold, etc., then you may need to allocate different proportions of funds to different areas, and further subdivide within each area. However, our advice has always been not to diversify too much; it’s best to maintain focus and depth in just 1-2 areas, unless your personal capital and time are sufficient to cover more areas.

If you focus solely on the crypto market, then just segment according to your personal goals and risk preferences. Here, we only discuss the crypto market. For a simple example (relatively low risk), in spot trading, you can divide your funds into 10 parts, in a 6:2:2 ratio, where 60% is used for long-term dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin, 20% for short- to medium-term trading plans for altcoins, and 20% for USDC or USDT (to maintain necessary liquidity). Aside from Bitcoin as a long-term plan, do not get too deep into any altcoin (unless you are extremely optimistic about the future of that altcoin, otherwise just trade it, rather than holding it indefinitely), and it’s best to keep the number of coins held to within 10. In summary, always maintain stability and simplicity in your positions, ensuring you can defend when necessary and attack when possible.

Once the fund allocation is planned, the next step is to execute specific trading operations (buying and selling) based on your goals.

Simply put, for Bitcoin trading, as long as you can maintain enough patience, the probability of losing money is actually quite low. As we mentioned in a previous article (June 18): if you haven’t made money in the past 600 days of the bull market cycle, or if you made money but then lost it again, then you should seriously reflect and optimize your trading strategy going forward. Don’t try to predict the so-called precise top in a bull market; the most important thing during a bull market is to seize the right timing to take profits in batches, rather than always aiming to sell at the top. If you firmly believe in Bitcoin's long-term narrative, then simply extend your investment cycle a bit, avoid unnecessary trading, and the probability of losing money seems relatively low.

As for altcoins, large-cap coins are relatively better, while many small-cap coins seem indistinguishable from gambling (betting high or low). I’ve noticed a phenomenon where many people experience: when they don’t buy, altcoins keep rising, but as soon as they buy, they get stuck. How can we avoid this situation as much as possible?

Firstly, based on emotional aspects, buying too "late" may lead to being stuck.

For most people (mainly ordinary retail investors), aside from browsing news or updates, it’s quite difficult to dedicate more time and energy to in-depth learning or research. They only pay attention when the price of a certain coin rises (or they only know about it when it’s pushed in front of them), and at that point, the risk is already relatively high because a high price means those who positioned early may be selling. If you choose to chase the hype just because of FOMO, you increase your chances of getting stuck.

Secondly, based on cyclical aspects, buying too "early" may also lead to being stuck.

If you are just entering this field or are currently in a cash position, would you choose to buy altcoins immediately? If you buy now, especially small-cap altcoins, your investment portfolio is likely to be in a loss state in the coming months, as most altcoins are still in a downtrend relative to Bitcoin at this stage, and it seems they do not yet have the conditions for a new altcoin season to begin.

Therefore, we need to combine the cyclical perspective to avoid buying too early, which can be divided into several situations:

For example, based on the large cycle (bull-bear cycle) level. The so-called 4-5 year bull-bear cycle suggests that the best strategy is to buy fundamentally sound projects that continue to build their ecosystems during a bear market and then patiently wait to sell during a bull market. From the current overall market trend, we have not yet reached the theoretical bear market stage. If you want to operate based on the large cycle, you can continue to wait patiently for the next bear market to arrive (if existing cyclical patterns are not broken, perhaps by the end of 2026 or 2027) before considering it.

Another example is based on the small cycle (phase cycle) level. In the past year, we have actually experienced three mini altcoin seasons. The first was in the first quarter of 2024 (with Bitcoin's rise, altcoins showed a significant upward trend, but then fell sharply). The second was in November 2024 (with Trump winning the U.S. presidential election, stimulating expectations for crypto-friendly policies, altcoins again showed significant gains, but then corrected). The third was around May 2025 (as Bitcoin broke through $100,000 again, some altcoins surged sharply, but then continued to decline). As for when the fourth opportunity will appear, we cannot predict accurately (perhaps in August or September this year), but you can consider relevant indicators like BTC.D and Altseason index. Taking BTC.D as an example, this indicator is currently close to a relative peak range of 66%. If you can see a clear downward signal in the chart next, it can be seen as a buying signal for altcoins. As shown in the figure below.

Of course, the above is merely a discussion based on thought; we will not provide specific trading guidance and cannot clearly tell you which altcoin will rise next. Based on trading, our specific advice remains: only buy projects you understand, control your position allocation ratio, and do not trade altcoins with any emotional bias. Regardless of whether your investment cycle is a few weeks or a few months, during a bull market, ensure you can exit in a timely manner (at least partially profit) without getting too deep into altcoins or taking excessive risks. Stay active but do not chase. If you still don’t know what to do, then BTC remains your safest investment path.

Many people's happiness is often built on the suffering of others; similarly, many people's gains are often based on the losses of others. If you succeed, do not fall into pride and complacency; if you fail, you need to seriously summarize your experiences and lessons.

In any field, while some people are optimistic, others will be pessimistic. If you continue to be optimistic about the crypto field, then keep looking for opportunities. Whether in stocks or cryptocurrencies, any field with financial attributes will have volatile opportunities, and where there are volatile opportunities, markets will form, creating trading opportunities. Trading requires strategies, but strategies vary from person to person. Some may express different views, such as heavily investing for miracles or never taking losses or profits… but actually, various theories or methodologies should be considered or optimized based on one's own perspective. Maintain an open attitude to learn from others, build your own trading system, plan your trades, and trade your plans.