Matrixport Market Observation: Geopolitical Volatility or Peace Breakthrough, Market Awaits New Narrative to Drive Forward

Last week (June 17 - June 23), influenced by geopolitical factors and uncertainties in monetary policy, market sentiment fluctuated, and BTC prices experienced significant volatility. Due to comments from Trump and an increase in the geopolitical risk index, BTC prices fell from a weekly high of $108,952.38 to $98,200, with a noticeable market panic and a maximum drop of 9.8% during the week. Following the "ceasefire agreement" between Israel and Iran, market sentiment changed rapidly, with BTC leading the way, briefly breaking through $106,000, and a 24-hour increase of 4.33%, stabilizing around $105,291. (Binance spot, June 24, 15:30).

Market Interpretation

After the geopolitical storm, safe-haven demand rises; gold outlook remains positive amid fiscal deficits

In mid-June, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East sharply cooled global risk appetite. BTC prices quickly fell below $100,000, with a liquidation amount of up to $1.16 billion in 24 hours, affecting over 250,000 investors. High-volatility assets such as U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies faced collective pressure, with funds significantly flowing into safe-haven assets.

With the ceasefire agreement reached, market risk sentiment quickly recovered, with BTC rebounding 4.5% in 24 hours, and U.S. stocks also rebounding, but gold's performance was more influenced by the U.S. fiscal situation and confidence in the dollar. Bank of America predicts that gold prices could reach $4,000/ounce in the next year, driven primarily by the continuously expanding U.S. fiscal deficit, pressure on the dollar's status, and global central banks increasing their gold holdings.

Currently, global central bank holdings of gold have risen to 18% of U.S. public debt, while gold's share in global reserves has increased to 20%. If there is an oversupply of U.S. debt and deficits remain uncontained, gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation value will continue to attract capital.

Middle East ceasefire boosts risk appetite; BTC rebounds above $106,000

In mid-June, the conflict between Israel and Iran escalated, causing the global geopolitical risk index to soar to 158, leading BTC to fall below $100,000 and triggering $1.16 billion in liquidations across the network. On June 24, after both parties reached a ceasefire agreement, risk sentiment quickly recovered, with BTC rebounding 4.5% in 24 hours, returning to $106,000, while ETH and SOL rose 5%-7% simultaneously, and the total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 3% in a single day.

As of June 23, the net inflow of BTC spot ETFs over five days was $1.3 billion, indicating a recovery in institutional confidence. The funding rates for derivatives turned positive, with bulls dominating the market. The ceasefire eliminated the largest short-term uncertainty, and BTC possesses characteristics of both "risk assets" and "digital gold," with attention now on the resistance at $108,000 and macro variables.

Powell's hawkish remarks: Tariffs pose new inflation risks, Fed rate cut expectations face challenges

The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5% in this round, with Chairman Powell unusually emphasizing the lagging impact of tariffs on inflation during a press conference, warning that Trump's new tariffs could continue to push prices higher. Powell clearly stated that he would not consider easing until there is "sufficient confidence" in a decline in inflation, reinforcing expectations of "high rates lasting longer."

Although the Fed's dot plot still shows room for two rate cuts in 2025, the market generally interprets this as "verbal reassurance," with actual policy guidance leaning hawkish. As a result, the three major U.S. stock indices corrected, bond yields fluctuated more, and market concerns about "stagflation" risks increased.

For the cryptocurrency market, short-term liquidity is under pressure, and a stronger dollar suppresses the performance of risk assets. However, in the long term, if tariffs continue to push inflation higher, the "digital gold" attributes and safe-haven demand for cryptocurrencies like BTC may regain market attention. In the coming months, Fed policy and inflation data will continue to dominate market expectations, with macro uncertainty significantly increasing.

Circle's stock price skyrockets; stablecoin regulatory bill passing Senate boosts post-listing gains over 540%

Last week, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS stablecoin bill with a high vote, marking an important milestone in the regulatory process for the cryptocurrency industry. Driven by this positive news, the stock price of leading stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) surged 34% in a single day, reaching a post-market high of $211.87, with a cumulative increase of over 540% since its listing on June 5, and a market capitalization exceeding $48 billion. The market generally expects CRCL's trading volume to surge to 60 million shares that day, with investors full of anticipation for regulatory dividends.

With the bill establishing compliance standards, Circle and its flagship dollar-pegged stablecoin USDC are expected to benefit first, further accelerating the trend of stablecoin mainstreaming. The exclusive dollar account feature launched by Matrixport provides global users with one-click account opening, convenient transfers, and efficient settlement services, offering strong support for institutions and individuals to compliantly allocate dollar stablecoin assets. In the face of a new round of regulatory dividends in the stablecoin industry, how to compliantly and efficiently manage dollar assets has become a new focus for global capital.

Market Highlights

BTC options quarterly expiration approaching; Deribit data shows maximum pain point at $100,000

This Friday, Deribit will witness the largest BTC options expiration of the quarter, valued at up to $14 billion. The current put/call ratio is 0.7, indicating an overall neutral to bullish market sentiment. The maximum pain point is at $100,000, meaning that option holders at this price level will incur the least overall loss.

U.S. Senate passes GENIUS bill with high votes; stablecoin regulation sees substantial progress

In mid-June, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Stablecoin Act with a vote of 68 to 30, establishing a clear framework for the compliance regulation of dollar-pegged stablecoins. The bill received broad bipartisan support and has been sent to the House of Representatives for review. The new law will impose strict reserve, transparency, and compliance requirements on stablecoin issuers, covering mainstream dollar stablecoins such as USDC and USDT. This policy signals that "digital dollars" will receive formal recognition from the state, providing long-term support for BTC.

Probability of multi-asset spot crypto ETF approvals significantly increases; market sentiment noticeably warms up

According to Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has become more positive regarding the approval of multiple spot cryptocurrency ETFs for assets such as XRP, SOL, DOGE, LTC, and ADA. Analysts have raised the approval probability for these mainstream asset ETFs to 90% or higher, believing that the SEC has shown a higher willingness to cooperate. The only exception is SUI, which has a 60% approval probability due to regulatory uncertainties.

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