Can Trump facilitate a ceasefire between Israel and Iran? The cryptocurrency market has changed dramatically overnight

Written by: Bright, Foresight News

On the morning of June 24, as Trump announced Iran's complete agreement to a comprehensive ceasefire, the cryptocurrency secondary market rebounded after last night's fear of escalating war. BTC briefly fell below $100,000 before rising and breaking through the $106,000 mark, with many altcoins also looking to recover. Affected by the situation in the Middle East, BTC has been in a continuous pullback for nearly a week, hitting a low of $98,200 yesterday and quickly rebounding to $106,075 today, with an increase of over 8.02%.

However, the latest news indicates that Iran has denied reaching a substantial ceasefire agreement, and as of the time of writing, Bitcoin is reported to be around $105,000.

ETH performed relatively weakly after a broad decline, failing to return to the previous $2,500 platform. After hitting a low of $2,111 yesterday, ETH rebounded to $2,440, up over 15.58%. SOL showed a relatively strong rebound, rising to $147 after hitting a low of $121 yesterday, with an increase of 21.48%. However, it may face large sell-offs due to a cooling on-chain market, with SOL still having significant space to reach the recent high of $187.71.

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has rebounded over 6% from its low, reaching $3.3 trillion. As risk aversion eases and altcoins collectively recover, Bitcoin's market share has slightly decreased from its high to 63.49%, but the altcoin season index remains at a low of 14, and the fear and greed index has dropped to a fearful 37. During the same period, U.S. stocks closed slightly higher overall. The S&P 500 index rose 0.96%, closing at 6,025.17 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.89%, closing at 42,581.78 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.94%, closing at 19,630.98 points. Among U.S. cryptocurrency stocks, Circle hit new highs, breaking through $298.41 during the session, increasing over 9.62 times from its issue price of $31, and closing at $263.45. Coinbase fell slightly by 0.26% after a rise, stabilizing its stock price above $300, closing at $307.59. Meanwhile, MicroStrategy continued to decline, falling 0.68%, closing at $367.18.

In terms of liquidation data, according to Coinglass, over 135,600 people were liquidated in the last 24 hours, with a total liquidation amount of $495 million, including $380 million in short liquidations and $115 million in long liquidations, primarily short liquidations. The largest single liquidation on CEX was ETH-USDT, occurring on Binance, worth $12.1423 million.

Recently, the movements of risk assets such as Bitcoin have been closely related to the conflict between Iran and Israel. Last night, the "big thunder but little rain" drama between Iran and the U.S. significantly affected the market's risk aversion. Subsequently, the lack of substantial losses at U.S. military bases and Iran's relatively "weak" retaliatory actions contributed to a slight rebound in risk assets. This morning, Israel, Iran, and the U.S. jointly confirmed a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, which temporarily put a pause on the geopolitical uncertainties in the Gulf region, leading to a continued warming of risk assets like Bitcoin. However, the latest statements from Iran have raised concerns about the sustainability of this "peace."

A Tense Night in the Gulf

Iran: Launched "devastating and powerful" missiles at U.S. military base in Qatar

On the evening of June 23 local time, and in the early hours of June 24 Beijing time, Iranian media reported that Iran announced missile attacks against U.S. military bases in Iraq and Qatar. At the same time, explosions were heard in Doha, the capital of Qatar, and U.S. media reported that Iran launched multiple missiles at the U.S. military base located in Qatar.

The Al Udeid Air Base, located about 35 kilometers southwest of Doha, is the most modern military base of the U.S. in the Gulf region and one of the largest overseas military bases of the U.S., with over 10,000 U.S. soldiers stationed there.

Subsequently, the Iranian armed forces issued a statement announcing missile strikes on the U.S. military base at Al Udeid in Qatar. The statement claimed that this action was a response to the U.S. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities, approved by Iran's Supreme National Security Council and executed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The statement emphasized that the Iranian armed forces launched "devastating and powerful" missiles at the U.S. military base in Qatar.

At the same time, the Secretariat of Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued a statement saying that in response to the U.S. aggression against Iran's nuclear facilities, the Iranian armed forces launched a fierce attack on the U.S. military base at Al Udeid in Qatar that night. The number of missiles used was the same as the number of bombs used by the U.S. when attacking Iran's nuclear facilities, and the targeted U.S. military base is far from residential areas and urban infrastructure in Qatar. The statement emphasized that this action would not pose any threat to Iran's friendly nation, Qatar, and that Iran remains committed to maintaining its long-standing friendly relations with Qatar.

Qatar: Successfully intercepted 19 missile attacks targeting Al Udeid Air Base, no casualties reported

After Iran confirmed the missile attack on the U.S. military base at Al Udeid in Qatar on the 23rd, the Qatari Ministry of Defense issued a statement confirming that Qatar's air defense system successfully intercepted 19 missile attacks targeting the Al Udeid Air Base that day, with no casualties reported.

Qatar also stated that the Al Udeid Air Base had completed evacuation before Iran launched its attack.

U.S.: Trump enters the White House Situation Room, states he does not wish for more military involvement in the Middle East

On the afternoon of June 23, during U.S. stock market trading, U.S. government officials stated that Trump met with the Secretary of Defense and members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in the White House Situation Room. Two informed officials revealed that the U.S. is tracking multiple missiles launched by Iran at U.S. military facilities in Qatar and Iraq.

The U.S. stated that there were no casualties from the Iranian attack on the U.S. base in Qatar and that "no attacks by Iran on U.S. bases in other countries have been recorded."

Subsequently, a senior White House official reported that Trump does not wish for more military involvement in the Middle East.

A Peace That Was Already Agreed Upon?

Trump: No Americans were injured in the Iranian attack, perhaps Iran can begin to achieve peace

Before the close of the U.S. stock market on Monday, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social, stating that Iran's response to the U.S. destroying its nuclear facilities was "very weak" and "thanks Iran for notifying the U.S. in advance."

According to CCTV News, Trump stated on his social platform, "Iran's formal response to the U.S. destroying its nuclear facilities is very weak, which was expected in the U.S." Trump noted that "Iran launched 14 missiles, of which 13 were intercepted, and 1 flew in a non-threatening direction. No Americans were injured, and there was almost no damage."

At the same time, Trump's post mentioned that due to Iran's advance notice, there were no casualties among U.S. personnel. Since Iran has responded to the attack on its nuclear facilities, "I hope there will be no more hatred in the future." He also stated, "Perhaps Iran can now begin to achieve peace and harmony in the region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same."

Trump: Israel and Iran have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire agreement

U.S. President Trump announced that Israel and Iran have agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire agreement aimed at ending a military conflict that has lasted for 12 days, severely impacting the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and causing turmoil in global markets. Reports indicate that senior Iranian officials confirmed that Tehran has agreed to a ceasefire agreement with Israel proposed by the U.S. and mediated by Qatar.

However, it is reported that on June 24 local time, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu requested cabinet members not to comment on the recent developments, namely "Trump's announcement of Iran's agreement to a comprehensive ceasefire," until further notice. The latest news indicates that the Iranian Foreign Minister stated that there is currently no "agreement" between Israel and Iran regarding a ceasefire or cessation of military actions, but they are willing to stop here.

The Fed's Dovish Tone Resurfaces

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman expressed support for a rate cut as early as July. Bowman pointed out that data shows tariffs and other policies have not yet had a significant impact on the economy. The impact of tariffs on inflation may experience greater delays and be smaller than initially expected, especially since many businesses have stocked up in advance. The ongoing progress in trade and tariff negotiations has significantly reduced the risks in the economic environment. Changes in trade policy may have only a minimal impact on the Fed's preferred inflation indicators. In contrast, the risks in the labor market may be rising.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee stated that since Trump imposed tariffs on April 2, there has been a lack of significant inflationary pressure, which may allow the Fed to cut rates again. He recalled that the Fed had anticipated rate cuts earlier in the year but paused them mainly due to policy uncertainty.

Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded significantly after a brief dip, moving away from the dangerous platform area of $97,000. Trader Eugene posted that BTC successfully held the $100,000 mark, and he expects this to be the peak of panic triggered by the entire Middle Eastern situation. Currently, BTC prices are maintained in the range of $100,000 to $110,000, and if the market gradually diminishes the impact of geopolitical conflicts, it is expected to challenge the upper end of this range.