Matrixport Research: Multiple Catalysts Favoring BTC, What is the Future Trend?

Recently, favorable market conditions have emerged, with the U.S. debt ceiling significantly raised and the balance of government bonds surging; Trump has publicly stated that he does not rule out the possibility of "firing Powell for refusing to cut interest rates"; substantial progress has been made on the U.S. stablecoin bill; meanwhile, the latest inflation data came in below expectations. Positive factors such as major U.S. policy adjustments, fiscal dynamics, and macroeconomic factors continue to ferment, and BTC has strongly entered a new trading range. However, it is important to note that the BTC price is approaching the upper boundary, and technical indicators suggest that the market may enter a consolidation phase in the next month or two.

$122,000 is the key price level for BTC at this stage

Historical data shows that over the past 18 months, BTC's movement has roughly followed the pattern of "every $16,000 as a level": $106,000 formed a clear resistance in the first quarter, which evolved into a key support in the second quarter. Based on this logic, the next key price level may be $122,000. Recently, BTC briefly touched this level but then retreated slightly, indicating that the market may enter a phase of consolidation to build momentum for the next trend.

Although choosing to "take profits" in a bull market always carries the risk of missing out on further gains, considering that BTC may enter a summer consolidation phase and the next round of macro catalysts (such as Fed rate cuts) remains unclear, a moderate "locking in profits" is still a rational choice. Data shows that BTC is currently showing signs of being overbought, with the RSI having surpassed 70, and multiple reversal signals beginning to show signs of retreat. On a technical level, the $106,000--$108,000 range may become a key support level. Ideally, BTC will retest this support area, complete momentum repair, and then launch another upward attack.

U.S. economy better than expected, Fed may pave the way for rate cuts in September

CPI data contradicts the predictions of Fed officials and Wall Street economists, with a slight increase from 2.8% in April to 2.9% in July. The market had expected Trump's tariff policy to trigger a sharp rise in inflation. Among the five recently released inflation data points, core CPI only met expectations once, while the other four were below expectations, suggesting that concerns about inflation may have been exaggerated.

Current market sentiment generally believes that the Fed will not directly announce a rate cut at the meeting on July 30, but it does not rule out the possibility of starting to release "signals" to pave the way for a rate cut in September. Despite Trump's continued pressure and criticism of the Fed's inaction, the current economic data does not provide the Fed with sufficient reason to loosen policy: inflation levels remain above the 2.0% target, and even with the new round of tariffs now in effect, the overall performance of the U.S. economy continues to exceed expectations.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.