Michael Saylor: BTC collateral bonds yield 10% annually, the $90 trillion pension battlefield is ready

Original video: Michael Saylor

Compiled by: Odaily Planet Daily

The corporate layout of Bitcoin reserves continues to heat up. Recently, several companies have accelerated their Bitcoin reserve strategies, with typical cases including:

• Nasdaq-listed company Profusa: announced the signing of an equity credit agreement with Ascent Partners Fund LLC, planning to raise up to $100 million through the issuance of common stock, with all net proceeds used to purchase Bitcoin.

• H100 Group: raised an additional approximately $54 million, which will be used to seek investment opportunities under its Bitcoin reserve strategy.

In addition to the above cases, many traditional companies are also actively raising funds to build Bitcoin strategic reserves. Meanwhile, the potential "battleground" of the pension market is also emerging.

On July 18, the Financial Times reported that the Trump administration is considering opening cryptocurrency, gold, and private equity investment channels to the U.S. retirement market, which manages $9 trillion in assets. It is reported that Trump plans to sign an executive order allowing 401(k) retirement plans to invest in alternative assets beyond traditional stocks and bonds. If this policy is implemented, publicly traded companies focused on Bitcoin reserves or holding large amounts of Bitcoin are likely to become popular investment targets in the pension market, with their appeal potentially surpassing existing methods such as spot ETFs.

In this trend, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is moving towards a broader stage with its business model. Previously, Strategy announced the "BTC Credits Model" for assessing the equity value priced in Bitcoin, and founder Michael Saylor recently elaborated on the application and significance of this model in an interview. Odaily Planet Daily has compiled the key content as follows:

What is the next business model for Bitcoin reserve companies? Why is this model so simple yet powerful? How can maximum results be achieved through a focus on execution?

Saylor's first paragraph of response is a familiar refrain (he always says these at the beginning of interviews) ------ the story of dentists buying Bitcoin to establish companies and Metaplanet, which I have shortened; for details, please refer to the previously compiled Saylor interview articles: 《 BTC Conference｜Michael Saylor Speech: 21 Keys Unlocking BTC Billion-Level Wealth》 and 《 Exclusive Interview with Michael Saylor: $62 Billion is just the beginning, Strategy's Bitcoin reserves will increase exponentially》;

I once said in Las Vegas that corporations are the most effective wealth creation machines we have designed so far. If we view the spread of Bitcoin as a monetary virus or super idea, when Bitcoin comes into contact with individuals, the spreader of the virus is a corporation. When a corporation restructures capital through Bitcoin, the real opportunity for any publicly traded company is to sell equity or issue credit.

All equity capital in the world is valued based on future expectations of fiat cash flows. For example, every company in Nigeria is valued based on expectations of Nigerian cash flows. Brazilian companies are based on Brazilian cash flows. American companies are based on cash flows. But we know that the value of cash is declining.

Faced with bullish, heterogeneous, and uncertain risks, such as credit risk or stock risk, all creditors' values are based on future expectations of cash flows. I have no money to borrow from you, I promise to pay you back, and I plan to get this money in 10 years. Therefore, the existing market is based on future expectations of business operations. We are assessing real-world assets, evaluating future cash flows, and assessing equity or opportunities.

The Bitcoin treasury company has the most elegant business model; I have some Bitcoin (worth $10 million). I start issuing stock based on my ability to acquire more Bitcoin, then credit, fixed credit, convertible credit, and other credits, and then I use it to buy Bitcoin. For example, Metaplanet reserves Bitcoin through frequent stock issuances, and its market value shows exponential growth, while Strategy announced a $21 billion ATM plan last year to purchase Bitcoin, and if we achieve this in three years, it will become the most successful stock plan in capital market history.

I just want to say that a company is a gathering of a financial expert, a legal expert, and a leader ------ a CEO, a CFO, and a Chief Legal Officer come together to form a Bitcoin treasury company. If you put Bitcoin into it, then your company can grow as quickly as issuing securities and purchasing Bitcoin.

In other words, this is also an investment cycle, 1000 times faster and more uniform than the cycles of physical assets, real estate, or business. The main conflict point is the issuance of securities, which requires compliance and is a regulatory challenge. If you are Japanese, the situation is different from that of a French person. In the UK, you need a Bitcoin treasury company that understands UK law, and the same goes for France, Norway, Sweden, and Germany.

Moreover, these companies have local advantages; if you are a Japanese company, it is much easier to issue securities in Japan than for an American company to issue securities in Japan. I know this; I called Simon (Metaplanet CEO). I said, you might issue preferred stock in the Japanese market earlier than I can, go ahead and do it.

So I think this is the simplicity of the business model; I just need to issue billions of dollars in securities and then buy billions of dollars in Bitcoin. I want to transform the stock and credit capital markets from the 20th century's simulated physical cash (based on cash) to the 21st century's Bitcoin (based on cryptocurrency).

About the BTC Credit Model

We have developed a set of metrics to assess the equity value priced in Bitcoin. Since we adopt the Bitcoin standard, simple dollar accounting methods do not apply because dollar accounting is designed for companies that generate revenue through operations. Therefore, we created the BTC yield, which is essentially the appreciation and percentage per Bitcoin.

The idea is that if you can achieve a 20% BTC yield, you can multiply it by a factor, such as 10, so you can achieve a 200% premium relative to net asset value (NAV). To calculate what the premium relative to NAV is, it is a very simple method, depending on whether the company generates a 220% yield, or a 10% or 200% yield; for example, a bond that pays 200% interest after tax is worth much more than a bond that pays 5% interest after tax, therefore, BTC yield or dollar yield is an equity metric.

The dollar yield of Bitcoin is essentially equivalent yield. A Bitcoin company is based on Bitcoin; if you generate $100 million in Bitcoin dollar yield, that is equivalent to $100 million in after-tax income, which directly counts towards shareholder equity, bypassing the profit and loss statement (PnL). However, a company that can generate billions of dollars in BTC yield is the same as a company that can generate a billion dollars in yield; you can use PDE (Odaily note: PDE is a partial differential equation model that can model the price dynamics of financial derivatives, widely used in options pricing) and then say, I should set the value of PDE to 10, 20, 30, or any other number multiplied by that yield.

This allows me to understand the enterprise value of this business and the ability of the enterprise to execute this business. The question now is, how to generate BTC-based yield or BTC U-based yield? There are several ways to do this:

The first way is to manipulate cash flow, putting all operating profits into Bitcoin, which will yield corresponding returns, involving $100 million in operating cash flow. I use this money to buy Bitcoin. In this way, I achieve $100 million in Bitcoin yield without diluting any shareholder equity, but it requires an operating company that can generate significant cash flow to do this;

The second way is that if you sell equity at a price higher than net asset value (M times NAV), for example, selling $100 million in equity at 2 times NAV, then you will achieve $50 million in BTC yield. Of course, if you sell equity below NAV, you are effectively diluting shareholder stakes and will achieve a negative yield;

I believe that BTC yield and returns are important because they provide investors with a simple, transparent, and immediate way to understand whether the management team is engaging in value-added transactions or dilution transactions on any given date. As long as publicly traded companies are willing to dilute shareholder equity, they can raise almost any amount of funds. The real trick is that these must be done in a value-added manner. So these two metrics are important, but now we have solved this problem.

For example, if my cash flow is exhausted, what will you do if the BTC price rises? If M is 10 or 5 or 8, this is not a complicated question. When M is 10, you get about 90% of the difference, so every $1 billion in equity sold can generate $900 million in yield, which is risk-free immediate yield. Essentially, this is not complicated.

The question is, what happens if M drops to 1 or below? If you have no cash flow and M drops to 1, but you have a billion dollars in Bitcoin on your balance sheet, what will you do? If you are a closed-end trust fund like Grayscale, or if you are an ETF (especially a closed-end trust fund), you will be powerless. Therefore, your trading price will be below M times NAV.

And this is exactly what people want to avoid. However, the special power that operating companies have is to issue credit instruments. Therefore, if the discount price trades or the trading price drops to the normal market price, then the way to truly get out of trouble is to start issuing credit instruments, which are secured by company assets, leading to the concept of the BTC credit model.

If I have $1 billion in Bitcoin, I can sell $100 million in bonds or $100 million in preferred stock with a dividend yield of 10%. This is equivalent to 10 times collateral. Therefore, the rating of Bitcoin is 10, and now you can calculate the risk; the risk is that your $1 billion in Bitcoin may shrink to less than $100 million when the instrument matures. You can calculate it statistically like the Black-Scholes Model (Odaily note: The Black-Scholes model is a mathematical model in finance widely used for pricing options and other derivative financial instruments), inputting volatility, BTC rating, deriving risk, and then calculating the credit spread, which we refer to as BTC credit.

BTC credit represents the theoretical credit spread you need to offset risk (relative to the risk-free rate), and of course, there is the credit spread itself. If the BTC rating is 2, the credit spread will be higher than if the rating is 10; if the predicted volatility of Bitcoin is 50, the credit spread must be higher than if the volatility of Bitcoin is 30.

Therefore, if you fill in your expected Bitcoin return rate or annual yield into the BTC credit model, and fill in the expected volatility of Bitcoin, and then fill in the price of Bitcoin, you get the BTC rating, and the risk will pop up, and the BTC credit model will pop up. What we are doing is starting to issue credit instruments backed by Bitcoin, and our idea is to hope to sell securities to a market that is orthogonal (completely unrelated) to the stock market and Bitcoin market, or an unrelated market.

In the dollar yield market for U.S. retirees. Many people do not know what Bitcoin is, do not know what Strategy is, and are completely unaware of our business model, but if we offer them preferred stock with a 10% face value dividend, providing them with a 10% yield and qualified income distribution, a qualified type of tool, if your annual income is below $48,000, you can purchase this tool in the U.S. and receive a 10% tax-free yield.

Many people want 10%. The question now is risk; if it is 5 times or more collateral, then it does not seem so dangerous. If you are bullish on Bitcoin, my idea is simple: provide someone with high fixed returns at very low risk; I believe collateral is a killer application for Bitcoin. Strategically, what we have done is create a convertible preferred stock called "Strike" (stock code: STRK), which allows you to gain 40% upside in stock and an 8% face dividend.

Then we created a convertible preferred stock called "Strife" (STRF), offering a 10% yield. These two stocks are the most successful preferred stocks of this century. They are the most liquid and highest performing; when other preferred stocks trade down 5%, they all rise 25%.

They are the most successful because any security purely constrained by Bitcoin is always better. These equities are more valuable, convertible bonds are more valuable, and these preferred stocks are more valuable because you are connected to an asset that rises 55% annually. We put it into those tools, and they will be very successful, listed, and achieve stock price increases. Now the idea is that we can market to people.

We can sell people a 40% upside in stock, while Bitcoin may rise 80%, with downside protection and guaranteed dividends. So we call it "Strike." It's like a Bitcoin bonus; it's like you get a living allowance, you have enough funds to protect, you can be in the car, and hold it forever.

This is for those who are curious about Bitcoin but afraid of the "roller coaster," like a "turbocharged" version of Bitcoin stock MSTR. But there are also many people who do not want to touch Bitcoin; they only want dollar yields, euro yields, or yen yields, but how many people in the world have this idea? The fact is that for all retirees, no one does not want to obtain an 8% or 10% dividend yield at very low risk.

That is why the size of the credit market and fixed income market is larger than the stock market. What we are doing is using Bitcoin to generate this yield. If Bitcoin is rising and has already risen 55%, then you can almost cut any proportion of yield from 50%, as long as it is below 55%, it can be distributed to investors. Moreover, I believe the long-term highest forecast for Bitcoin is 30%, but I believe the annual yield of Bitcoin will always remain between 20% and 60%.

As long as the return rate of Bitcoin reaches 20% or above, you can sell these tools that provide 6%-10% return rates at any time and exchange them for 20%-40% return rates. To capture the price difference for equity investors, so the performance of equity will outperform Bitcoin. As for convertible bonds, this is our financial engineering.

We are transforming companies, with the goal of making their actual performance outperform Bitcoin by 50% to 100%. If you want to invest directly in Bitcoin, you can buy BTC on IBIT and hold it. But through our stocks, you will gain all the gains and losses of Bitcoin, as well as all the volatility; the design of the STRK convertible bond is aimed at providing you with 80% to 100% of Bitcoin's yield, but only bear 10% of the downside risk. So we hope you can achieve 80% of the upside yield, bear 10% of the downside risk, and receive guaranteed dividends. This is suitable for those who want to enjoy returns while avoiding risks; they do not want roller coaster-like volatility. This is almost to compete with IBIT; if I give you 80% to 100% upside yield, 100% downside risk, and no dividends, what will happen in the end (IBIT)?

I do not know if it will fully reach 100%, but the more equity we leverage, the greater the likelihood that convertible equity will perform equally to Bitcoin. Therefore, our goal is to make convertible equity perform comparably to Bitcoin in the long term while providing principal protection, liquidation priority, and guaranteed dividend flow. That's it. It seems there is a demand in the market; people want to enjoy the upside without taking on the downside risk, right? This is financial engineering; what I bring you is the upside, you have no loss, and while you wait to get rich, I will also give you dividends. In my view, smart financial engineers would agree with my point, but many people have not fully understood it. They have not fully understood because in the last 10 preferred stocks issued in the past four years, there has never been a permanent convertible preferred stock issued.

The top three of the 10 preferred stocks are all ours, and they are all permanent; the other seven are not. People generally do not sell perpetual dividends or perpetual call options because they do not have the right to use perpetual income; they cannot invest for 100 years. If you are confident in Bitcoin and believe Bitcoin will always outperform the S&P 500, then you can sell a dividend that is always below the S&P index. Then you can also sell convertible preferred stocks that outperform the market, which is a good thing. So we designed such a product, and then the idea about fixed income is, are we going to give someone an indefinite perpetual dividend yield? Traditional thinking suggests that designing a call option is more reasonable.

If interest rates fall, you can redeem it. This is a way that traditional bankers like; you set a call option, and if interest rates fall by 200 basis points, you exercise this option and refinance it.

But you think, if you sell 144 A (Odaily note: SEC's Rule 144 A, which allows qualified institutional buyers to trade unregistered private securities in the over-the-counter market, these securities typically have low liquidity but flexible trading, suitable for institutional investors) in the trading market for three years in exchange for trading in the over-the-counter market, but these are all incomplete tools from the 20th century, then the current way of thinking is: I inject STRF into the market, I do not care how much I see in the first week; I created this tool to maximize fundraising over the next 20 years.

So we want to design a tool; if Powell lowers interest rates by 200 basis points, then when the trading price of STRF rises to 150, the yield will drop to 6%. When the yield drops to 6%, we can sell it instead of buying it back.

The whole idea is that when interest rates fall, I will sell billions or even hundreds of billions of this financial instrument through ATM at prices of 150 or 200, while those "smart people" will think, I have to buy it back, refinance it, and go back to do a 144 A deal with an investment bank, paying huge amounts to refinance it, so STRF will become both liquid and flawed, so I do not want to issue a series of flawed and illiquid securities.

By the way, what I am describing is the entire preferred stock market; all preferred stocks are, in my view, garbage. You buy these garbage tools, with daily trading volumes of only $400,000, yielding 6%, with credit ratings equivalent to a medium-sized regional bank, and the mortgage portfolio comes from a place you have never touched and do not understand, and yet you have to accept this non-liquid over-the-counter product with little trading and a yield of 6%, instead of a higher-yielding, more liquid product that everyone can buy.

Of course, the problem is that all corporate credit, all preferred stocks, are based on the century-old idea of 20th-century credit models. We conclude that the killer application of Bitcoin treasury companies is to issue Bitcoin credit, which is equity backed by Bitcoin, and this is the first step.

But the long-term sustainable business is to issue BTC-backed credit instruments, first issuing billions, tens of billions, and hundreds of billions. You are not competing with other Bitcoin treasury companies; you are competing with all the garbage bonds issued by all companies without funds and all corporate bonds issued by all investment-grade companies. And our collateral is better than the best investment companies issuing corporate bonds; our collateral is superior.

So, we are competing in this market with corporate bonds, investment-grade bonds, junk bonds, private credit, and preferred stocks. Our idea is to sell some products with better credit, lower risk, higher quality collateral, higher yields, and greater liquidity.

Our ultimate goal is, rather than having a thousand preferred stocks, each with a circulating stock of $500 million, which are illiquid and worthless junk stocks, it is better to have only one preferred stock with a circulating stock of $50 billion, trading $2 billion daily, which will yield higher than anything you have heard of; it has Bitcoin as support. To achieve this, you only need to adopt the metrics I just described, which every Bitcoin treasury company can replicate, and I sincerely invite all companies to give it a try.

I encourage companies to do this, because just as 20 Bitcoin treasury companies issuing stocks have legitimized Bitcoin and Bitcoin stocks, 20 companies issuing Bitcoin-backed credit instruments will also legitimize Bitcoin credit, accelerating the digital transformation of all credit markets and triggering capital to transform the flawed credit tools of the 20th century into digital credit tools of the 21st century, and S&P, Moody's, and Fitch will begin to rate them.

Everyone's understanding of credit risk will evolve. Retirees receive a 200 basis point yield while their risk is reduced by at least an order of magnitude. If Bitcoin's price rises to $1 million/$2 million, the value of collateral will also increase, and the market as a whole will evolve accordingly.

What I express is that the capital market digital transformation driven by these blockchain technology companies will quickly end the currently popular capital market methods.

Answering Journalists' Questions

This part is Saylor's response to journalists' questions,

Journalist expresses concerns about the centralization of Bitcoin mining pools

The network is decentralizing; I am not worried about mining pool centralization. I believe Bitcoin mining is decentralizing globally. Today, it is more decentralized than during the period when China banned mining. At that time, China accounted for half of the mining volume, and mining was somewhat centralized; later, mining migrated to the U.S., and in the past year or two, mining has migrated from the U.S. to all over the world. Ultimately, I feel that mining does not have such a big impact.

Hash power is in the hands of economic participants, political participants, Bitcoin miners, and technology providers, and there is more consensus among all parties compared to five years ago. Moreover, I believe that policy-driven mining will ultimately be replaced by economic and technical participants. In my view, Bitcoin is actually stronger than ever before. I am not worried about the current situation, and it will continue to be good in the future.

Journalist asks about exchange KYC review-related issues

We need to clarify one point: you are not working with exchanges or companies; you are in a Bitcoin world, and exchanges are just a medium. You can completely bypass them. Today, the way people handle cryptocurrency exchanges is dynamically evolving. As the digital asset environment becomes more flexible, we will see an explosive growth of innovation happening at the national and individual levels. Regardless of today's situation, it may not be the same five years from now. There will be more freedom and privacy; they will develop very good technologies that may spread to other parts of the world. Other countries will also make mistakes regarding KYC and review, rather than privacy.

KYC is not a Bitcoin issue; it is a national identity issue. If you find yourself in a particularly unfriendly country that deprives you of your privacy or economic freedom, then the answer is, of course, you either use technology from elsewhere, such as VPNs and firewalls, or you obtain citizenship from another country.

Bitcoin is global; it allows every country and participant to participate, and Layer 2, 3, and 4 technologies may be developed as quickly as possible around the world. Some things done in countries where you do not reside may be illegal or culturally unacceptable in your country. As a Bitcoin holder, you may benefit from someone else in another place; if you own Bitcoin in Cuba or North Korea, although profitable, these are illegal in some places.

Similarly, much technology will flow from the U.S. to countries that do not allow it. And there will be technology flowing from other countries to Europe, which may not be allowed. I believe this dynamic balance has no standard answer; the best answer will be protocols like the Bitcoin Lightning Network, which can provide you with the most sovereign-resistant and robust monetary asset acquisition and circulation methods.

So all of this is gradual; everything is evolving. Do not be overly idealistic; the fact is that Bitcoin has now surged to a market value of $2.3 trillion, and we are in a good position. The best and brightest technicians around the world are starting to spend more money on programming and innovation, as well as on BTC Layer 2 and 3, to solve all existing problems. Bitcoin is a movement, a technology, and a protocol that provides us with a hopeful path to solutions, better than any other protocol I currently know of.