Matrixport Market Observation: BTC Whales Offloading, ETH Continues to Lead, Capital Flow Becomes Market Focus

Last week (July 22 - July 28), BTC maintained a high-level consolidation. ETH's capital flow continued to improve, with ETH spot ETFs experiencing net inflows for eight consecutive weeks, raising ETH's market share to 11.8%. On July 25, due to significant selling pressure from Galaxy Digital, BTC briefly fell below the $115,000 support level, dipping to $114,723.16, and then quickly rebounded above the consolidation range. Currently, BTC's price is stable around $118,859, with upward momentum building, and the maximum volatility during the week was 4.59%.

ETH spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $402 million last week, outperforming BTC spot ETFs, achieving eight consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling over $7 billion. After a brief surge, ETH entered a consolidation period, and driven by capital, it surged again on the 28th to $3,941, with the current price stabilizing around $3,876, and the maximum volatility during the week was 12.5%. (The above data is sourced from Binance spot, as of July 29, 17:00).

Last week, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.26%, the Nasdaq up 1.02%, and the S&P 500 up 1.46%. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was reported at 4.40%, and the 2-year yield was 3.91%.

Market Interpretation

Ancient Whales Concentrate on Selling, BTC Price Quickly Recovers

In late July, the market's focus shifted to the large transfer events involving "ancient whales." On-chain data showed that Galaxy Digital deposited a total of 80,000 BTC (approximately $9 billion) to various exchanges multiple times on July 25. This operation originated from eight old addresses holding 10,000 BTC each. Galaxy Digital's official announcement confirmed that this transaction was part of a long-term holder's estate planning strategy, marking the largest nominal value outflow in cryptocurrency history.

Affected by the massive selling pressure, BTC's price temporarily dropped from $119,000 to $115,000, showing significant short-term volatility. However, subsequent market performance indicated strong buying support, and BTC's price quickly rebounded above $117,000, with the selling pressure rapidly absorbed. The 80,000 BTC accounted for about 0.5% of the circulating supply, and the actual impact was far lower than market expectations, reflecting the overall ample liquidity and funding in the current bull market phase.

ETH Approaches $4,000 Key Level, Staking and Capital Demand Polarization

In mid-July, the queue for ETH unstaking surged, accumulating over 475,000 ETH, with a total value of approximately $1.9 billion, mainly due to soaring lending rates triggering concentrated liquidations of circular loan strategies, leading to a large number of users withdrawing, exacerbating the decoupling of LST/LRT and secondary market pressure. Meanwhile, new staking demand for ETH remains strong, with institutions continuously increasing their holdings, effectively buffering the impact of large-scale unstaking, showing a clear polarization in supply and demand.

Since June 2025, ETH has accumulated an increase of nearly 80%, with the current price approaching $4,000, outperforming most mainstream crypto assets. This round of price increase is driven by whale accumulation, a decrease in exchange circulation, and an increase in staking scale, with about 30% of ETH locked in staking and over 1.5 million new ETH staked, tightening the circulation side. In the derivatives market, ETH perpetual contracts have reached new highs in open interest, with a neutral funding rate and rational market sentiment. Institutional allocation is accelerating, with net inflows into spot ETH ETFs exceeding $3 billion in the past two months, and over ten listed companies holding positions, reinforcing the logic of medium- to long-term allocation. Amid market rotation, BTC's market share has dropped to 60%, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate has strengthened, making ETH a mainstream target for capital inflows.

Altcoin Sector Polarization Intensifies, Solana and XRP Stand Out in Capital Inflows

Recently, the altcoin market has shown polarization, with Solana and XRP demonstrating significant capital attraction. Last week, Solana saw a net inflow of $311 million, mainly benefiting from the meme coin trading frenzy and an active DeFi ecosystem, becoming the preferred choice for developers and users due to its high throughput and low-cost advantages. XRP had a net inflow of $189 million, benefiting from the nearing conclusion of the SEC lawsuit and the advancement of cross-border payment business, reaching a historical high of $3.66 in July, with the approval of a spot ETF further enhancing liquidity.

Other altcoins showed mixed performances. SUI had a net inflow of $8 million, with market attention on its Move language ecosystem innovation; while Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash saw net outflows of $1.2 million and $660,000 respectively, indicating a decline in funding preference for "old" projects lacking innovation support. Currently, ETH continues to lead among mainstream coins, and the ecological expansion of Solana and XRP is expected to drive new capital inflows.

Market Highlights

Focus on Macroeconomic Data and Policy Trends, Market Volatility May Intensify

This week, macro policies and technology sector earnings reports will be the core variables affecting market sentiment. The first U.S. White House crypto policy report is set to be released on July 30, which may bring new regulatory guidance to the digital asset industry. On July 31, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision, with Chairman Powell attending a press conference. Currently, the market's expectation probability for a rate cut in September is 62.4%. If there are changes in the wording or economic outlook during this meeting, it may trigger a reassessment of monetary policy adjustments in the market.

In the tech stock sector, the BTC financial company Strategy, listed on Nasdaq, will disclose its second-quarter performance after the U.S. stock market closes on July 31 and hold an online seminar. As an important holder of BTC assets, its earnings report will be a focal point for the market. Coupled with the upcoming core data releases on GDP, employment, and inflation from major global economies, market volatility may further amplify under the interplay of macro and industry fundamentals. Investors need to closely monitor policy trends and key earnings performance, remaining vigilant against market disturbances caused by emotional fluctuations.

Disclaimer: The above content does not constitute investment advice, sales offers, or purchase offers to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore, or other countries or regions where such offers or invitations may be prohibited by law. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.