I. Global Macroeconomic Variables Reshape Asset Pricing Pathways: Inflation, the Dollar, and a New Round of Capital Games

In the second half of 2025, global financial markets entered a new era dominated by macroeconomic variables. Over the past decade, liquidity easing, global collaboration, and technological dividends formed the three pillars of traditional asset pricing. However, as we enter this cycle, these conditions are undergoing systematic reversals, and the pricing logic of capital markets is being profoundly reshaped. Cryptographic assets, as a frontier reflection of global liquidity and risk appetite, are seeing their price trends, funding structures, and asset weights driven by new variables. The three core variables are the stickiness of structural inflation, the structural weakening of dollar credit, and the institutional differentiation of global capital flows.

First, inflation is no longer a short-term volatility issue that can be quickly suppressed; it is beginning to exhibit stronger "stickiness" characteristics. In developed economies represented by the United States, core inflation levels have consistently remained above 3%, far exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2%. The core reason for this phenomenon lies not in simple monetary expansion but in the continuous solidification and self-amplification of structural cost-push factors. Although energy prices have returned to a relatively stable range, the surge in capital expenditures brought about by artificial intelligence and automation technologies, the price increase effects of upstream rare metals during the green energy transition, and the rising labor costs due to manufacturing relocation have all become sources of endogenous inflation. At the end of July, the Trump team reaffirmed that starting August 1, high tariffs on bulk industrial and technology products from countries such as China, Mexico, and Vietnam would be fully restored. This decision not only signifies the continuation of geopolitical games but also indicates that the U.S. government views inflation as an acceptable "strategic cost." Against this backdrop, the costs of raw materials and intermediate products faced by U.S. companies will continue to rise, pushing consumer prices into a second round of increases, forming a "policy-driven cost inflation" pattern. This is not the traditional overheating inflation but rather a policy-driven embedded inflation, whose persistence and penetration into asset pricing will far exceed that of 2022.

Secondly, against the backdrop of persistently high inflation, the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy is unlikely to loosen quickly, with the federal funds rate expected to remain above 5% at least until mid-2026. This creates a "suppressive pricing" effect on traditional stock and bond markets: the yield curve in the bond market is inverted, long-duration products are severely impacted, and the stock market faces a continuous increase in discount factors in valuation models. In contrast, crypto assets, especially Bitcoin and Ethereum, have a valuation logic more based on a "growth expectation - scarcity - consensus anchor" overlapping model, which is not directly constrained by traditional interest rate tools. Instead, in a high-interest-rate environment, their scarcity and decentralized characteristics attract more capital attention, exhibiting a "reverse monetary cycle" pricing behavior. This characteristic allows Bitcoin to gradually transform from a "high-volatility speculative asset" to an "emerging alternative value reserve asset."

More profoundly, the "anchoring" position of the dollar globally is facing structural weakening. The U.S. fiscal deficit continues to expand, with the federal deficit surpassing $2.1 trillion in the second quarter of 2025, an 18% year-on-year increase, setting a historical high for the same period. Meanwhile, the U.S.'s status as a global settlement center is facing decentralization challenges. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and India are actively promoting local currency settlement mechanisms, including cross-border payment systems such as the Renminbi-Dhirham and Rupee-Dinar, which are beginning to replace some dollar settlements. Behind this trend is not only the cyclical damage caused by dollar policies to non-U.S. economies but also these countries' proactive attempts to decouple from a "single currency anchor." In this environment, digital assets have become neutral, programmable, and de-sovereignized alternative value media. For example, stablecoins like USDC and DAI are rapidly expanding in OTC trading and B2B cross-border payments in African and Asian markets, becoming a digital extension of the "underground dollar system" in emerging countries, while Bitcoin has become a tool for capital flight and a safe haven against local currency depreciation. In countries like Argentina, Nigeria, and Turkey, the purchasing power premium for BTC has exceeded 15%, reflecting genuine capital hedging demand.

It is noteworthy that as the trend of de-dollarization accelerates, the internal credit system of the dollar itself is also showing signs of fatigue. Moody's and Fitch simultaneously downgraded the outlook for the U.S. long-term sovereign credit rating to "negative" in June 2025, primarily citing "structural irreversibility of long-term fiscal deficits" and "political polarization affecting budget execution." The systemic warning from rating agencies regarding U.S. Treasury bonds triggered increased volatility in the Treasury market, prompting safe-haven funds to seek diversified reserve forms. The purchase volume of gold and Bitcoin ETFs rapidly increased during the same period, indicating a preference for reallocating institutional funds toward non-sovereign assets. This behavior reflects not only liquidity demand but also a "valuation escape" from the traditional asset system, where global capital seeks alternative anchors to rebalance the "systemic security" of its investment portfolios as U.S. stocks and bonds gradually overextend in valuation.

Finally, the institutional differences in global capital flows are reconstructing the boundaries of asset markets. Within the traditional financial system, issues such as tightening regulation, valuation bottlenecks, and rising compliance costs are limiting the expansion space for institutional funds. In the crypto space, especially influenced by the relaxation of ETF approvals and auditing systems, crypto assets are gradually entering a stage of "compliance legitimacy." In the first half of 2025, several asset management companies received approval from the U.S. SEC to launch themed ETFs including SOL, ETH, and AI-related crypto assets, with funds indirectly entering the blockchain through financial channels, reshaping the funding distribution pattern among assets. Behind this phenomenon is the strengthening of the institutional framework's dominant role over funding behavior paths.

Therefore, we can see an increasingly clear trend: changes in traditional macro variables—including the institutionalization of inflation, the dulling of dollar credit, the long-term high interest rate environment, and the policy-driven diversion of global capital—are collectively driving the onset of a new pricing era. In this era, value anchors, credit boundaries, and risk assessment mechanisms are all being redefined. Crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, are transitioning from a liquidity bubble phase to a stage of institutional value acceptance, becoming direct beneficiaries under the reconstruction of the macro monetary system's margins. This also provides a foundation for understanding the "main logic" of asset price movements in the coming years. For investors, updating cognitive structures is far more critical than short-term market judgments; future asset allocation will no longer merely reflect risk appetite but will also be a reflection of the depth of understanding of institutional signals, monetary structures, and the global value system.

II. From MicroStrategy to Public Company Financial Reports: The Institutional Logic and Diffusion Trend of the Coin-Stock Strategy

In this cycle of 2025, the most structurally transformative force in the crypto market comes from the rise of the "coin-stock strategy." From MicroStrategy's early attempts to use Bitcoin as a corporate financial reserve asset to an increasing number of public companies actively disclosing their crypto asset allocation details, this model is no longer an isolated financial decision but is gradually evolving into a corporate strategic behavior with institutional embeddedness. The coin-stock strategy not only opens up a flow channel between capital markets and on-chain assets but also gives rise to new paradigms in corporate financial reports, equity pricing, financing structures, and even valuation logic. Its diffusion trend and capital effects have profoundly reshaped the funding structure and pricing models of crypto assets.

From a historical perspective, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy was once seen as a "high-stakes" high-volatility gamble, especially during the significant downturn of crypto assets between 2022 and 2023, when the company's stock price faced considerable scrutiny. However, entering 2024, as Bitcoin's price broke historical highs, MicroStrategy successfully reconstructed its financing logic and valuation model through a structured strategy of "coin-stock linkage." The core lies in the synergistic drive of a three-fold flywheel mechanism: the first layer is the "stock-coin resonance" mechanism, where the BTC assets held by the company amplify the net value of crypto assets on the financial statements through rising coin prices, thereby boosting stock prices and significantly lowering the cost of subsequent financing (including equity issuance and bonds); the second layer is the "stock-debt synergy" mechanism, which introduces diverse funding through issuing convertible bonds and preferred stocks while leveraging the market premium effect of BTC to reduce overall financing costs; the third layer is the "coin-debt arbitrage" mechanism, which combines traditional fiat currency liability structures with the appreciation logic of crypto assets, forming cross-cycle capital transfers over time. After this mechanism was successfully validated by MicroStrategy, it was rapidly imitated and structurally transformed by the capital market.

Entering 2025, the coin-stock strategy is no longer limited to experimental allocations by individual companies but has spread to a broader range of public companies as a financial structure that combines strategic and accounting advantages. According to incomplete statistics, by the end of July, over 35 public companies globally had explicitly included Bitcoin in their balance sheets, with 13 also allocating ETH and another 5 experimenting with allocations in mainstream altcoins like SOL, AVAX, and FET. The common characteristic of this structural allocation is that, on the one hand, it builds a financing closed loop through capital market mechanisms, and on the other hand, it enhances the company's book value and shareholder expectations through crypto assets, thereby boosting valuation and equity expansion capabilities, forming positive feedback.

Supporting this diffusion trend is, first and foremost, changes in the institutional environment. The "GENIUS Act" and "CLARITY Act," which officially took effect in July 2025, provide clear compliance pathways for public companies to allocate crypto assets. Among them, the "mature blockchain system" certification mechanism established by the "CLARITY Act" directly categorizes core crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities, stripping the SEC of its regulatory authority over them as securities, thus creating legal legitimacy for companies to include these assets in their financial reports. This means that public companies no longer need to classify their crypto assets as "financial derivatives" under risk categories but can account for them as "digital commodities" under long-term assets or cash equivalents, and even participate in depreciation or impairment calculations in certain scenarios, thereby reducing accounting volatility risks. This shift allows crypto assets to be listed alongside traditional reserve assets like gold and foreign currency reserves, entering the mainstream financial reporting system.

Secondly, from the perspective of capital structure, the coin-stock strategy creates unprecedented financing flexibility. In a high-interest-rate environment set by the Federal Reserve, traditional corporate financing costs remain high, making it particularly difficult for small and medium-sized growth companies to achieve leveraged expansion through low-cost debt. However, companies allocating crypto assets can leverage the valuation premium brought about by rising stock prices to obtain higher sales and book value ratios (PS and PB) in the capital market, while also using crypto assets themselves as collateral to participate in on-chain lending, derivative hedging, and cross-chain asset securitization, thus achieving a dual-track financing system: on-chain assets provide flexibility and yield, while off-chain capital markets provide scale and stability. This system is particularly suitable for Web3 native enterprises and fintech companies, granting them far greater capital structure freedom than traditional paths within a compliance framework.

Additionally, the coin-stock strategy has also triggered a shift in investor behavior patterns. After crypto assets are widely allocated on public company balance sheets, the market begins to reprice the valuation models of these companies. Traditionally, corporate valuations are based on profitability, cash flow expectations, and market share, but when large-scale crypto asset holdings appear in corporate financial reports, their stock prices begin to exhibit highly correlated movements with coin prices. For example, the stock prices of companies like MicroStrategy, Coinbase, and Hut8 have significantly outperformed industry averages during Bitcoin's upward cycles, demonstrating a strong premium for the "gold content" of crypto assets. Meanwhile, an increasing number of hedge funds and structured products are beginning to view these "high-coin-weight" stocks as alternatives to ETFs or proxies for crypto asset exposure, thereby increasing their allocation weight in traditional investment portfolios. This behavior structurally promotes the financialization of crypto assets, allowing Bitcoin and Ethereum not only to exist as assets themselves but also to gain indirect circulation channels and derivative pricing functions in the capital market.

Furthermore, from a regulatory strategic perspective, the diffusion of the coin-stock strategy is also seen as an extension tool for the U.S. to maintain its "dollar discourse power" in the global financial order. Against the backdrop of a global surge in CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) pilot projects, the continuous expansion of Renminbi cross-border settlement, and the European Central Bank's push for digital euro testing, the U.S. government has not actively launched a federal-level CBDC but has chosen to shape a decentralized dollar network through stablecoin policies and a "regulatable crypto market." This strategy requires a compliant, high-frequency market entry with substantial funding capabilities, and public companies, as bridges connecting on-chain assets and traditional finance, are precisely fulfilling this function. Thus, the coin-stock strategy can also be understood as an institutional support for the U.S. financial strategy of "non-sovereign digital currencies replacing dollar circulation." From this perspective, public companies allocating crypto assets are not merely making accounting decisions but participating in a national-level financial architecture adjustment.

The more profound impact is the global diffusion trend of capital structures. As more and more U.S. public companies adopt the coin-stock strategy, listed companies in the Asia-Pacific, Europe, and emerging markets are also beginning to follow suit, attempting to secure compliance space through regional regulatory frameworks. Countries like Singapore, the UAE, and Switzerland are actively revising securities laws, accounting standards, and tax mechanisms to open institutional pathways for their domestic companies to allocate crypto assets, forming a competitive landscape for the acceptance of crypto assets in global capital markets. It is foreseeable that the institutionalization, standardization, and globalization of the coin-stock strategy will be important evolutionary directions for corporate financial strategies in the next three years and will serve as a key bridge for the deep integration of crypto assets and traditional finance.

In summary, from MicroStrategy's single-point breakthrough to the strategic diffusion among multiple public companies, and then to the normative evolution at the institutional level, the coin-stock strategy has become a key channel connecting on-chain value and traditional capital markets. It is not only an update of asset allocation logic but also a reconstruction of corporate financing structures, as well as a result of the bidirectional game between institutions and capital. In this process, crypto assets have gained broader market acceptance and institutional security boundaries, completing a structural leap from speculative assets to strategic assets. For the entire crypto industry, the rise of the coin-stock strategy signifies the start of a new cycle: crypto assets are no longer merely on-chain experiments but have truly entered the core of global balance sheets.

III. Compliance Trends and Financial Structure Transformation: Accelerating the Institutionalization of Crypto Assets

In 2025, the global crypto asset market is at a historical juncture where the wave of institutionalization is accelerating. Over the past decade, the main axis of the crypto industry has gradually shifted from "innovation speed overwhelming regulatory pace" to "compliance frameworks driving industry growth." As we enter the current cycle, the core role of regulation has evolved from "enforcer" to "institutional designer" and "market guide," reflecting a renewed understanding of the structural influence of national governance systems on crypto assets. With the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, the implementation of stablecoin legislation, the initiation of accounting standard reforms, and the reshaping of capital market risk and value assessment mechanisms for digital assets, the compliance trend is no longer an external pressure on industry development but has become an endogenous driving force for financial structure transformation. Crypto assets are gradually embedding into the institutional network of mainstream financial systems, completing the leap from "gray financial innovation" to "compliant financial components."

The core of the institutionalization trend is first reflected in the clarification and gradual relaxation of regulatory frameworks. From the end of 2024 to mid-2025, the U.S. successively passed the "CLARITY Act," "GENIUS Act," and "FIT for the 21st Century Act," providing unprecedented clarity on commodity attribute recognition, token issuance exemption conditions, stablecoin custody requirements, KYC/AML details, and the applicable boundaries of accounting standards. Among these, the most structurally impactful is the "commodity attribute" classification system, which views foundational blockchain assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as tradable commodities, explicitly excluding them from securities law regulation. This classification not only provides a legal basis for ETFs and spot markets but also creates a certain compliance pathway for institutions such as companies, funds, and banks to include crypto assets. The establishment of this "legal label" is the first step toward institutionalization and lays the groundwork for subsequent tax treatment, custody standards, and financial product structure design.

At the same time, major global financial centers are competing to promote localized institutional reform, forming a competitive landscape where "regulatory lowlands" are transformed into "regulatory highlands." Singapore's MAS and Hong Kong's Monetary Authority have introduced multi-tiered licensing systems, incorporating exchanges, custodians, brokers, market makers, and asset managers into differentiated regulatory frameworks, establishing clear thresholds for institutional entry. Abu Dhabi, Switzerland, and the UK are also piloting on-chain securities, digital bonds, and combinable financial products at the capital market level, ensuring that crypto assets not only exist as an asset class but are gradually evolving into fundamental elements of financial infrastructure. This "policy experimentation" mechanism safeguards innovation vitality while promoting the digital transformation of the global financial governance system, providing new pathways for institutional upgrades and collaborative development in traditional finance.

Under the impetus of institutional changes, the internal logic of financial structures is also undergoing profound changes. First is the reconstruction of asset categories, with the proportion of crypto assets in large asset management institutions' allocation strategies increasing year by year, rising from less than 0.3% of global institutional allocations in 2022 to over 1.2% in 2025, with expectations to exceed 3% in 2026. This proportion may seem low, but the marginal flow it represents within a multi-trillion-dollar asset pool is sufficient to rewrite the liquidity and stability structure of the entire crypto market. Institutions like BlackRock, Fidelity, and Blackstone are not only launching BTC and ETH-related ETFs but are also incorporating crypto assets into core asset allocation baskets through proprietary funds, fund of funds (FOF) products, and structured notes, gradually establishing their roles as risk hedging tools and growth engines.

Secondly, the standardization and diversification of financial products are evident. Previously, the main trading methods for crypto assets were limited to spot and perpetual contracts, but under compliance promotion, the market has rapidly derived various product forms embedded in traditional financial structures. For example, crypto ETFs with volatility protection, bond-type products linked to stablecoin interest rates, ESG asset indices driven by on-chain data, and on-chain securitized funds with real-time settlement functions. These innovations not only enhance the risk management capabilities of crypto assets but also lower the participation threshold for institutions through standardized packaging, allowing traditional funds to effectively engage in on-chain markets through compliant channels.

The third layer of financial structure transformation is reflected in the clearing and custody models. Starting in 2025, the U.S. SEC and CFTC jointly recognized three "compliant on-chain custody" institutions, marking the formal establishment of a bridge between asset ownership, custody responsibilities, and legal accounting entities for on-chain assets. Compared to previous models based on centralized exchange wallets or cold wallet custody, compliant chain custody institutions achieve asset layered ownership, transaction permission isolation, and embedded on-chain risk control rules through verifiable technology, providing institutional investors with risk control capabilities approaching those of traditional trust banks. This change in the underlying custody structure is a key infrastructure building block for institutionalization, determining whether the entire on-chain finance can genuinely support complex structured operations such as cross-border settlements, collateralized lending, and contract settlements.

More importantly, the institutionalization of crypto assets is not only a process of regulation adapting to the market but also an attempt by sovereign credit systems to incorporate digital assets into macro-financial governance structures. As the daily trading volume of stablecoins exceeds $3 trillion and begins to assume actual payment and settlement functions in some emerging markets, central banks' attitudes toward crypto assets are becoming increasingly complex. On the one hand, central banks are promoting CBDC development to strengthen their national currency sovereignty; on the other hand, they are adopting an "open management with neutral custody + strong KYC" approach toward certain compliant stablecoins (such as USDC and PYUSD), effectively allowing them to undertake international settlement and payment clearing functions within certain regulatory scopes. This shift in attitude indicates that stablecoins are no longer adversaries of central banks but one of the institutional containers in the process of reconstructing the international monetary system.

This structural change ultimately reflects on the "institutional boundaries" of crypto assets. The market in 2025 is no longer segmented by a discontinuous logic of "crypto circle - chain circle - outside the circle," but is forming three continuous levels: "on-chain assets - compliant assets - financial assets." There are channels and mapping mechanisms between each level, meaning that each type of asset can enter the mainstream financial market through some institutional pathway. Bitcoin has transitioned from an on-chain native asset to an ETF underlying asset, Ethereum has evolved from a smart contract platform asset to a token for general computing financial protocols, and even governance tokens from certain DeFi protocols have entered FOF fund pools as risk exposure tools after being structurally packaged. This flexible evolution of institutional boundaries allows the definition of "financial assets" to genuinely possess the potential for cross-chain, cross-national, and cross-institutional systems for the first time.

From a more macro perspective, the essence of the institutionalization of crypto assets is the adaptive response and evolution of the global financial structure under the digitalization wave. Unlike the "Bretton Woods system" and "petrodollar system" of the 20th century, the financial structure of the 21st century is being reconstructed with a more distributed, modular, and transparent approach to the fundamental logic of resource flow and capital pricing. As a key variable in this structural evolution, crypto assets are no longer outliers but are manageable, auditable, and taxable digital resources. This process of institutionalization is not a sudden change in a specific policy but a systemic evolution of regulatory, market, enterprise, and technological interactions.

Therefore, it is foreseeable that the process of institutionalization of crypto assets will further deepen, and in the next three years, three coexisting models will emerge in major global economies: one is the "market opening + prudent regulation" model led by the U.S., with ETFs, stablecoins, and DAO governance as institutional axes; another is the "restricted access + policy guidance" model represented by China, Japan, and South Korea, emphasizing central bank control and licensing mechanisms; and the last is the "financial intermediary experimental zone" model represented by Singapore, the UAE, and Switzerland, providing institutional mediation between global capital and on-chain assets. The future of crypto assets is no longer a struggle between technology and institutions but a reorganization and absorption of technology by institutions.

IV. In Conclusion: From Bitcoin's Decade to Coin-Stock Linkage, Welcoming a New Landscape for Crypto

In July 2025, Ethereum celebrates its tenth anniversary, and the crypto market has transitioned from early experimentation to institutional recognition. The widespread initiation of the coin-stock strategy symbolizes the deep integration of traditional finance and crypto assets.

This cycle is not merely a market initiation but a reconstruction of structure and logic: from macro monetary policies to corporate assets, from crypto infrastructure to financial governance models, crypto assets have truly entered the realm of institutional asset allocation for the first time.

We believe that in the next 2-3 years, the crypto market will evolve into a three-pronged structure of "on-chain native yields + compliant financial interfaces + stablecoin-driven" dynamics. The coin-stock strategy is just the prologue; deeper capital integration and governance model evolution are just beginning.