HTX DeepThink: Macroeconomic Dislocation and Repricing of Crypto Assets: How the Federal Reserve's Reevaluation and "Project Crypto" are Reshaping the Market Landscape

At the end of July, as macro signals were densely released over several days, the cryptocurrency market found itself at a crossroads of policy games and regulatory restructuring. In this issue, HTX Research Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) interprets and analyzes the unexpected weakening of U.S. non-farm employment, the re-evaluation of Federal Reserve policy pricing, and the regulatory paradigm shift triggered by the SEC's launch of "Project Crypto," pointing out that core assets like Bitcoin are gaining dual support from macro and institutional dividends.

Non-Farm Shift, Policy Expectations Dramatically Change

After the July FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range of 5.25%-5.50% and refused to provide a timeline for rate cuts, causing market concerns about the "long-term high interest rates." As a result, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 4.24%, the dollar index climbed back above 100, and gold fell below $3,270, with Bitcoin subsequently dipping to the $116,000 range, while on-chain activity also declined. However, the non-farm employment report released three days later unexpectedly "collapsed": only 73,000 new jobs were added, far below the consensus expectation of 180,000; simultaneously, the employment figures for May and June were revised down by about 90% (129,000), revealing a "systematically overestimated" labor market. The sudden cooling of macro fundamentals triggered a sharp repricing in the interest rate market: the CME FedWatch's probability of a rate cut soared from 38% to 82%, with bets on two rate cuts before the end of the year rising to 64%. The 10-year yield subsequently fell below 4.10%, gold rebounded by $40 to $3,363, while Bitcoin dropped to a low of $112,000 due to panic over recession narratives.

However, regarding overall economic resilience, several structural data points indicate that the U.S. is still in a "slow growth" rather than a "systemic recession" phase: as of the second quarter of 2025, household debt accounted for only 98% of disposable income, significantly lower than the peak of 133% during the 2008 crisis; the credit card default rate has slightly decreased from 2.7% to 2.5% this year, indicating that the household leverage safety cushion remains robust. Retail sales have stabilized year-on-year in the 2.8%-3.1% range, with consumption supported by the wealthiest 10% of households—this group holds 72% of the nation's wealth and contributes nearly half of the spending. On the corporate side, JPMorgan and Bank of America's latest financial reports show that commercial loans are still growing at a year-on-year rate of 5%-7%, with no significant increase in bad debt provisions, indicating that there has been no systemic credit contraction. Historical experience suggests that a combination of "marginal employment decline + sticky inflation decrease" often serves as a prelude to a shift in monetary policy from tight to loose, with risk assets entering a window of "high volatility and liquidity games"; core assets like BTC and gold are favored for their hedging value, while altcoins are constrained by valuation compression and deleveraging risks.

Regulatory Breakthrough, On-Chain Finance Benefits

More disruptive changes are coming from the regulatory side. On July 31, the new chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Paul Atkins, launched "Project Crypto," declaring the intention to bring U.S. finance "fully on-chain," and to rewrite regulatory norms with relaxed regulations, innovation exemptions, and safe harbor mechanisms. He clearly stated that most crypto assets should not be uniformly classified as securities, and that automated market making and on-chain lending belong to "non-intermediated financial activities" that should receive institutional recognition. This move releases significant policy dividends for DeFi protocols: highly autonomous protocols like ++Uniswap++, ++Aave++, and ++Lido++ are expected to gain legitimacy, providing a repair window for token valuation logic that has long been suppressed by the "securities shadow."

Atkins also proposed a "Super-App" license blueprint—allowing operators to integrate traditional securities, crypto assets, staking, and lending services under a single license, giving platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood a first-mover advantage; Robinhood has already launched ERC-20 form U.S. stock tokenized trading through the acquisition of Bitstamp, while Coinbase is laying out the prototype of a "one-stop on-chain brokerage" through the Base chain. The regulatory draft also specifically names ERC-3643 as a reference template for RWA tokenization, which includes ONCHAINID identity and permission management, allowing for the native embedding of KYC/AML rules, paving the way for the secure on-chain of trillion-dollar assets like real estate and private equity.

More critically, the SEC plans to revise the decades-old Howey Test to establish disclosure exemptions and safe harbors for on-chain native economic activities such as airdrops, ICOs, and staking, truly writing "issuing tokens does not equal securities" into regulatory guidelines. This means that entrepreneurial teams no longer need to "take a detour to the Cayman Islands" or block U.S. users, and primary capital is expected to flow back domestically, potentially restarting the on-chain venture capital cycle in the U.S.

Triple Resonance, Valuation Logic Restructured

Combining macro easing repricing with regulatory paradigm shifts, Bitcoin's role as a "global anti-inflation anchor + policy game tool" is further solidified. From a strategic perspective, BTC and ++ETH++ remain the core assets of current market attention, with the market continuously observing the trend of BTC's market share changes and the exchange rate deviations of stablecoins against BTC to assess potential directions for capital allocation. For altcoins and high-leverage strategies, in the context of a temporarily strengthening dollar or long-term rates returning above 4.4%, market volatility may intensify. Meanwhile, DeFi protocol tokens with regulatory clarity and real yield models, as well as RWA-themed assets centered around the ERC-3643 standard, may enter a new round of valuation restructuring driven by policy dividends and practical implementation, becoming a key focus for market participants in the medium term. Overall, the global cryptocurrency market stands at the starting point of a "macro slowdown + liquidity easing + regulatory upgrade" triple resonance—the valuation anchor of core assets is rising, while the institutional dividends of on-chain finance are opening up the next round of structural opportunities.

Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation for investment products.

About HTX DeepThink

HTX DeepThink is a cryptocurrency market insight column created by Huobi HTX, focusing on global macro trends, core economic data, and hot topics in the cryptocurrency industry, injecting new thinking power into the market, helping readers "find order in chaos" in the unpredictable world of cryptocurrency.

About HTX Research

HTX Research is the exclusive research department under Huobi HTX, responsible for in-depth analysis of a wide range of fields including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to providing data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methods and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading the development of industry thought and facilitating a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics.