"Three arrows launched: Is the value logic of Ethereum being rewritten?"

Author: imToken

Ethereum is standing at an unprecedented node of "multiple narrative resonance."

On-chain, the scale of ETH staking continues to rise, gradually establishing a "risk-free interest rate anchor"; in traditional finance, spot ETFs have been operating for over a year, with trading volume and net inflows rapidly increasing, marking the continuous injection of compliant funds; at the corporate level, more and more publicly listed companies in the U.S. are strategically choosing to include ETH in their treasury reserves.

Staking, ETFs, and corporate treasuries—these three seemingly independent threads are resonating with each other, collectively pushing ETH from a single cryptocurrency to a comprehensive financial asset with yield attributes, compliant channels, and corporate reserve value.

If Bitcoin's story is "digital gold," then Ethereum's narrative is quietly shifting towards "global ledger," and is expected to reach a critical "resonance moment" in 2025.

Staking steadily rises, ETH "benchmark interest rate" emerges

Since the Shanghai upgrade in April 2023, which opened the staking withdrawal feature, Ethereum has completely resolved the dam-like exit risks, unleashing the growth potential of the staking ecosystem. Subsequently, the derivatives market based on LSD has rapidly expanded, driving the ETH staking rate continuously higher.

As of the time of writing, the amount of ETH staked has surpassed 33.8 million, valued at approximately $14 billion at current prices, accounting for over 25% of the total supply, a significant increase from about 10% a few years ago. This not only strengthens network security but also enhances the scarcity of ETH from a supply-demand perspective.

More importantly, ETH staking is gradually becoming the "interest rate anchor" of on-chain finance.

Over the past year, an annualized staking return rate of 3%-5% has been widely accepted by the market, even regarded by some institutional research reports as the "on-chain version of government bond yields," forming an implicit comparison with the U.S. Treasury yield curve. This attribute makes ETH not just a trading asset but also embodies the underlying logic of fixed-income-like products.

Of course, a noteworthy reverse trend has recently emerged—since July 16, the number of ETH unstaking requests has surged, with validator exit requests skyrocketing from fewer than 2,000 to 475,000 by July 22, and waiting times have extended from under an hour to over 8 days.

According to data from The Block, there are currently about 670,000 ETH (approximately $3.1 billion) in the exit queue, far exceeding new staking demand, with an expected processing time close to 12 days. The main reasons driving a large amount of ETH unstaking include the unwinding of leveraged staking cycles amid rising prices, the risk of LST decoupling, and arbitrage opportunities, with Lido, EthFi, and Coinbase being the main sources of exits.

Source: The Block

However, despite the short-term volatility brought by the wave of unstaking, from a long-term perspective, ETH staking has gradually become the "risk-free interest rate anchor" on-chain, becoming one of the underlying financial logics of ETH.

It is worth noting that U.S. Treasury yields are expected to remain in the range of 4%-5% in 2024, which has made ETH staking rates seem less attractive for a time. However, as the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates in 2025, the 3%-5% staking yield of ETH regains competitiveness and is even viewed as "excess returns" in some risk models.

This indicates that the on-chain interest rate of ETH is establishing a deeper implicit connection with the global liquidity environment, especially as re-staking protocols like EigenLayer have absorbed over $10 billion worth of ETH, creating a chain logic of "staking rate → re-staking premium → protocol security."

In other words, ETH is not only an asset in itself but is gradually becoming the underlying collateral of the Web 3 financial system.

ETFs become the main channel for traditional funds

In May 2024, the U.S. SEC approved the 19b-4 applications for 8 Ethereum spot ETFs, which officially began trading on July 23, marking the formal opening of the compliant channel between ETH and Wall Street. To date, Ethereum spot ETFs have been operating for over a year.

Objectively speaking, ETFs, as a "compliance entry," provide traditional institutions with a direct channel to allocate ETH, reducing compliance friction at the financial and auditing levels. According to SoSoValue data, as of now, the total net asset value of U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs has exceeded $27 billion, accounting for approximately 5.34% of Ethereum's market value, with a cumulative net inflow of $12.4 billion since their launch.

However, the market often overestimates the short-term effects of new things while underestimating their long-term influence. The development of ETH spot ETFs is a reflection of this pattern, as the true explosion of ETFs did not manifest from the beginning—before May of this year, the average daily trading volume of ETH ETFs remained relatively low, with limited market interest.

Source: SoSoValue

The turning point occurred on August 11, 2025, when the net inflow of Ethereum ETFs exceeded $1 billion for the first time in a single day, with BlackRock's ETHA attracting $640 million and Fidelity's FETH attracting $277 million. The capital siphoning effect of these two giants has become evident, signaling the institutional shift of Ethereum ETFs.

The significance of ETFs lies in the fact that they are not only a "channel" for funds but also a "legal status" on compliance audits and financial statements, greatly reducing the resistance for institutions to hold ETH. Another profound implication is that it opens up arbitrage and allocation paths for cross-border financial institutions.

More importantly, the concentration of ETF holdings has begun to emerge, with BlackRock and Fidelity's two ETFs accounting for 2/3 of the U.S. ETH ETF market. This trend of concentration not only brings about a capital siphoning effect but may also indicate that the "institutional pricing" characteristics of ETH will become increasingly apparent in the future.

ETH accelerates into U.S. corporate balance sheets

If MicroStrategy is a milestone case of a publicly listed company incorporating crypto assets into its balance sheet for BTC, then starting in 2025, ETH is also迎来类似的转折点.

Recently, an increasing number of U.S. companies have chosen to include ETH in their treasury, and not just symbolically, but through large-scale, strategic allocations.

For example, BitMine has disclosed that its crypto asset holdings have exceeded $6.612 billion, an increase of about $1.7 billion compared to the previous week's $4.9 billion, with BitMine holding 1.523 million ETH (valued at $4,326 each at current prices) and also holding 192 BTC.

Source: BitMine

At the same time, Nasdaq-listed company Cosmos Health announced a securities purchase agreement with a U.S. institutional investor for up to $300 million to initiate its ETH treasury strategy, providing custody and staking infrastructure through BitGo Trust.

This proactive trend of incorporating ETH into treasuries differs from the passive allocation of ETFs: ETFs primarily carry the exposure demand of financial products, while companies directly purchasing ETH and incorporating it into their treasuries indicate that ETH is becoming a real medium of settlement and reserve asset. Whether for financial diversification, cross-border payments, or employee incentives and R&D incentives, ETH is beginning to demonstrate its potential as a "liquid asset."

Overall, after experiencing a wave of widespread pessimism, Ethereum's multiple narratives are forming a synergy:

• Staking yields provide ETH with a "government bond-like" interest rate anchor;
• ETFs open up channels for compliant fund allocation;
• Corporate treasuries further endow ETH with real value for reserves and payments;

These three intertwine, collectively pushing ETH from "cryptocurrency" to "financial infrastructure asset."

If Bitcoin represents "digital gold" in corporate treasuries, then Ethereum's value narrative is gradually pointing towards "the liquidity core of the global ledger."