HTX DeepThink: BTC breaks support triggering chain selling pressure, market sentiment enters a fragile critical point

Recently, Bitcoin has fallen below a significant support level, leading to a rapid deterioration in overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market. In this issue, HTX Research analyst Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) will analyze the current fragile market structure surrounding Bitcoin's technical patterns, derivatives market dynamics, and upcoming macroeconomic data.

Market Imbalance Intensifies, Panic Sentiment Rises

As of the early morning of September 26, Bitcoin has broken below the support level of $114,500 to $115,000, with the latest quote around $112,967. Over the past week, more than $92.7 million has flowed out of exchanges, and the on-chain return rate (SOPR) has declined, resulting in over $400 million in liquidations. The technical indicators show that the 20-day moving average has crossed below the 50-day moving average and converged with the 100-day moving average. The RSI has dropped to 36, approaching the oversold zone but has not yet shown a clear reversal signal. The cost price for short-term holders is around $111,400, and whales have sold approximately 147,000 BTC in the past month, putting pressure on market sentiment.

Data from the options market indicates a prevailing bearish sentiment. The "max pain" point from Deribit data is at $110,000, and the perpetual contract funding rate has dropped to about 4%, indicating a lack of speculative enthusiasm. The proportion of put options traded has increased, and the Put/Call trading ratio continues to decline, suggesting that investors prefer to lock in profits using in-the-money put options. Meanwhile, total open interest is nearing historical highs, and Gamma exposure is close to its peak, forcing market makers to hedge during the downturn, amplifying price volatility.

Sentiment is also pessimistic. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index shows a value of 28 on September 25, indicating "fear," down from 44 the previous day and 53 the week before, reflecting a rapid deterioration in investor sentiment. According to the index's definition, 0-25 is extreme fear, 26-46 is fear, and 47-54 is neutral. This indicates that the market is shifting from neutral to a clear risk aversion. The volatility index (VIX) for U.S. stocks above 16 represents expectations of increased volatility over the next 30 days. The financial analysis platform CoffeewithQ points out that a VIX above 16 does not indicate panic, but traders expect market volatility to intensify, possibly due to upcoming important economic data, geopolitical risks, and technical weaknesses. When the VIX is in the 16-20 range, market sentiment is defined as "increasing volatility," while 20-30 tends to be tense, and above 30 indicates panic. We believe that the current fear index presents a good opportunity for bottom-fishing.

Future Trends Will Be Dominated by Key Macroeconomic Data

Next week's macroeconomic data may become a key factor influencing sentiment. The U.S. Department of Commerce will release August personal income and spending data on September 26. Current forecasts generally predict a month-on-month increase in personal income of 0.3% and personal consumption expenditures of 0.5%; the PCE price index is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase to 2.7%. The core PCE price index, which is more closely watched by the Federal Reserve, is expected to fall to 0.2% month-on-month, while remaining around 2.9% year-on-year. If the core PCE exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve may continue to adopt a cautious stance, which would be unfavorable for risk assets. Subsequently, the non-farm payroll report for September will be released on October 3, with the market generally expecting a slowdown in growth. If the data is strong, it may further raise interest rate expectations, potentially increasing selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market; conversely, weaker data may alleviate pressure. Additionally, the U.S. balance of payments data to be released on September 29 and the ISM manufacturing index in early October are also important indicators for assessing economic momentum.

In summary, the oversold technical indicators, bearish positions in the options market, and rising panic sentiment indicate that the cryptocurrency market is currently in a fragile stage. In the short term, the market may continue to test the $110,000 support level and watch for signs of "liquidation panic"; if the key support holds and the core PCE and employment data are weak, a rebound from oversold conditions may occur.

Note: The content of this article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, or recommendation of investment products.

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HTX Research is the exclusive research department under Huobi HTX, responsible for in-depth analysis across a wide range of fields, including cryptocurrencies, blockchain technology, and emerging market trends, writing comprehensive reports, and providing professional assessments. HTX Research is committed to delivering data-driven insights and strategic foresight, playing a key role in shaping industry perspectives and supporting informed decision-making in the digital asset space. With rigorous research methodologies and cutting-edge data analysis, HTX Research consistently stands at the forefront of innovation, leading industry thought development and facilitating a deeper understanding of the ever-changing market dynamics.