Dialogue with Tom Lee on Solana, treasury, live streaming, and ecosystem

Original Title: Kyle Samani: Forward and onwards - the job is not done with Solana
Original Source: Mable Jiang
Original Compilation: Ismay, BlockBeats

Editor's Note: As the DAT craze continues to ferment, Solana has once again become the focus of capital and narrative. Kyle Samani, founder and partner of Multicoin Capital, recently, in his new role as chairman of Forward Industries, pushed for a $1.65 billion PIPE financing, injecting a new strategy of "Solana Digital Asset Vault" into this NASDAQ-listed company. For him, this is not only a financial engineering feat in the capital markets but also a cutting-edge experiment of the vision of "Internet Capital Markets." Whether through DeFi and mergers to amplify "earnings per SOL" or exploring on-chain governance, on-chain dividends, and on-chain shareholder structures, Kyle is trying to answer one question—can a publicly listed company in the U.S. be natively on-chain and reshape the global capital markets with Solana as the foundation?

Here is the full content of the conversation:

Mable Jiang: Hello everyone, welcome to the latest episode of the "Post-Wave" podcast. I am your host, Mable. Today, I am very pleased to invite a special guest, who was actually the opening guest when I first did a crypto podcast—Kyle Samani.

Kyle Samani: Mable, thank you very much for inviting me again. I remember this is my second time on your podcast, and I am very happy to meet everyone here. I am Kyle Samani, founder and managing partner of Multicoin Capital. We are an SEC-registered investment advisory firm based in the U.S., and we are almost eight years old this year, specifically on October 1.

We currently manage about $3 to $4 billion in assets, covering hedge funds and a range of venture capital funds. Just a few days ago, I also became the chairman of Forward Industries, a NASDAQ-listed company.

This week, we announced a very exciting deal: Multicoin co-initiated and participated in a $1.65 billion PIPE investment, which was officially completed last Wednesday. As part of the deal, Forward Industries has added a significant strategic direction beyond its core business—creating a Solana digital asset vault company. We are very much looking forward to working with the Forward team, as well as colleagues from Jump, Galaxy, and Multicoin to push this forward.

From Multicoin to Forward, Kyle's "Dual Identity" Turning Point

Mable Jiang: That's great! I intentionally did not mention your title at the beginning because you are now both a managing partner at Multicoin and the chairman of Forward Industries. Before diving into the details, let me ask a simple question: if someone wants to buy Forward's stock in the secondary market, what kind of exposure are they actually getting?

Kyle Samani: That's a very interesting question.

Forward Industries is a NASDAQ-listed company with the stock code FORD, which can be easily confused with Ford Motor Company, whose code is F, while ours is F-O-R-D. So, if you buy Forward Industries' stock, you are primarily gaining strategic exposure to our Solana digital asset vault.

After completing the transaction last Wednesday, the company has already started buying SOL. I think by the time this podcast goes live, we will also publicly disclose our specific SOL holdings, so stay tuned. In fact, I personally invested $25 million into Forward. I am very excited about this opportunity because, as a publicly listed company, we have the chance to earn "SOL per share" more than simply buying SOL itself.

The most direct way is to actively participate in DeFi. One of the biggest differences between Solana and Bitcoin is that it has a thriving DeFi ecosystem with various protocols. And we are fortunate that, thanks to my role at Multicoin, we have invested in almost all of the core projects in this ecosystem and are very familiar with these founding teams. So we are currently negotiating collaborations with these teams, which can not only earn native yields by depositing assets but also secure additional incentives and profit-sharing for our shareholders.

We believe this is a win-win outcome for both sides. It is obviously good for shareholders and also beneficial for those DeFi protocols. Because we are a publicly listed company, it means these DeFi protocols can claim that their systems are actually being used by a NASDAQ-listed company, which itself brings additional value. So the first aspect is to leverage our scale, brand, and reputation to negotiate these collaborations.

The second point is that we are trying to enhance shareholders' "SOL per share earnings" through capital market arbitrage. What does that mean? In the U.S., you can currently get a loan from a bank at 4% to 5%. Of course, whether we can fully access this is still uncertain, but we will definitely try our best. Even if the final loan cost is 7%, 8%, or even 9%, we will accept it. We will take out loans in dollars, but not to leverage; instead, we will invest these dollar funds into Solana's DeFi ecosystem and other dollar-denominated strategies.

I believe this operation can yield an annualized return of over 15%. This way, we can convert this arbitrage space into profits for our shareholders. I am very much looking forward to this, and this is precisely the advantage that the flexibility of a publicly listed company gives us.

The third direction we are very excited about is mergers and acquisitions (M&A). Currently, there are about 30 to 40 digital asset vault companies operating in ecosystems like Solana, Ethereum, Bitcoin, Avalanche, and Sui. However, in the long run, the likelihood of all these companies surviving is very low.

And we happen to have a "dream team" combination: Multicoin, Galaxy, and Jump. We have deep trading experience, liquidity management experience, market-making experience, balance sheet scale advantages, and some of the most important counterparty resources in the entire crypto industry. Coupled with Multicoin's status as a leading venture capital firm, bringing these three parties together has already positioned us at the best place for M&A. With our existing balance sheet, we are fully capable of acquiring other digital asset vault companies, whether they focus on Solana or not.

I believe there is a huge opportunity here to continuously bring higher "SOL per share earnings" to shareholders. These are some of the directions we will focus on in the coming weeks and months.

Mable Jiang: Was the $1.65 billion financing subscription exactly this scale, or was the market demand actually greater than this?

Kyle Samani: Market demand far exceeded $1.65 billion. We had to exclude many people and reduce some people's allocations before finalizing this scale. In this transaction, we were very cautious in our choice of shareholder structure; we want shareholders who not only have a long-term positive outlook on Solana but also understand our team's background and truly grasp the goals we aim to achieve.

Of course, there are opportunities for financial engineering here, but more importantly, this is also an opportunity to build "next-generation permanent capital tools," which has the potential to become one of the most interesting companies globally. We are also very fortunate to have selected a group of long-term trusting and supportive shareholders in this transaction.

Mable Jiang: Can you disclose the overall subscription demand for this transaction?

Kyle Samani: I'm afraid I can't say that, but I can tell you that many people were very unhappy because they couldn't get an allocation.

Mable Jiang: I understand. You mentioned an interesting point earlier; you said you would also consider acquiring digital asset vault companies that do not focus solely on Solana. Can you elaborate on that?

Kyle Samani: In fact, the core asset of these digital asset vault companies is their balance sheet; they have almost no intangible assets and not much enterprise value. Frankly speaking, the team strength of most companies is far inferior to ours.

So I expect that in the future, a situation will arise: suppose a company's assets are worth $100, and we might trade at a valuation of $140 or $150, while another digital asset vault company, whether related to Solana or not, might only be at $80, $90, or $100.

This valuation gap means there is arbitrage space, which benefits shareholders on both sides. For example, if we complete an acquisition deal at a level of $110 (this is just an example), both the acquiring and acquired shareholders will benefit. I believe the market will soon realize that this is actually the only inevitable outcome.

At the same time, the market will quickly see who the real winners are. This ultimately depends on the team's capital allocation ability, whether they can achieve shareholder-friendly deals, and their execution capability. In these areas, I am very confident in our positioning.

Mable Jiang: Understood. Let's talk about your governance responsibilities as chairman. Specifically, what responsibilities do you need to undertake in your role as chairman? What is the role of the observer?

Kyle Samani: For me, the most important and ongoing work is to build a complete management team for this new vault business. It needs to be clarified that Forward Industries' existing main business is still the design business, which will still be managed by CEO Mike Pruitt and will not change.

In addition, the company has added a brand new business line, which is the Solana vault business. This is an independent business line with almost no synergy with the existing business, so we need a dedicated management team to be responsible for it. Therefore, we are actively recruiting the core executive team for this new business line, including CEO, CFO, and other positions. If you think you are suitable, we are very willing to discuss these positions with you. Whether it is investment research, marketing, operations, finance, or core management (C-Suite), we are looking for any positions needed to run this business. So if you are interested, please do contact us.

Thus, my most important job as chairman is to help find the right CEO and build this management team. This will certainly take some time. During this period, I will work closely with the Galaxy Asset Management team to guide Forward Industries' vault strategy. Galaxy Asset Management is a department that operates independently within Galaxy; it is a registered investment advisory firm with a direct fiduciary responsibility to Forward Industries to execute the specific strategies we decide to adopt.

So I will work with the Galaxy Asset Management team to set the strategic direction, while the actual execution—whether it is custody, on-chain trading, off-chain trading, etc.—will be managed and completed by the Galaxy team.

Mable Jiang: So on the observer side, their role is mainly to approve the decisions you make, right?

Kyle Samani: Well, not entirely. According to the asset management contract, Galaxy Asset Management has certain discretionary powers when managing the balance sheet. The company's board of directors and CEO Mike will provide guidance and expectations to Galaxy, which will then develop an execution plan based on these requirements, communicate with us for confirmation, and then proceed with the execution. So this is more of a "supervision and collaboration" relationship rather than direct command.

Mable Jiang: Understood. What is the role of the Multicoin team in this?

Kyle Samani: In the past few weeks, the Multicoin team has indeed provided a lot of help in investment and DeFi strategies. However, as we establish a localized management team for Forward Industries, the participation of other members of Multicoin is expected to decrease significantly.

Forward's Capital Operations and Profit Logic

Mable Jiang: You are clearly taking a very proactive stance in the company's operations. For some listeners who may not be familiar with PIPE, convertible bonds, or ATM financing methods, can you explain why you chose the PIPE structure?

Kyle Samani: The PIPE structure is actually the easiest way for us to reach a deal with Forward Industries. The other party is very supportive of this structure, and we agree as well. Moreover, PIPE itself is very "lightweight." The entire financing process took only two weeks. Frankly, this is my first time doing this kind of transaction, and I didn't expect it to be completed so quickly, which also reflects the strong demand in the market for this tool, as we completed $1.65 billion in financing in just two weeks.

Looking ahead, now that the PIPE is completed, we will also consider other financing methods. We may conduct ATM (At-The-Market) issuances, which is a very direct strategy initially pioneered by Michael Saylor. As for other tools, the structure we currently value most is the "perpetual preferred" structure, which is a product launched by Strategy in the last three to four months.

This perpetual preferred stock is interesting; its nominal yield is higher than that of convertible bonds, but the principal never needs to be repaid. For a company whose main assets are its balance sheet and has limited cash flow, this is very favorable. Because if a three-year convertible bond is issued, when it matures in three years and needs to refinance, if interest rates are high or asset prices have plummeted, the company will be in trouble. However, perpetual preferred stock has a fixed coupon but no maturity date, which is a significant advantage for companies like Strategy that have almost no cash flow.

More interestingly, building our digital asset vault company on Solana allows us to obtain two very different types of cash flow. The first type is the yield denominated in SOL, which is the return from staking, very direct, currently around an annualized 8%. The second type is to put SOL into DeFi to obtain additional yields. The third type is DeFi yields denominated in dollars. As I mentioned earlier, we hope to borrow dollars and invest these dollars into Solana's DeFi to achieve higher yields.

Then we can use these yields to pay the coupon. For example, Strategy currently pays a 9% coupon for its perpetual preferred stock. We can earn about 8% from basic SOL staking, and if we add other operations, I optimistically believe our overall yield could exceed 9%, even reaching 11%. This way, even if we issue perpetual preferred stock, we can still cover a coupon of over 9%.

Of course, I still don't know if the market will accept a 9% coupon level; that remains to be seen. Bitcoin is obviously more mature than Solana, but conversely, Bitcoin does not generate any cash flow. So it will be interesting to see how investors in perpetual preferred stock perceive this risk exposure. However, I can confidently say that given Forward Industries' cash flow structure, we are better positioned than Strategy to manage perpetual preferred stock, convertible bonds, or other debt instruments. Because we can directly obtain the native yields from Solana and the DeFi ecosystem, which is very exciting.

Mable Jiang: This is what you mentioned in your article, that you believe the structures of convertible bonds and perpetual preferred stock are more suitable for Solana's digital asset vault company. I understand. However, you mentioned a point earlier that I want to challenge slightly: the native yields of Solana are indeed good, even just staking, there is a level of 7% to 8%. But for most listeners, they know that the lending market on Solana is not very developed. So, the yields denominated in stablecoins on Solana may not be very strong; where will you find these yields?

Kyle Samani: For example, if you lend funds on Kamino, the current yield is about 4% to 5%, so you are right; it is indeed not high. But we believe the more interesting dollar-denominated yields mainly come from some Vault strategies. For example, JLP, and some Drift Vaults managed by teams like Gauntlet, which have yields around 15%, with some even reaching 25%.

Mable Jiang: I noticed that your financing only accepts cash and does not accept any physical tokens. So, where are you purchasing Solana from?

Kyle Samani: That's right. The $1.65 billion in funds all came in cash. We accepted bank wire transfers, USDC, and USDT, but did not accept any form of Solana or other crypto assets, whether circulating or locked, were included in the PIPE. As for how Forward Industries acquires SOL, it is currently done by directly buying it on the open market.

In the future, if there are suitable strategic opportunities, we may also acquire locked SOL. But so far, we have only been buying circulating SOL on the open market.

Mable Jiang: Do you have an expectation for the ratio of locked to circulating SOL?

Kyle Samani: I don't have a specific expectation. The only reference I can provide is that I do not believe a large portion of the company's balance sheet will be allocated to illiquid assets.

Mable Jiang: The so-called locked SOL in the market mainly refers to the portion sold by the foundation in the past, right?

Kyle Samani: Currently, there are indeed only two types of locked SOL that can be purchased. One type comes from transactions with the Solana Foundation, and the other is from those who initially purchased locked SOL from the FTX bankruptcy assets. These are the only two main sources left. We are certainly actively evaluating these two channels.

Solana Vault and the Vision of Internet Capital Markets

Mable Jiang: Well, let's talk about on-chain investment opportunities. Besides Solana's native yields, such as those related to MEV, what other directions are you focusing on?

Kyle Samani: Yes. In fact, there are a large number of excellent DeFi teams on Solana. For example, Gito, Sanctum, Kamino, Drift, Exponent, Dflow, Jupiter, etc. Many teams provide both SOL-denominated opportunities and dollar-denominated opportunities. We will deploy the funds in the company's balance sheet into these SOL and dollar-denominated strategies.

Mable Jiang: In the auditing process, will there be an independent process to review smart contracts? Or will you simply rely on the audit results already published by the teams?

Kyle Samani: We will definitely have a strict process to review contracts before deploying funds. I can tell you that the process used by Forward Industries combines the independent risk control and review systems of Jump, Galaxy, and Multicoin. In other words, we can draw on the strengths of the existing experiences from these three firms and incorporate their opinions on risk management and contract review to develop a more comprehensive and precise set of rules and guidelines.

Mable Jiang: So, making Forward Industries' assets into on-chain tokenized collateral will be one of your priorities?

Kyle Samani: Yes. I want to answer this question from a broader perspective, Mable. Clearly, we have the opportunity to bring additional SOL per share earnings to shareholders. But I believe that if this is the only goal, it is not enough to justify the time and effort we are putting into this project. As everyone knows, I was one of the earliest seed investors in Solana and have maintained a very close relationship with Solana since day one, and I have been a steadfast supporter of Solana for many years.

I believe the most important thing Forward Industries is doing is proving that a publicly listed company in the U.S. can achieve "native on-chain" operations. This includes not only capital market operations, such as issuing the company's equity as on-chain tokenized stocks; it also includes on-chain fundraising, on-chain dividends, and on-chain shareholder governance. In other words, everything you can do on NASDAQ, we hope to accomplish on Solana in the future, and we are willing to be pioneers in doing these things.

In terms of daily operations, we also hope that all affairs can be conducted on-chain. This means on-chain transactions, on-chain earnings, on-chain payroll, on-chain payments to suppliers, etc. Although these cannot be fully realized today, this is our vision.

Of course, many of these things depend on the support of service providers, such as custodians, transfer agents, and other related institutions. But fortunately, with our scale, size, brand, and connections, we have the ability to pressure these service providers to unlock new functionalities. This way, we can prove to the world that a publicly listed company can indeed move all these processes natively on-chain. Our goal is also to make it easier for the next company and the one after that to accomplish the same thing on-chain after we pave the way.

Mable Jiang: By the way, I have a question I forgot to ask earlier, which Yano also mentioned. The funds committed by this fund will not be used to purchase Solana from Galaxy or Multicoin, right?

Kyle Samani: That's right. Forward Industries will never directly purchase SOL held by Multicoin, Galaxy, or Jump, whether circulating or locked.

Mable Jiang: Understood. Based on this, will you consider operating your own validator nodes?

Kyle Samani: Yes, we are currently preparing our own validator nodes and expect to announce relevant news soon.

Mable Jiang: What do you think of Solana's native yields? I know Tushar and Vishal have pushed for SIMD228, trying to adjust the yield distribution mechanism. What are your thoughts on that?

Kyle Samani: Earlier this year, Multicoin Capital submitted a formal governance proposal for the Solana network, namely SIMD228, which aimed to reduce the inflation level of the Solana network and achieve programmatic and dynamic adjustments based on several on-chain variables.

This was a very controversial proposal and ultimately did not pass. The governance vote required 66% support to pass, but it ended up with about 62%, very close, but still failed. Looking back, I have a few thoughts:

First, I am glad to have gone through this process, as it gave me more understanding of the different stakeholders in the Solana community;

Second, the entire discussion was very valuable;

Third, I later changed my stance. At the time of voting, I supported SIMD228, but now as the chairman of Forward Industries, I believe SIMD228 is not the optimal choice for the Solana network.

The reason is that many people are actually more concerned about nominal yields, while SIMD228 would lower nominal yields. One thing I have learned in life is that you must first understand the rules of the game you are participating in, and then find the optimal solution within that framework. There is always a balance between ideals and reality, and I now have a better understanding of the real logic of the game I am in.

Mable Jiang: This is actually what Lily pointed out at the time; she said Solana is still in a rapid growth phase and needs high yields to attract people.

Kyle Samani: Yes, coincidentally, I met Lily in person last week. I hugged her and said, "Lily, you were right."

Mable Jiang: Interesting, I am glad I brought up this topic. I didn't know you had changed your mind. This is important because it will indeed affect Forward Industries' strategy and direction.

Kyle Samani: That's right.

Mable Jiang: Awesome. I previously had a private chat with Tushar about DAT, and he mentioned that you thought the DAT craze would pass, but soon after, you announced new actions. So I guess there must have been some discussions internally. How did you change your mind?

Kyle Samani: Actually, just two months ago, my view on DAT was mainly based on observations of Bitcoin DAT. And Bitcoin DAT itself does not have cash flow and cannot access the native DeFi ecosystem.

Another important reason that made me change my mind was a speech given by SEC Chairman Paul Atkins on July 31, titled Project Crypto. In his speech, he clearly stated, "We need to move the U.S. securities market on-chain."

As I reflected more on this speech, I realized that as the chairman of a publicly listed company, one of the most important things I could do is to help Chairman Atkins realize his vision. Although I did not realize this within five minutes of finishing the speech (ideally, I wish I could have grasped it immediately), I eventually figured it out. This made me realize that we really have the opportunity to turn the future "will" into reality because the SEC chairman has told us that this is exactly what needs to be done.

Mable Jiang: That makes sense, and I think it leads to my next question. I saw Mike Novogratz mention in an interview with CNBC that Solana can accommodate more transactions, including stocks, fixed income, commodities, and network transactions. So, does Solana now have the infrastructure to settle global securities transactions?

Kyle Samani: I was fortunate to meet Anatoly and Raj early on and led their seed round investment in 2018. You could say they had a clear "North Star" goal from the very beginning. Initially, Solana's North Star vision was referred to as "Decentralized NASDAQ." However, over time, this vision has evolved in branding.

The current version, we call it "Internet Capital Markets." It essentially continues the same core idea but expresses it in a more forward-looking way rather than looking back. The term "Decentralized NASDAQ" carries a strong "looking back" implication, referencing a company that has existed for 50 years; while "Internet Capital Markets" is a future-oriented vision with idealistic colors.

In this process, we realized—Solana can currently handle about 10 billion transactions per day. If you look at the daily transaction numbers of major regulated financial exchanges globally, you will find that it is far less than this scale.

Of course, market makers will post a large number of limit orders and cancel them; here I am referring to the actual transaction numbers after excluding canceled orders. If you look at the daily transaction numbers of major global markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ, CME, LSE, and Singapore Exchange, the total is also less than 10 billion. This fact made us suddenly realize: wait, even though Solana still has various defects and issues that need to be fixed today, it can already accommodate the settlement of all global securities transactions. This is a shocking discovery and highlights the enormous opportunity ahead.

So when we talk about the future of Internet capital markets and what scale we need to expand to, we are particularly excited. Because this means Solana has the potential to become the global trading engine, not just for securities but also for commodities, foreign exchange, and even more other assets.

Mable Jiang: You just mentioned that the combined trading of all traditional financial markets is less than 10 billion transactions per day. Does this mean that almost everything can be traded on Solana? Not just stocks or equities, but also commodities, etc.?

Kyle Samani: That's right; this is the vision of Internet capital markets—building a globally unified system that is permissionless and operates year-round. Anyone, with just a phone and an internet connection, can trade any asset through any software.

When you describe it this way, it is actually a very intuitive and simple concept. For internet natives, this is almost the way the future world operates. But today's financial system does not operate this way—aside from cryptocurrencies, no financial market operates this way. Even in the crypto space, there is still a gap from this ideal.

Once you see such a future, you can no longer "unsee" it. I am very optimistic that one day, the global financial infrastructure will operate on top of Internet capital markets.

How to View New Things in the Crypto Space like Content Coins and Pump Live Streaming?

Mable Jiang: You seemed not particularly optimistic about "long-tail asset trading" before?

Kyle Samani: No, actually quite the opposite; long-tail assets are precisely the fundamental driving force behind the development of capital markets to where they are today. For example, I certainly wouldn't call Bitcoin a long-tail asset now, but 10 years ago, Bitcoin was a typical long-tail asset. Seven years ago, Ethereum was also a long-tail asset. Solana now has a market cap exceeding $100 billion, and I wouldn't call it a long-tail asset anymore.

But the fact is, people create 10,000, 20,000, or even 30,000, 40,000 new assets on the Solana chain every day. So yes, it is these long-tail assets that have brought us to today, and this trend will clearly not stop. People will continue to enjoy the fun of inventing new assets. But the real, real, real big opportunity lies in moving those traditional assets that people already want to trade—securities, commodities, foreign exchange, derivatives, etc.—to trade on Solana.

Mable Jiang: The reason I had that impression is that I remember we talked about "Content Coin" in May, and at that time, you seemed to disagree with that argument.

Kyle Samani: That's right; based on my current understanding, I am still quite skeptical about content coins overall. Of course, there are many design forms of content coins, so my view may be too one-sided.

My biggest concern about content coins is that any specific piece of content itself has a very strong timeliness and transience, making it difficult to maintain value over the long term. I tend to believe that if tokens are to be issued tied to creators' works or outputs, it is better to tie them to something that reflects long-term value rather than just a momentary piece of content.

Mable Jiang: Understood. In fact, you wrote a post in July where you said you believe that neither Zora nor Pump has solved the "intrinsic conflict between trading and entertainment."

Kyle Samani: Yes, let's take a step back; I think "entertainment finance" is a very clever and beautiful concept that has immense psychological power. The concept of entertainment is very intuitive—whether you like comedy or drama, "entertainment" is easy to understand. And finance also has a large audience; the opportunity to make money is inherently exciting. Not everyone likes risk, but for those who are keen on risk, finance is obviously attractive.

Therefore, for a considerable portion of the population, entertainment finance is highly appealing. In my view, the earliest form of "entertainment finance" in human history is actually Jim Cramer. I think he is the 1.0 version of entertainment finance. Of course, I know many crypto people might laugh at him; I used to laugh at him too.

But I have gradually learned to appreciate him because he was the first to create this model. And now we are in the early stages of entertainment finance 2.0. Entertainment finance 2.0 is more like Roaring Kitty (the person behind GameStop) or Dave Portnoy. You might remember, he held a green hammer and had a YouTube show called "Davey Day Trader Global" almost every day. Today, on platforms like Pump, thousands of people are live streaming every day.

The core service they provide is essentially entertainment finance. I believe this direction is about to explode. I would also draw a parallel to sports, especially sports betting. If you ask those who love to bet why they love it, they will say: I love football, and I also love financial risk. Combining these two things feels very natural.

Moreover, it has a clear binary outcome that can be revealed within one or two hours. This mechanism is very easy to become addictive. So back to your question, platforms like Zora and Pump are essentially trying to create entertainment finance 2.0 and 3.0. The core service they provide is, in my view, entertainment finance. I think some form of live streaming is very likely to become the breakthrough point for entertainment finance 2.0.

Last weekend, Pump indeed had a highlight moment, but whether it can continue is still uncertain. I don't have a particularly strong judgment in this regard. It certainly has potential and is exciting, but it is still too early. However, I do believe that live streaming is a key part because it can bring hosts and audiences together in interaction. That unpredictable, heartfelt, genuine, and raw feeling cannot be replaced by taking seven or eight carefully selected photos and applying filters. That kind of thing is more like Instagram—very polished but not real.

So I think this "sense of authenticity" is very important. Overall, I tend to remain optimistic about the direction of live streaming.

As the chairman of Forward, I will try many ideas like this. The mission of Forward is to be at the forefront of Internet capital markets, and I believe live streaming is an indispensable part of that. I will also view sports betting through a similar lens—it makes sports more exciting and attractive, which is at the core of "entertainment finance."

Mable Jiang: So what is your ideal vision for Pump? Because I feel you are quite excited about Pump.

Kyle Samani: I am known for my "analogical reasoning," so I will use an analogy to answer your question. I think Pump's bull market vision is: TikTok with tokens, or Twitch with tokens, or a combination of both.

Mable Jiang: TikTok sounds a bit sexier. The co-founder of Pump has recently given quite a few interviews, and I heard him in a conversation with Laura Shin where he clearly stated that prediction markets would not succeed and would not occupy a major market share in this model. What do you think? What are your views on Kalshi and Polymarket?

Kyle Samani: I agree with that statement. However, Multicoin is actually an investor in Kalshi. I have been skeptical about prediction markets for a long time, but I did a 180-degree turn earlier this year. I was fortunate to meet Kalshi's two founders, Tarek and Luana, who are truly outstanding entrepreneurs. I remember one of the founders of Pump said something at that time, I don't know if it was Alon or Noah.

I think it was Noah. But I feel that kind of statement implies an "either-or" exclusivity, which I do not agree with. I believe they can coexist. There are a lot of people in the market, especially those who are wealthy and want to make large trades.

They tend to take risks or hedge risks in a very objective way. The psychological characteristics of this group are completely different from those who interact with hosts in live streams and bet along with them.

So I do not agree with comparing the two. They correspond to two completely different psychological profiles and serve entirely different functions. Of course, in certain scenarios, they can be combined. For example, can the host jump over a bar? Can they win a match? Can they complete an obstacle course in five minutes? These are examples of where prediction markets and live streaming can combine.

But when I think of prediction markets, I tend to think of questions like: Will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates? Who will die in the next season of "The White Lotus"? These broader questions are the true domain of prediction markets.

Mable Jiang: Some things are certain, while others pursue huge returns. Of course, prediction markets won't give you that kind of permanent yield.

Kyle Samani: What I mean is that if you want to make money on something like Pump, there are actually many ways. There are indeed common elements such as speed, analytical ability, and some quantitative elements. But another part is "insight"—can you see a meme in the live stream and have a very intuitive understanding of the current culture and society, sensing what is happening? Maybe AI will achieve this in the future; theoretically, the masters of AI can reach this judgment, but assuming they haven't achieved it yet, this judgment is always very subjective. And questions like "Will the Federal Reserve lower interest rates on Thursday?" have no subjective component. I think these are two completely different audiences.

Mable Jiang: Hmm, I agree. This is how the sense of the internet is reflected in Pump. Let me change the topic: can you talk about some mistakes you made in the past three years? Can you share a few?

Kyle Samani: We have made many mistakes. I have talked about this with many people. I met Kalshi's founder Tarek at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July 2024. I remember talking to him and saying, "Dude, how are you going to compete with Polymarket? You have to face so many regulatory issues, which will slow you down."

He said, "You don't understand; I have my vision." I thought, "Okay, suit yourself." Then I didn't really stop to listen to his vision—this was my mistake. Later, I met an absolute A+ entrepreneur who was doing something related to prediction markets, either directly or indirectly related to crypto, and clearly, this was in the financial domain. I also didn't delve into how much regulatory work they had already done at that time. A few months later, I met Tarek again and made the same mistake.

It wasn't until the third meeting that I realized: wait, this person is interesting. But the problem is that I didn't act quickly enough. That was one of the most serious mistakes I made in Multicoin's history—not taking action quickly enough after meeting Tarek.

Mable Jiang: Wow, that's quite a heavy self-assessment. Do you feel the same way about Ethena?

Kyle Samani: You know, actually, the story with Guy is quite interesting. Guy is now undoubtedly one of the best founders in the DeFi space. I have gradually become familiar with him, and I am also advising their new project, with Multicoin holding some ENA. Going back to Ethena's seed round, about three or four years ago, we were actually on the schedule.

At that time, Vinny contacted us and said we would have a meeting on Monday. But before that, he met with Dragonfly on Friday, and the people from Dragonfly gave him a term sheet that day. According to Guy, that offer was so good that he couldn't refuse, so he signed it before we had our call.

So, I can't really say whether this counts as my mistake; was it my fault, or was it just bad luck? But to be fair, I have to admit that the people at Dragonfly did a great job. Ethena is clearly a great success now, and Guy is outstanding. I am glad to be on the Ethena train now; I just wish I could have gotten on board a bit earlier.

Mable Jiang: Of course. I asked about Ethena because I know Multicoin has always had an investment logic around algorithmic stablecoins. We also felt that this logic would eventually come true; it just depended on who would do it. So I find this quite interesting.

Kyle Samani: That's right, once again, kudos to Dragonfly. They saw the opportunity and identified the founder, and as a result, they hit the mark.

Mable Jiang: What do you think have been the most correct decisions over the past three years?

Kyle Samani: An obvious one is sticking to being bullish on Solana during the FTX crisis. That period was really brutal; there was almost nothing that could compare. Another is choosing to stay in the game. My thought is simple: the job is not done yet.

Mable Jiang: The most difficult moment.

Kyle Samani: Yes, I now clearly recognize that blockchains like Solana have the opportunity to drive Internet capital markets and replace the global financial and payment systems. This entire transformation will be a generational project globally.

I am very excited about Solana; there is no doubt that I believe it will prevail. But clearly, the job is far from done, and we are still quite far away. So, "the job is not done," and I will stay to complete it.

Mable Jiang: What about the other members of the Multicoin team? What new challenges and areas are you exploring now?

Kyle Samani: We are starting to expand into some edge areas. Recently, we made a significant investment in a quantum computing company and are also researching some AI-related projects, as well as investing in telecommunications projects. We believe that telecommunications will eventually re-integrate with crypto, but that is still undecided.

So we continue to focus on entrepreneurs who dare to tackle huge and difficult problems. Of course, we are still a very "crypto-native" fund, but if we see attractive opportunities, even if they are not directly related to crypto, we will participate. I think we will probably make a few such investments each year. ```