Matrixport Market Observation: Trends of Crypto Assets Under Macroeconomic Pressure and Market Divergence

In mid-October, the U.S. Department of Justice seized approximately 127,000 bitcoins (about $15 billion) from Chen Zhi, the founder of the Cambodian Prince Group, marking the largest seizure in history. The Federal Reserve has recently adopted a hawkish stance, with the expectation of a rate cut in December being less than 50%, inflation remaining around 3%, and employment staying resilient. High interest rates, a strong dollar, and policy uncertainty continue to suppress risk assets, including the cryptocurrency market. At the same time, internal industry movements are also affecting market sentiment: the stock prices of large holding companies have fallen, with some companies' market values now below their net bitcoin holdings, reflecting a reassessment of valuations by the market.

Cryptocurrency Market Correction

In the past month, the cryptocurrency market has seen a significant correction. Bitcoin has dropped to around $89,000, and Ethereum has dipped to $2,945, hitting a six-month low. The decline is mainly influenced by macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory events, leading to profit-taking by bulls. Technical indicators show that Bitcoin's RSI has fallen below 30, entering a short-term oversold zone, with prices approaching the six-month support line, and bearish momentum has not yet expanded. Analysts point out that if there are no new negative factors, mainstream coins are likely to find support at current levels and gradually recover.

On-chain Data and Capital Flows

On-chain data shows that stablecoin funds have recently experienced a net outflow, reflecting rising risk-averse sentiment, but exchanges have also seen buying on dips, indicating that bottom-fishing forces are accumulating. Bitcoin holdings are showing a pattern of "large holders reducing positions while retail investors take over," further dispersing the chips. The number of active addresses and on-chain transaction volume remain generally stable, while retail speculation enthusiasm is cooling. The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi has decreased by about 10%-15% from last month's peak, indicating pressure from capital withdrawal. The Ethereum staking rate has risen to about 30%, reaching a historical high, showing strong long-term holding willingness, with no large-scale redemptions, indicating investors' confidence in the ecosystem and yield mechanisms.

Derivatives and Options Market Dynamics

As spot prices decline, the volatility in the Bitcoin options market has risen rapidly, with DVOL once soaring above 50. The 25 skew indicates a strong bearish sentiment in the short term, with nearly 40% of transactions involving buying put options, and open contracts with a strike price of about $95,000 are relatively concentrated, which may amplify short-term volatility. The overall implied volatility curve shows high near-month and low far-month volatility, indicating that investors are cautious about recent risk events, but medium to long-term expectations remain stable.

Performance of Mainstream Coins and Sectors

Amid market adjustments, various sectors and mainstream coins have shown divergent performances. The RWA (Real World Asset tokenization) sector, which has intrinsic yield and risk-averse properties, has performed relatively well, such as tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds and on-chain bond funds, attracting risk-averse capital due to their linkage to real yields and low volatility. High Beta sectors, such as Layer 2 ecosystems and public chain tokens, have been more significantly impacted, but activity levels continue to grow. Solana (SOL) has performed well, with its price correction being less than the broader market, increased trading volume, and some funds showing net subscriptions, reflecting institutional and investor recognition of its network improvements and high-performance public chain value.

Matrixport Structured Product Strategy Recommendations

In a high-volatility, directionally uncertain market environment, investors are advised to flexibly use structured products to balance risk and return:

• Accumulator phased buying products: Suitable for investors who anticipate market consolidation and wish to gradually increase their positions.

• Long/short range yield note products (FCN): Suitable for obtaining stable yield income during range-bound markets and declining volatility.

• Decumulator phased selling products: Suitable for investors concerned about future market conditions and wishing to gradually reduce positions on highs.

• Daily dual-currency investment products: Short-term (1 day to 1 week), can lock in short-term returns and seek additional gains.

In the face of macro uncertainty, high volatility, and sector divergence, investors should maintain patience and discipline. On one hand, they should pay attention to policy and market risk events, controlling positions and leverage; on the other hand, they can combine their own risk preferences to optimize entry and exit strategies using diverse structured products. With professional allocation and risk management support, investors are expected to actively seize opportunities in a volatile market, laying the foundation for the next phase of market trends.

The above content is from Daniel Yu, Head of Asset Management, and represents the author's personal views only.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment should be approached with caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.