Cryptocurrency Market Performance

Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.89 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.3%, valued at $1.68 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $302.8 billion, which has decreased by 0.68% over the past week. Notably, the number of stablecoins has seen negative growth for four consecutive weeks, with USDT accounting for 60.93%.

Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have declined while a few have risen. Specifically: CC 7 has dropped by 32.32%, IP has decreased by 29.88% over the past week, ICP has fallen by 29.03%, BTC has decreased by 13.15%, and ETH has dropped by 14.13%. The cryptocurrency world has seen significant losses, making it quite grim.

This week, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $1.211 billion; the net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $500 million.

Market Predictions (November 24 - November 28):

Currently, the RSI index is at 34.42 (weak zone), the Fear and Greed Index is at 15 (higher than last week, indicating extreme fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is at 43 (neutral, higher than last week).

BTC core range: $85,000 - $89,000

ETH core range: $2,800 - $3,100

SOL core range: $128 - $156

Market Sentiment: The market is currently very fragile, experiencing a relentless decline. Any market news, especially with a negative tone, can severely impact the market, potentially pushing it to lower levels. This indicates that the market is fleeing due to the "four-year cycle" theory and increasing uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy/government, opting for a "capital preservation" strategy. The recent market decline has primarily been driven by: U.S. employment data exceeding expectations, reduced likelihood of a rate cut in December, BlackRock's sell-off, and continued liquidity drain from AI growth. In the short term, a "moderate decline" is highly probable, with the current BTC price reaching the shutdown price for some miners, and the cost price for Strategy being $74,080. Whether the market can stop falling and whether we can see a "Christmas boom" again will depend on the U.S. economic data released after the holidays, the potential rate cut in December, and news of large institutions re-entering the market.

For conservative investors: The current price offers better value for long-term allocation. Consider making small, incremental purchases near key support levels to lower the average cost. This is not the market bottom, so there is no need to rush into heavy positions.

For active traders: Within the current defined range, consider light long positions near support levels and reducing or shorting near resistance levels. Be sure to set stop-loss orders.

Understanding Now

Weekly Major Events Review

1. On November 18, mainstream crypto treasury (DAT) company mNAV fell below 1, among which:

Strategy (MSTR) has an mNAV (the ratio of enterprise value to the value of held BTC) currently at 0.937. Strategy's market cap has dropped to $56 billion, currently holding 649,870 BTC, valued at $59.9 billion.

Metaplanet's mNAV is currently at 0.912. Metaplanet's market cap has dropped to $2.61 billion, currently holding 30,823 BTC, valued at $284 million.

Bitmine (BMNR) ranks first in Ethereum institutional holdings, currently holding approximately 3.51 million ETH, valued at approximately $10.63 billion, with its market cap dropping to $8.81 billion, mNAV currently at 0.83.

SharpLink (SBET) ranks second in Ethereum institutional holdings, currently holding 860,000 ETH, valued at approximately $2.61 billion, with its market cap dropping to $2.02 billion, mNAV currently at 0.84.

2. On November 18, the open-source AI platform Sentient announced that short-selling qualification registration is now online. The deadline is November 29. Additionally, details of the second-quarter airdrop event will be announced soon.

3. On November 19, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Labor stated that the department plans to complete the missing weekly initial unemployment claims data from the government shutdown by Thursday local time.

4. On November 20, NVIDIA (NVDA.O) announced Q3 revenue for fiscal year 2026 of $57 billion, up from $35.082 billion in the same period last year, exceeding market expectations of $54.923 billion. It also projected Q4 revenue for fiscal year 2026 to be $65 billion, with market expectations at $61.6 billion. The growth rate of chip sales, central to the AI boom, exceeded Wall Street's expectations, and the strong revenue forecast for the current quarter led investors to believe that the AI investment frenzy will continue. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang stated, "I do not see an AI bubble." The market rebounded after NVIDIA's earnings report, with Bitcoin rising to $91,500 and Ethereum climbing to $3,000, while NVIDIA's stock rose over 5% in after-hours trading, and Nasdaq futures opened up 1% on Thursday.

5. On November 20, the Monad (MON) token public sale on the Coinbase platform raised $147.1 million, achieving 78.4% of its total target. This public sale offered 7.5% of MON tokens at a price of $0.025 USDC, with an FDV of $2.5 billion, ending on Sunday, November 23, at 10:00. According to data from the Polymarket website, the probability of the Monad public sale reaching a total of $300 million is currently reported at 84%, reaching $400 million at 56%, while the probability of reaching $600 million is only 27%.

Macroeconomics

1. On November 20, the number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. for the week ending November 15 was 220,000, below the expected 230,000;

2. On November 20, the U.S. unemployment rate for September was 4.4%, above the expected 4.30%, and the previous value was 4.30%;

3. On November 20, the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for September were 119,000, above the expected 50,000, with the previous value revised from 22,000 to -4,000;

4. On November 21, according to the Federal Reserve's rate observer, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is 28.5%.

ETF

According to statistics, from November 17 to November 21, the net outflow from U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs was $1.217 billion; as of November 21, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $24.987 billion, currently holding $14.105 billion, while IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $66.239 billion. The total market capitalization of U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs is $112.02 billion.

The net outflow from U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs was $500 million.

Foreseeing the Future

Upcoming Events

1. Bitcoin MENA will be held from December 8 to 9 at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC);

2. Solana Breakpoint 2025 will take place from December 11 to 13 in Abu Dhabi.

Project Progress

1. The Makinafi token MAK will have its ICO on November 25 at Legion;

2. The TGE date for the Meme Launchpad Bitdealernet token BIT is November 27;

3. U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis stated at the SALT conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, that the final draft of cryptocurrency market structure legislation is expected to be submitted to President Trump before Thanksgiving (November 27).

Important Events

1. The EU will ban trading of the stablecoin A7A5 related to Russia starting November 25;

2. On November 26 at 21:30, the U.S. will announce the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending November 22 (in ten thousand);

3. On November 26 at 23:00, the U.S. will announce the year-on-year core PCE price index for October.

About Us

Hotcoin Research, as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-depth Reports"; leveraging our exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (AI + expert dual screening), we help you identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also interact with you through live broadcasts to interpret hot topics and predict trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.

Risk Warning

The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors conduct their investments based on a thorough understanding of these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of their funds.