Matrixport Research: The Strengthening of Bitcoin in the Short Term - Seasonal Effects and Changes in Position Structure

The current Bitcoin price is in a rare multi-signal divergence range: implied volatility and panic sentiment are rapidly retreating, and macro interest rate cut expectations are rising, providing short-term support for the market; however, the price remains below key resistance zones, and the trend structure has not shown a clear reversal. On-chain, the "True Market Mean Price" is becoming the core benchmark for judging support and resistance, with market sentiment highly sensitive to this price level. Although this round of rebound shows phase improvement, from the perspective of driving forces and trend direction, it still belongs to a tactical repair market rather than a clear signal for the restart of a bull market.

The window from Thanksgiving to Christmas opens, with short-term sentiment and macro factors forming support conditions

Market indicators show that Bitcoin experienced significant panic as it approached the key area of $81,300, with options skew sharply turning bearish and implied volatility soaring to 100%. This price is the "True Market Mean Price," corresponding to the average cost of active investors. Once it falls below this level, it will lead to a large number of active positions entering the loss zone, causing extreme volatility in sentiment in this area.

After the panic peaked, the market immediately showed structural easing: Federal Reserve officials reiterated that the option for a rate cut in December exists, causing the probability of a rate cut to rise rapidly from about 30% to 80%, with risk assets simultaneously halting their decline. Bitcoin formed a bullish hammer candlestick on the daily level that day, indicating that selling pressure was completely absorbed, and short-term trend models also showed signs of an upward reversal.

More statistically significant is that the window from Thanksgiving to Christmas has averaged a return of 11.5% over the past 15 years, with 9 years recording an increase. In the short term, sentiment repair, improvements in derivatives structure, and historical seasonal returns collectively bring a phase of rising probability for Bitcoin.

The source of the rebound remains passive, with position adjustments rather than new capital leading

Although reversal signals have appeared, the momentum of the rebound mainly comes from position clearing in the derivatives space. Leveraged shorts were forced to close their positions as prices rose, and the excessive demand for put protection in the options market dissipated, causing implied volatility to quickly retreat and accelerating the adjustment of derivative positions.

However, Bitcoin is still in a wide downward channel, and the price has not yet returned to the key resistance of $92,000, with trend indicators not showing structural bullishness. Historical experience indicates that when Bitcoin's trading price is below its 21-week moving average, investors should adopt defensive strategies rather than prematurely assume a trend reversal.

At the same time, although the selling pressure from ETFs has temporarily eased due to rate cut expectations, there are still no signs of sustained net inflows, nor have we seen large-scale buying from new capital. Overall, the current rise lacks the "incremental capital" needed for a trending market, resembling more of a technical repair of previously overly pessimistic sentiment.

Overall, Bitcoin is currently in a phase of "short-term strength, structural weakness." This round of rebound has threefold support from seasonality, sentiment reversal, and macro expectations, but its essence is still closer to a tactical repair market rather than a restart of a structural bull market. In our baseline scenario, this strengthening is likely to continue until around the December 10th FOMC meeting. While rate cut expectations provide temporary tailwinds, the forward guidance from the meeting may still bring new shocks. Investors need to be cautious of misjudging tactical rebounds as trend reversals. Until the price breaks through key resistance and the trend structure strengthens, the strategy should remain cautiously optimistic.

The above views are derived from Matrix on Target. Contact us for the complete report of Matrix on Target.

Disclaimer: The market carries risks, and investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading in digital assets may involve significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided in this content.