Morning News | Ethereum Foundation plans to implement 128-bit security standard next year; CoinJar announces expansion plans for the U.S. market; Vitalik states that prediction markets are the "antidote" to social media
Overview of Important Market Events on December 21整理：ChainCatcher
Important News:
- Tom Lee Responds to Contradiction with Fundstrat's Outlook: Short-Term Defense and Long-Term Bullishness Can Coexist
- Federal Reserve's Hamrick: November Inflation Data May Be Distorted, Neutral Rate Could Be Higher
- Vitalik: Prediction Markets Are the "Antidote" to Social Media, Providing More Rational and Responsible Public Opinion Aggregation
- Ethereum Foundation: Focus on Ecological Development Shifts to Security, Plans to Implement 128-Bit Security Standard Next Year
- Michael Saylor Releases Bitcoin Tracker Information Again, Possibly Indicating Further BTC Accumulation
- Australian Local Cryptocurrency Exchange CoinJar Announces U.S. Expansion Plans
What Important Events Happened in the Last 24 Hours?
Australian Local Cryptocurrency Exchange CoinJar Announces U.S. Expansion Plans
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by CrowdfundInsider, Australian local cryptocurrency exchange CoinJar has announced its entry into the U.S. market. Previously, the company has operated in Australia, the UK, and Ireland, and this move means CoinJar will operate within the U.S. federal and state regulatory framework.
As part of its U.S. expansion plan, CoinJar will launch CoinJar AI, an assistant directly integrated into its cryptocurrency trading platform that can "help users inquire about portfolio information and market dynamics."
Reportedly, CoinJar is one of the few exchanges that "has integrated AI-powered portfolio and market tools into its platform to enter the U.S. market." In addition to operating in Australia, CoinJar has also obtained licenses in Ireland and the UK, with investors including DCG, Boost VC, and Blackbird Ventures.
According to ChainCatcher, Strategy founder Michael Saylor has released information related to the Bitcoin Tracker again.
Based on previous patterns, Strategy always discloses Bitcoin accumulation information the day after relevant news is released.
Hassett: Trump Seeks Data-Dependent Candidates for Federal Reserve Chair
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Jinshi, White House National Economic Council Director Hassett stated that the current three-month average of core inflation is 1.6%; Trump is seeking data-dependent candidates for the Federal Reserve chair.
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by CryptoSlate, the Ethereum Foundation recently made it clear to developers that it will shift the focus of ecological development from "pursuing speed" to "ensuring security," with plans to fully implement the 128-bit security standard by 2026.
The foundation believes that zkEVM has made significant progress in performance over the past year, but some solutions rely on unverified mathematical assumptions, theoretically posing a risk of on-chain state being falsified. Therefore, the next phase's more important work is to strengthen formal verification, attack resistance, and foundational cryptographic security.
According to the foundation's plan, it will provide security review and assessment tools in the future, requiring zkEVM to achieve a minimum of 128-bit security strength before 2026, which is the level recognized by mainstream cryptography. The new standard may slow down the progress of some scaling projects, but the foundation emphasizes that, in the long run, attack resistance and credibility are essential prerequisites for attracting institutions and high-value applications. First, ensure security, then discuss performance improvements.
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Caijing magazine, Zhao Zhongxiu, president of the China University of Foreign Trade and Economics, and others wrote an article titled "Global Stablecoin Regulation Taking Shape, Can Pilot 'Chinese Plan' in Free Trade Zones," stating that with stablecoin legislation becoming a reality in several major jurisdictions globally, China should not miss this historic opportunity.
To prudently carry out stablecoin-related business and regulation in mainland China, it is suggested to open pilot projects in free trade experimental zones (referred to as "free trade zones"), such as the Qianhai Free Trade Zone in Shenzhen adjacent to Hong Kong and the Hainan Free Trade Port. Specific suggestions for pilot projects in free trade zones include: establishing a "cross-border fintech laboratory," creating a stablecoin "white list" system, establishing offshore RMB stablecoin innovation pilots, promoting digital trade and intellectual property financing, and strengthening blockchain infrastructure construction; meanwhile, strict risk prevention and control mechanisms should be established, including: stringent institutional and individual access, transparent reserve audits, tracking and preventing compliance arbitrage and capital flow risks.
According to ChainCatcher, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin stated in a post on Farcaster that prediction markets are a remedy for the crazy opinions on emotional topics and used two screenshots as examples: Musk previously posted that a civil war in the UK is "inevitable," while the prediction market Polymarket shows only a 3% probability for "Will there be a civil war in the UK in 2024?" (Vitalik believes 3% is still too high, as some bettors raised the probability).
Vitalik stated that many users on social media exaggerate claims that "something will definitely happen" to create panic or attract attention without taking responsibility; whereas prediction markets involve real monetary bets, which are more likely to reflect true probabilities and can counter these "crazy opinions."
Vitalik then elaborated on his overall view of prediction markets: compared to social media (where creating panic comes without accountability) and mainstream media (which often sensationalizes), prediction markets have a stronger incentive for "truth-seeking." Telling the truth can yield real rewards, while lying incurs significant economic penalties. After discovering exaggerated news, checking Polymarket reveals very low probabilities, which can help calm people down and conversely avoid false hopes. Prediction markets are the "antidote" to social media, providing a more rational and responsible way to aggregate public opinion.
According to ChainCatcher, regarding the contradiction between Tom Lee and his fund Fundstrat's analysts on Bitcoin's outlook (Tom Lee is very bullish, while Fundstrat is bearish), Fundstrat client Cassian posted that the interpretation of this debate is unfair and misleading. Tom Lee retweeted and replied, "Well said."
Cassian stated that this interpretation is taken out of context, and the actual situation is a division of labor and collaboration under different teams, cycles, and responsibilities.
Cassian noted that the three core figures at Fundstrat have clear divisions of labor: Tom Lee is responsible for macro and liquidity frameworks and is the most vocal, maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on crypto assets; Sean Farrell, as the head of digital asset strategy, is responsible for specific crypto portfolios and position adjustments. Assuming BTC retraces to $60,000-$65,000, he will convert about 50% of the portfolio to cash/stablecoins as a risk control measure rather than a long-term bearish stance; Mark Newton, from a technical perspective, believes that the October retracement has disrupted the original upward trend, expecting a rebound followed by a period of consolidation, with potential for further gains by the end of the year. The three have a high degree of consensus on macro risks: the overall environment in the first half of 2026 will be very unstable, with differences in that Sean is responsible for short-term defense, Mark looks at technical structure repair, and Tom maintains a structural bullish stance from a longer cycle and liquidity perspective.
Cassian stated that he personally holds a large amount of BitMine stock and would not sell even if the price retraces by 70%, as the risk of "missing out on a big rise" outweighs the benefits of "trying to catch the bottom." He emphasized that understanding who is speaking, their responsibilities, and the time frame is crucial. Once these pieces are put together, the notion that "Fundstrat contradicts itself" falls apart.
According to ChainCatcher, Fundstrat's cryptocurrency strategy head Sean Farrell posted on X platform in response to the "disagreement between his market views and Tom Lee's" stating that the previously cautious outlook in the first half of the year reflected risk management rather than a complete bearish stance. The current market pricing is nearly perfect, but risks still exist, including government shutdowns, trade volatility, uncertainties in AI capital expenditures, and changes in Federal Reserve leadership, along with tightening high-yield bond spreads and low cross-asset volatility.
Recent capital flows have also shown divergence. Bitcoin is currently in a "no man's land" in terms of valuation. In the long run, as large brokerages join, ETF demand should improve, but in the short term, it still faces pressures from original holders selling, miner stress, MSCI potentially removing MSTR, and fund redemptions. Fundstrat has multiple analysts, each with independent research frameworks and different investment time horizons, aimed at meeting various clients' investment goals.
My research mainly targets portfolios with a high proportion of crypto assets and adopts a relatively more aggressive market operation strategy. Tom Lee's research primarily serves large asset management institutions and investors allocating 1%-5% of their assets to BTC and ETH. Such strategies require a high degree of discipline and a long-term perspective to grasp structural (long-term) trends to achieve excess returns over time.
My goal is to help clients and subscribers with a high allocation of crypto assets (around 20% or more) to continuously outperform the market through active rebalancing across different cycles. The current benchmark judgment is that there may be a rebound at the beginning of the year, followed by another potential retracement in the first half, providing more attractive opportunities for year-end positioning. If I judge incorrectly, I prefer to wait for confirmation signals.
For investors focused on this outlook, I still expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to challenge new historical highs before the end of the year, thus ending the traditional four-year cycle with a shorter and smaller bear market.
Federal Reserve's Hamrick: November Inflation Data May Be Distorted, Neutral Rate Could Be Higher
According to ChainCatcher, as reported by Jinshi, Federal Reserve's Hamrick stated that the November inflation data is positive but may be distorted due to government shutdown affecting data collection, underestimating price growth over the past 12 months. Although the Labor Statistics Bureau reported a 2.7% year-on-year increase in November CPI, the adjusted estimate is close to 2.9% or 3%. Hamrick believes that the neutral interest rate level may be higher than generally expected, and the economy is expected to maintain robust growth next year.
F2Pool Co-Founder Wang Chun Lost 490 Bitcoins After Transferring 500 Bitcoins to a Suspicious Address to Test Private Key Security
According to ChainCatcher, regarding the community's heated discussion about the 50 million USDT phishing attack, F2Pool co-founder Wang Chun (@satofishi) tweeted, "Last year, I suspected my private key was leaked. To confirm whether the address was really hacked, I transferred 500 bitcoins to that address. To my surprise, the hacker 'generously' only took 490 bitcoins, leaving me with 10 bitcoins, enough for my livelihood."
Slow Mist CISO: Beware of Malicious Code Hidden in Certain Polymarket Copy Trading Bot Programs That Steal Private Keys
According to ChainCatcher, Slow Mist Technology's Chief Information Security Officer 23pds retweeted a community user's tweet showing that a developer of a certain Polymarket copy trading bot program hid malicious code in the GitHub code. When the program is launched, it automatically reads the user's ".env" file (which contains wallet private keys) and sends the private keys to the hacker's server, resulting in stolen funds. The program's author repeatedly modified and submitted code on GitHub, deliberately hiding the malicious package.
23pds stated that this method should be taken seriously, "This is not the first time, and it won't be the last."
According to ChainCatcher, Science and Technology Daily published an article titled "Digital RMB Application Accelerates, These Fraud Traps Need to Be Watched," revealing that Liu Xiaochun, director of the Shanghai Financial Digitalization Research Center, disclosed that criminals are spreading information about purchasing digital RMB wallets through instant messaging tools and other channels, luring victims with hefty returns, and then using the acquired digital RMB wallets to commit telecom fraud, money laundering, and other illegal activities. Some criminals also design fake activity pages to extract personal information and steal funds.
Dong Ximiao, deputy director of the Shanghai Financial and Development Laboratory, pointed out that preventing digital RMB fraud hinges on recognizing its ordinary nature as legal tender, eliminating all notions of quick profits, and protecting wallet passwords and verification codes as one would protect physical cash.
Meme Popularity Rankings
According to the meme token tracking and analysis platform GMGN, as of December 22, 09:00,
The top five popular tokens on ETH in the past 24 hours are: SHIB, LINK, PEPE, UNI, ONDO
The top five popular tokens on Solana in the past 24 hours are: TRUMP, PENGU, Fartcoin, FO, ME
The top five popular tokens on Base in the past 24 hours are: PEPE, MINKY, BASED, NATO, SKYA
What Are Some Must-Read Articles from the Last 24 Hours?
A Brief History of Blockchain Wallets and the 2025 Market Landscape
How to evaluate the year 2025, and how to view the future? The author believes that this year is a year of silence for wallets, as well as a year of transformation. It hasn't made much noise, but it has been quietly doing significant things. In today's multi-chain environment, simply creating a useful tool is no longer sufficient to sustain a large-scale wallet team (and the accompanying foundational setup); it inevitably requires various value-added services to provide oxygen. Coincidentally, this year is also a year of application explosion, with the perps track breaking out and reborn, RWA (stock direction), prediction markets, and payments all showing simultaneous improvement.
Why Do DeFi Users Reject Fixed Rates?
The failure of fixed-rate lending in the crypto space is not solely because DeFi users reject it. Another reason for its failure is that DeFi protocols adopted money market assumptions when designing credit products and then deployed them in a liquidity-oriented ecosystem; the mismatch between user assumptions and actual capital behavior has kept fixed-rate lending in a niche market.
Risk warning
Risk warning
