Bitget UEX Daily Report | US-Iran conflict escalates, oil prices soar; pressure on private credit redemptions intensifies; Tesla approved for indirect stake in SpaceX (March 13, 2026)

# Hot News

Federal Reserve Dynamics

Fed officials expect interest rates to remain unchanged for a while

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated that given inflation remains high and the labor market is softening, monetary policy is currently in a neutral stance and does not require immediate adjustment.

• Inflation pressures persist, and employment indicators show signs of slowing.
• After last year's rate cuts, policy has been balanced and is expected to remain stable for a longer period under the baseline scenario.
• There are two-way risks, and data evolution needs to be monitored. This statement reinforces the market consensus that the March meeting will likely result in no changes, which may suppress bond yield fluctuations, support the dollar, and constrain risk appetite in the stock market.

International Commodities

US-Israel conflict impacts global supply chains

The US-Israel attacks on Iran have led to increased energy and fertilizer transportation costs in the Strait of Hormuz.

• A UN report indicates rising shipping costs, impacting the fertilizer supply chain.
• US farmers may need to adjust planting structures to cope with supply disruptions. This event amplifies inflation concerns, driving strength in energy stocks and agricultural input sectors.

Iran allows some vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister stated that non-aggressive nations' vessels are allowed to pass, but aggressive nations have no safety rights.

• No mines have been laid in the strait, easing some market tensions.
• Brent crude oil still broke through $100 per barrel, reaching a new high since August 2022. This helps stabilize shipping in the short term, but geopolitical risks remain high, affecting oil prices.

Macroeconomic Policy

US plans to exempt the Jones Act to address rising fuel prices

The Trump administration is considering a 30-day exemption to ensure energy and agricultural product transportation.

• This is in response to supply disruptions and price surges caused by the situation in Iran.
• An announcement may be made on March 13. This policy aims to alleviate the domestic energy crisis and may support the performance of related industry stocks.

US allows some Russian oil sales

The Treasury Department issued licenses allowing the sale of loaded Russian oil before April 11.

• The effective date is from March 12.
• This is in the context of global energy supply tightening. It helps alleviate oil price pressures, but the impact from the Iran situation is limited.

# Market Review

Commodity & Forex Performance

• Spot Gold: $5,108.39 per ounce, up 0.54%, experiencing a pullback for two consecutive days due to inflation concerns and a stronger dollar.
• Spot Silver: $84.96 per ounce, up 1.38%, fluctuating with gold prices, with weak industrial demand exacerbating the decline.
• WTI Crude Oil: $95.15 per barrel, down 0.61%, slightly retreating after previous gains driven by geopolitical tensions.
• Brent Crude Oil: $99.93 per barrel, down 0.67%, pulling back after breaking through $100, with supply disruption concerns as the dominant factor.
• Dollar Index: 99.65, slightly down 0.09%, trending stronger, benefiting from risk aversion and escalating US-Iran conflict.

Analyst Dara Doyle noted that the market interprets the remarks of the new Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei as quite hardline, with almost no signs indicating that Iran is prepared to make concessions to the US and Israel. In his first public statement after taking office, he stated that the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed and threatened to open new fronts in the war. This has heightened market concerns about the continued disruption of supplies through this critical global oil chokepoint, leading to significant increases in US bond yields and oil prices, while the stock market declined, and the dollar index reached a new daily high.

Cryptocurrency Performance

• BTC: $71,417.13, up 1.68% in 24H, continuing the rebound trend driven by ETF inflows and improved market sentiment.
• ETH: $2,122.23, up 3.42% in 24H, strengthening alongside BTC, with network upgrade expectations providing support.
• Total Cryptocurrency Market Cap: $2.52 trillion, up 2.2% in 24H, remaining stable amidst volatility, balancing geopolitical risks and ETF inflows.
• Liquidation Situation: Total liquidation amount in 24H is $256 million, with long positions liquidated at $86 million and short positions at $170 million.

• Bitget BTC/USDT Liquidation Map: Current price is $71,396, with a significant concentration of long liquidations in the $68,500–$70,500 range. If BTC falls back to this range, it may trigger a chain reaction of long liquidations and increase downward pressure. Above approximately $71,400, short liquidations begin to accumulate, with further concentration around $73,000. If prices continue to rise, it may trigger a round of short squeezes.
• Spot ETF Inflows/Outflows: BTC spot ETF saw a net inflow of $7.7 million yesterday, marking four consecutive days of net inflows; ETH spot ETF saw a net inflow of $53.7 million yesterday, marking three consecutive days of net inflows.
• BTC Spot Inflows/Outflows: BTC saw inflows of $2.358 billion yesterday, outflows of $2.438 billion, resulting in a net inflow of $79.5 million.

US Stock Index Performance

• Dow Jones: 46,677.85, down 1.56% (-739.42 points), falling for three consecutive days, dragged down by geopolitical risks and rising oil prices.
• S&P 500: 6,672.58, down 1.52% (-103.18 points), with tech stocks broadly declining, exacerbating the index's downturn.
• Nasdaq: 22,311.98, down 1.78% (-404.16 points), led by declines in tech giants, influenced by inflation concerns and private credit redemption pressures.

Tech Giants Dynamics

• NVIDIA: down 1.55%, closing at $183.14, with strong AI demand but overall market sell-off dominating.
• Amazon: down 1.47%, closing at $212.65, with strong bond issuance but inflation risks suppressing.
• Tesla: down 3.14%, closing at $395.01, with favorable SpaceX equity conversion but dragged down by the overall market.
• Meta: down 2.55%, closing at $638.18, with data center expansion failing to offset risk aversion.
• Apple: down 1.94%, closing at $255.76, with weak product cycles and increased market volatility.
• Microsoft: down 0.75%, closing at $401.86, relatively resilient but showing pressure from AI spending.
• Google: down 1.67%, closing at $303.55, with AI functionality advancements but dominated by low sentiment.

The overall decline is primarily due to the US-Iran tensions driving up oil prices, amplifying inflation concerns and triggering a wave of private credit redemptions, with risk aversion dominating the tech sector.

Sector Movement Observation

Agricultural Inputs Sector Up 6.5%

• Representative stocks: CF Industries Holdings, up 13.21%; Origin Agritech, up 12.5%.
• Driving factors: The US-Israel conflict impacts the global fertilizer supply chain, rising transportation costs stimulate demand, and farmers adjust planting structures, benefiting fertilizer and seed stocks.

# In-Depth Stock Analysis

1. Adobe - Q1 earnings exceed expectations but guidance is tepid and CEO resigns

Event Overview: Adobe's Q1 revenue reached $6.40 billion, a 12% year-on-year increase, with adjusted EPS of $6.06, exceeding expectations of $5.86. The annual recurring revenue from AI-prioritized products doubled. The company is undergoing two major transformations: transitioning from traditional software to cloud and integrating AI. Current CEO Shantanu Narayen, who has led for 18 years, will resign once a successor is determined. The Q2 revenue guidance is $5.25-$5.30 billion, slightly below analysts' expectations of $5.31 billion. In the background, Adobe is exploring pathways for AI commercialization, but leadership changes raise concerns about strategic continuity. The stock price fell over 7% in after-hours trading, reflecting investor caution regarding the uncertainty during the transition period. This event is related to the acceleration of AI applications, but the sustainability of growth is in question, with the cause being the 2025 AI product rollout and the potential impact on short-term innovation pace.

Market Interpretation: Goldman Sachs maintains a buy rating, emphasizing strong potential for AI transformation; Morgan Stanley lowers the target price, noting that CEO succession uncertainty may exacerbate short-term pressures; Wolfe Research lowers to $440 but maintains an outperform rating, focusing on the decline in traditional business; UBS holds a neutral stance, expressing concerns that guidance indicates slow AI monetization.

Investment Insight: AI-driven long-term growth is clear, but risks from management changes should be monitored. It is suitable for long-term investors to position during pullbacks and observe Q2 guidance execution.

2. Tesla - Approved to convert xAI investment into SpaceX equity

Event Overview: Tesla received FTC approval to convert approximately $2 billion of its xAI investment into less than 1% equity in SpaceX. This move occurs during SpaceX's IPO preparation, strengthening the synergy within Musk's ecosystem, including electric vehicles, AI, and space technology integration. The background is the planned merger of xAI with SpaceX in 2025, with a valuation of $1.25 trillion. Tesla's previous shareholder proposal to invest in xAI was not approved, but it was ultimately realized. The conversion formalizes financial ties, with the timing sensitive to SpaceX's potential $1.75 trillion IPO valuation record. The stock price fell 3.14%, dragged down by the overall market but highlighting diversification efforts. The cause includes the restructuring of Musk's empire, while the consequences may enhance Tesla's technological competitiveness but distract from the core automotive focus.

Market Interpretation: Barclays views this as enhancing the potential for space technology integration, benefiting Tesla's narrative; UBS warns that the equity conversion may dilute resources, putting short-term pressure; Wedbush believes inter-company synergy is bullish, expecting more xAI-SpaceX-Tesla interactions; Seeking Alpha analysts ponder the benefits and challenges of the merger, noting that growth opportunities outweigh risks.

Investment Insight: Diversification efforts benefit long-term ecological value, but geopolitical risks dominate the short term. It is advisable to monitor SpaceX IPO progress and assess impacts on the automotive business.

3. Amazon - Issues $54 billion in bonds with oversubscription

Event Overview: Amazon issued $37 billion in US bonds and €14.5 billion in euro bonds, setting a record for corporate bonds in the euro market, with subscriptions reaching $126 billion. The company is seen as a safe haven in turbulent markets, with funds allocated for AI data center and infrastructure expansion. The background includes plans to invest $20 billion in chips and equipment by 2026, exceeding expectations and raising concerns among equity investors about the return cycle. The issuance was completed amidst escalating oil price volatility due to the US-Iran conflict, highlighting strong credit. The stock price fell 1.47%, but it underscores financial flexibility. The cause includes a surge in AI capex, while the consequences may increase debt burden but support growth.

Market Interpretation: Citigroup praises the financing capability, supporting AI expansion; Deutsche Bank points out that the scale is too large and may compress profits in a high-interest-rate environment; Schroders emphasizes Amazon's ample cash but notes that AI demand is insatiable; Bloomberg analysts state that pricing is cheap due to oversupply, with investors questioning the necessity of the massive issuance.

Investment Insight: Financial stability is suitable for defensive positioning, but caution is warranted regarding increasing debt and interest rate risks. It is advisable to focus on AI investment returns.

4. Microsoft & Meta - New commitments for nearly $50 billion in data center leases

Event Overview: Microsoft and Meta each added approximately $50 billion in lease commitments, totaling over $700 billion to support AI development. Microsoft holds $155 billion in future commitments, while Meta has $104 billion. This reflects an explosion in AI computing demand, with the background being accelerated expansion following a server shortage in 2025, and Microsoft adding 1 gigawatt of capacity in Q4. The leases are mostly for 15-19 years, with some being cancellable. The stock prices fell 0.75% and 2.55%, respectively, influenced by tech stock sell-offs. The cause includes demand for AI model training, while the consequences may include potential cash flow pressure but ensure capacity leadership.

Market Interpretation: Goldman Sachs is optimistic about infrastructure investment returns, driving AI leadership; JPMorgan is concerned that excessive spending may compress short-term cash flow; Moody's highlights $662 billion off-balance risks, emphasizing accounting challenges; Bloomberg analysts note that this underscores an upgrade in AI bets, but supply bottlenecks may persist.

Investment Insight: The clear AI trend supports long-term growth, but spending efficiency and returns should be monitored. Mid- to long-term positioning is advisable.

5. Samsung & NVIDIA - Collaboration accelerates next-generation NAND flash memory development

Event Overview: Samsung and NVIDIA are collaborating to develop ferroelectric-based NAND flash memory, using physical information neural operator models, with analysis speeds 10,000 times faster than existing technologies. Research results have been published, with collaboration spanning from development to commercialization. The background is driven by AI chip demand pushing memory innovation, with Samsung being NVIDIA's largest memory customer, aiming to enhance ultra-low power storage performance. The timing coincides with growth in AI infrastructure, potentially impacting data center efficiency. The stock price reflects the overall decline in NVIDIA. The cause includes the ramp-up of HBM in 2025, while the consequences may tighten conventional memory supply, driving prices up.

Market Interpretation: The Seoul Economic Daily cites industry officials emphasizing that the alliance accelerates the transformation of AI memory architecture; Morgan Stanley recommends buying Samsung on pullbacks, viewing it as an opportunity in the complex AI memory ecosystem; Seeking Alpha analysts state that the collaboration benefits Samsung's HBM positioning but faces intense competition.

Investment Insight: Strengthening AI memory leadership is suitable for tech investors to focus on, but the impact of reduced production on prices should be assessed.

# Cryptocurrency Project Dynamics

1. Aptos (APT) completed the unlocking of 11.31 million tokens, accounting for approximately 0.69% of the circulating supply, with potential selling pressure to watch but network activity remains stable. WhiteBIT (WBT) had a large-scale token unlock on March 13, valued at approximately $4.18 billion, which may impact exchange liquidity and the ecosystem.

2. BlackRock's iShares Staked Ethereum Trust (ETHB) saw trading volume of $15.5 million on its first day. Nasdaq data shows that ETHB traded 592,804 shares on its first day, corresponding to a trading volume of about $15.5 million. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart still gives a positive evaluation, stating, "This is very, very solid for an ETF that launched on its first day."

3. The SEC's Investor Advisory Committee voted to support advancing tokenized securities regulatory policies, allowing stock trading to bypass the decades-old intermediary settlement model reliant on Wall Street investment firms.

4. On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant indicates that Ethereum is facing an "adoption paradox," where network activity is at an all-time high, yet ETH prices have significantly dropped. CryptoQuant's research director stated that if the bear market continues, ETH could further drop to around $1,500, a level that may be reached by the end of Q3 or early Q4 this year.

5. JPMorgan analysts noted a significant divergence in fund flows between Bitcoin and gold ETFs since the outbreak of the Iran war on February 27. The largest gold ETF, GLD, saw approximately 2.7% asset outflows, while the largest spot Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, recorded about 1.5% asset inflows. Since October of last year, especially among retail investors, there has been a rotation from Bitcoin to gold, but IBIT's cumulative inflow since 2024 is still about twice that of GLD.

6. ARK Invest and Unchained jointly released a white paper titled "Bitcoin and Quantum Computing," stating that current quantum computing is not yet a threat to Bitcoin security. Quantum risks will gradually manifest through a series of observable technological milestones rather than a sudden "Q day" collapse. The report indicates that approximately 65.4% of Bitcoin's supply (about 13 million coins) is in non-quantum vulnerable addresses, about 8.6% (approximately 1.7 million coins) is in early P2PK addresses considered lost and quantum vulnerable, and about 5.2 million coins are in reusable or P2TR addresses, totaling about 35% of the supply facing potential quantum attack surfaces.

# Today's Market Calendar

Data Release Schedule

Important Event Forecast

• March 13 (Friday)
  20:30, US January Core PCE Price Index year-on-year release, expected at 3.1%;
  Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to discuss the Middle East situation.

Institutional Views:

Goldman Sachs pointed out that the three major US stock indices fell over 1.5% due to the US-Iran conflict and rising oil prices, recommending increasing holdings in energy and agricultural stocks for hedging. JPMorgan emphasized that private credit redemptions amplify liquidity risks, with the Nasdaq under short-term pressure but optimistic about AI themes. In precious metals, UBS believes that gold's pullback is normal, suppressed by a strong dollar but supported by geopolitical tensions for mid-term increases. In the oil market, Citigroup predicts WTI will fluctuate around $95, with news from the Strait of Hormuz easing panic but Iranian statements adding uncertainty. In forex, Barclays is optimistic about the dollar stabilizing above 99.7, dominated by risk aversion. In the crypto space, Morgan Stanley stated that BTC's breakthrough at $70,000 was aided by $115 million in ETF inflows, with ETH rebounding but total market cap down 0.22% reflecting caution, and ZX Squared Capital warned of a deep bear market for BTC, potentially dropping another 30%.

Disclaimer: The above content is compiled by AI search, with human verification for publication, and should not be considered as any investment advice.