The Dallas Fed warns that tokenized deposits could reduce U.S. banks' lending capacity by $700 billion

According to CoinDesk, Dallas Federal Reserve economists Rosie Levy and Srini Ramaswamy estimate that if depositors' sensitivity to interest rates increases by 10%, tokenized deposits could reduce U.S. banks' ability to bear long-term interest rate risk by about $700 billion; if tokenization leads to a 10% early outflow of deposits, banks would lose about $580 billion in risk absorption capacity.

Tokenized deposits place commercial bank money on the blockchain, supporting programmable payments and real-time settlement, but smart contracts and AI agents could automate deposit transfers, weakening deposit stickiness. Banks can respond by raising deposit rates, increasing reserves and government bonds, or relying more on term debt, but this could drive up credit costs for consumers and businesses.

Research from Brazil's instant payment network Pix shows that more frequent use of the system increases banks' holdings of liquid assets like government bonds while reducing credit intermediation. Currently, tokenized deposits are still in the early stages, with clearinghouses and U.S. banks such as Bank of America, Citibank, and Wells Fargo developing interoperable networks that support interbank clearing, automated workflows, and 24/7 settlement.