Market News and Research Predictions

According to data from @defioasis, Polymarket has entered a full charging era, with fees significantly rising in the past two days. The latest complete daily fee on April 1 was $927,000, and it is expected that the daily fee may exceed one million dollars in the coming days. Based on the daily fee on April 1, the annualized amount reaches $338 million.

According to Cointelegraph, driven by geopolitical bets and mainstream media coverage, the trading volume of prediction markets in March increased by 2838% year-on-year, reaching 191 million transactions, setting a new historical high.

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order prohibiting government-appointed officials from using non-public information obtained during their duties to engage in insider trading for profit in prediction markets, and expanded the ban to include their spouses, family members, and former business partners. The executive order specifies that public officials appointed by the governor may not use "confidential or non-public information" to bet on political or economic events related to their duties. Newsom stated that public service should not become a tool for profit and emphasized the need to draw a clear line between power and interests.

Cathie Wood's investment firm ARK Invest stated that it will use data from the prediction market platform Kalshi to assist in investment decisions and for risk management and hedging strategies.ARK pointed out that it will integrate Kalshi data in three ways: first, to supplement fundamental and quantitative analysis by introducing continuously updated market expectations; second, to obtain real-time signals through indicators such as trading volume; third, for event-driven risk management, hedging key outcomes that affect the portfolio and macro and industry risks. Cathie Wood stated that introducing prediction markets into institutional investment processes is a natural extension of financial research innovation, and this type of data helps quantify uncertainty and provides more forward-looking references for investments in disruptive industries.

U.S. lawmakers have introduced the PREDICT Act, which aims to prohibit the President, members of Congress, and other senior government officials from participating in prediction market trading.The bill was jointly proposed by Adrian Smith and Nikki Budzinski and aims to restrict the use of insider information in prediction activities related to political events or policy outcomes, extending its scope to the spouses and family members of the relevant personnel. The bill also proposes a penalty of 10% of the total contract value for violations, with all profits being forfeited to the U.S. Treasury.