Market News and Research Predictions

The prediction market is becoming the focus of community discussions, but under the huge spotlight, several doubts and concerns are gradually emerging.

In terms of pricing mechanism, Melee rewards early accurate predictors through algorithms, ensuring that market prices reflect true belief valuations.

A batch of third-party ecosystems has emerged around Polymarket, including data/dashboards, social experiences, front-end/terminal, insurance, AI agents, and more.

Capital sees three actionable items: sustainable transactions, direct monetization of channels, and clear regulatory pathways.

As time goes by, market makers will become more familiar with prediction markets, just as has happened in the field of sports betting.

Predictive markets are becoming more than just speculation; they are evolving into infrastructure for options, insurance, and governance.

The prediction market is not about discovering the truth, but about monetizing information asymmetry.

The structural changes from AMM to CLOB, how liquidity is reorganized, and why a "price" begins to inversely affect public opinion, behavior, and even the events themselves.

Prediction markets are not stock markets; they are essentially a radar of human collective intelligence. To keep this radar accurate, it is necessary to allow for the friction costs brought about by information arbitrage to a certain extent.

These markets are generally neither reliable nor liquid.