2023

According to The Block, the price of Hyperliquid's HYPE token surpassed Solana on Wednesday, which has fallen to its lowest level since 2023. HYPE reached an all-time high of $74.67 on Tuesday and is currently trading at $74.47, higher than Solana's $71.62. Over the past month, HYPE has risen about 24%, making it one of the few assets among the top 20 cryptocurrencies to increase, while Solana has dropped nearly 14% during the same period.In terms of market capitalization, Solana still leads with about $42 billion compared to Hyperliquid's approximately $16 billion, but the gap is rapidly narrowing. CoinShares released a valuation report on Tuesday stating that HYPE is one of the few crypto assets where protocol activity almost directly translates into token demand, with a target price of about $147 by 2031 under the baseline scenario.

According to a report by the Financial Associated Press, in response to the issue of "some banks in the Hong Kong region requiring a declaration to open investment accounts," the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) responded today that the relevant regulatory requirements were issued to all recognized institutions on May 22.Materials provided by the HKMA indicate that registered institutions must take three additional measures when opening and managing investment accounts for mainland investors, including:Closing investment accounts opened using suspicious or forged documents, identifying customer investment accounts that have used suspicious or forged documents since January 2023 or during any other period specified by the HKMA; relevant documents include identification documents.Closing investment accounts with zero balance that have been inactive, specifically referring to investment accounts held by mainland investors that have had no asset balance as of May 22, 2026 (reference date), and have had no activity initiated by the customer in the 12 months prior to the reference date.When opening new investment accounts, obtaining a written declaration from the mainland investor confirming that all funds used to support investment activities and related settlements come from legal sources outside mainland China.Relevant documents show that the newly added additional regulatory measures apply only to investment accounts, including investment accounts within comprehensive bank accounts; non-investment functions (such as regular savings, time deposits, payments, loans, and credit cards) are not within the scope of these measures. Additionally, the applicable subjects of these additional measures are individual customers and do not apply to corporate or institutional clients.

Santiment released a weekly market summary stating that Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows on 9 out of the past 10 trading days, with the current Bitcoin price around $77,500; it views this phenomenon as a reflection of weakening retail confidence.Meanwhile, Ethereum market sentiment has dropped to its lowest level since 2023, but the number of non-zero addresses has reached 192.92 million, which is more than three times Bitcoin's approximately 59 million. Santiment also pointed out that the current ratio of bullish to bearish comments on Bitcoin has risen to 2.23, the highest level within 2026, and historically, such high sentiment often appears before short-term corrections.

The Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator from CryptoQuant has recently turned green for the first time since 2023. On-chain analyst Julio Moreno stated that this usually indicates the market is switching from a bear market structure to a recovery phase. Moreno pointed out that historically, when this indicator exits the bear market zone and enters the "Early Bull" range, it often means that the worst adjustment phase has ended and the market structure begins to repair. However, several analysts emphasize that this indicator is more suitable for judging market phase transitions rather than precise trading signals. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, stated that the greatest significance of such indicators lies in determining "whether Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear market asset," and real confirmation still requires sustained demand, improved liquidity, and prices stabilizing at key levels. Currently, Bitcoin has not effectively broken through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded about 35% from a low of around $60,000 in February this year, the market remains in a tug-of-war state. Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull market signal, Bitcoin needs to digest some current "weakness" indicators while facing pressure from a neutral greed-fear index and a complex macro environment. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and CIO of Maelstrom, believes that Bitcoin has completed a phase of bottoming around $60,000 this year. He stated that once it breaks through $90,000, the market may enter an "explosive phase," targeting the previous high of $126,000. Meanwhile, some analysts also remind that on-chain indicators like MVRV and NUPL are essentially more aligned with a "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be seen as absolute predictive tools.

According to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV, the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator has turned into an "early bull market" signal for the first time since March 2023. Historically, this signal has appeared after 2019 and early 2023, indicating that the worst adjustment phase has passed and the market structure is beginning to recover. However, there was one exception in March 2022 when the indicator also entered the early bull market zone, but the price was subsequently rejected, confirming a local top rather than a new bull market.Regarding the current signal for May 2026, the analyst believes that Bitcoin is no longer behaving as a deeply bearish asset, and the recovery of the 30-day moving average indicates that market momentum is improving. However, several other market indicators have shown signs of fatigue, making this signal less clear than a classic early cycle confirmation. The analyst tends to believe that this is more likely a local top rather than the beginning of a new bull market, unless the price strongly confirms this trend in the future.

According to Gate market data, the offshore RMB against the US dollar has broken through the 6.8 mark, marking the first breakthrough since February 2023.

Cryptoonchain posted on social media that the Bitcoin inflow CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) on the Binance trading platform has reached its highest level since the beginning of 2023. Bitcoin, which has been dormant for a long time, is starting to move, indicating that long-term holders and whales are taking profits in the $78,000--$80,000 range.The surge in Coin Days Destroyed means that earlier Bitcoins are flowing into trading platforms, indicating increased selling pressure. Historically, this behavior often signals the arrival of short-term volatility or local tops. The inflow peak in April has already shown early distribution signals across the market, and if buying demand cannot absorb this supply, Bitcoin may face a strong supply resistance wall.

According to on-chain data platform Glassnode (@glassnode), the Bitcoin spot trading volume on major exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since October 2023, comparable to the level at the end of the previous bear market in September 2023. In a low trading volume environment, market depth has significantly decreased, and even minor capital flows can trigger liquidations, leading to a notable increase in the market's sensitivity to changes in liquidity.

Cryptoonchain has released data on social media indicating that the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Ethereum Taker buy-sell ratio on Binance has risen to 1.018, reaching its highest level since the beginning of 2023. A ratio above 1 indicates that the active buying volume significantly exceeds the active selling volume.This data highlights the aggressive demand in the derivatives market and the strong return of bullish sentiment. If this momentum continues, it will build a solid fundamental basis for mid-term price increases.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently priced at $74,700, down 0.4% in the last 24 hours. News of ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran has boosted risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 index reaching a record high on Thursday. Trump stated that the prospects for a permanent ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran "look very optimistic," claiming that Iran has agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions, hand over nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, although Iran has not yet confirmed these concessions.Meanwhile, the market is closely monitoring the structural signals behind Bitcoin's price movements. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria stated, "The funding rate is so negative that it indicates the market is heavily short. If Bitcoin continues to rise in this context, a large number of short positions may be forced to close, further accelerating the price upward." He predicts that if the short base is forced to cover, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 within the next 30 to 60 days.On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt provided another perspective: Bitcoin's "True Market Mean" (TMM) shows that the average cost basis of active holders is currently above the market price, indicating that holders are overall in a state of unrealized losses. Since 2016, consistently falling below this mean has often coincided with Bitcoin's most severe downturns, including the bear market from 2018 to 2019 (with a maximum drop of 57%, lasting 282 days) and the decline following the Luna and FTX collapses from 2022 to 2023 (with a maximum drop of 56%, lasting 339 days).Analysts point out that these two judgments are not mutually exclusive—the short squeeze triggered by the extremely negative funding rate and the structural pressure of overall unrealized losses among active holders can coexist. The former may trigger a significant rise, but ultimately could be absorbed by selling from the latter. The future market direction may depend on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire can be sustained after its expiration next week.

CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten stated that the Bitcoin funding rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, and historical patterns show that such signals often coincide with market bottoms. According to Glassnode data, the seven-day moving average of the funding rate has dropped to about -0.005%.The funding rate is the fee that long and short positions pay each other periodically in perpetual contracts to keep the contract price aligned with the spot market. When the rate is positive, longs pay shorts, reflecting bullish market sentiment; when the rate is negative, shorts pay longs, indicating a bearish market. Despite the funding rate being persistently negative from March to April this year, Bitcoin still oscillated upward from the $60,000 to $65,000 range to about $75,000. Historically, a deeply negative funding rate often coincides with Bitcoin's phase bottoms: during the market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, Bitcoin fell to about $3,000; it dropped to $30,000 during China's mining ban announcement in 2021; it hit a low of about $15,000 during the FTX collapse in November 2022; and it briefly fell below $20,000 during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023. During the yen arbitrage trade closure in August 2024 and the "Liberation Day" sell-off in April 2025, negative funding rates also appeared alongside phase lows. The continued negative funding rate indicates that even if the price trend is positive, short positions remain at a high level. This divergence may suggest that the market is climbing within a "wall of worry," and a large number of short positions could become fuel for further price increases.

According to Cryptoquant analyst Darkfost, there has been a significant market pattern shift in Ethereum derivatives, the first since the bear market of 2023. Darkfost pointed out that while the net trading volume of ETH has been negative for most of 2023, it has now turned positive. Currently, this metric shows that buying pressure is dominant, with a buying amount of $104 million.It is noteworthy that even when Ethereum's price was close to new highs previously, this metric indicated that selling pressure remained very strong, but now this situation seems to be changing.Darkfost believes that due to the positive buying pressure facing Ethereum, this could help form a stronger bottom. If this dynamic continues, and the spot market and ETFs begin to support this trend, Ethereum may potentially resume its upward trend.

According to crypto analyst Darkfost, the open contracts for ETH on the Binance platform have significantly decreased, with the position size dropping by about 400,000 ETH since January. At the same time, the spot to futures trading volume ratio for ETH on Binance has fallen to its lowest level since 2023, which is the year the bear market ended.Despite this, the current futures trading volume for Ethereum on Binance is still more than six times that of the spot trading volume. This reflects the true weakness of the Ethereum spot market at present, and the selling actions of the Ethereum Foundation and even Vitalik Buterin may have led to cautiousness among investors.

According to an analysis by The Kobeissi Letter, with U.S. oil prices currently close to $120 per barrel, their model indicates that if the current levels persist for 3 months, the U.S. CPI inflation rate will rise to about 3.7%.This would bring the U.S. inflation rate to its highest level since September 2023.

According to Jinshi News, the onshore RMB against the US dollar has broken through the 6.89 mark, reaching a high not seen since early May 2023.

Whale Alert founder Frank S posted, "The potential profit level of BTC has fallen back to the end of 2023 (with all holders totaling about $300 billion).If history repeats itself, the next few months may be challenging, as data shows that the 'sustained uninterrupted profit period' typically lasts about 3 years, and this round has also lasted exactly 3 years."

Cryptanalysis expert Maartunn posted on the X platform, stating that the BTC contract open interest has decreased by 55% from its historical peak, marking the largest drop since April 2023.

According to Coinglass data, the Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium for 33 consecutive days, currently reported at -0.0477%, setting the longest "consecutive negative" record since 2023, surpassing the approximately 30 days of consecutive negative premium during the "1011 crash."The Coinbase Bitcoin premium index is used to measure the difference between the Bitcoin price on Coinbase and the global market average price. A negative premium typically reflects significant selling pressure in the U.S. market, a decline in investor risk appetite, heightened market risk aversion, or capital outflows.

According to Gate market data, the offshore RMB against the US dollar has broken through the 6.9 mark, reaching a new high since April 2023, with a peak of 6.8953, an intraday increase of about 100 points.