Analysis: Bitcoin's implied volatility has dropped to its lowest point in 2023, and the market may be facing a decisive trend
ChainCatcher news, according to XWIN Research analysis, the implied volatility of Bitcoin has dropped to its lowest level since 2023. This low point occurred before Bitcoin surged 325% from $29,000 to $124,000 earlier in 2023. Now, the question arises whether the "calm before the storm" scenario will reappear.CryptoQuant's on-chain data supports this: first, the exchange reserves have decreased, with total balances nearing multi-year lows, indicating a reduction in Bitcoin available for immediate sale. Historically, this has often been a precursor to rising demand amid tightening supply.Second, the MVRV ratio is in a neutral range, with investors neither severely trapped nor enjoying excessive profits, leading to a lack of panic selling or profit-taking pressure, resulting in a strong "wait-and-see" sentiment. Third, the funding rates are balanced, with no excessive long or short positions, echoing the low volatility and indicating that the market is building energy.These three signals collectively paint a consistent picture: the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is decreasing, investors are holding their positions, and the derivatives market is calm. Although implied volatility suggests that we are currently in one of the most tranquil phases in years, historical experience indicates that such periods rarely last long.