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According to Fortune, the crypto-focused venture capital firm Variant has completed the fundraising of its new fund, Variant 4, totaling $222 million. The fund will invest in projects at their earliest stages, focusing on the theme of "autonomy" to integrate AI and crypto applications.Partner Jesse Walden stated that in the future, the label "crypto investor" will disappear, and crypto will become a universal "underlying pipeline" like internet infrastructure. The core is to provide users and businesses with greater autonomy and security through decentralized and contract security architecture, supporting the development of applications including DeFi platforms Uniswap and Morpho.

According to Fortune, the decentralized derivatives trading platform Variational announced the completion of a $50 million Series A funding round, led by Dragonfly Capital, with participation from Bain Capital Crypto and Coinbase Ventures.The company is headquartered in the Cayman Islands and is dedicated to building an on-chain derivatives protocol for institutional and traditional financial traders. By aggregating liquidity from traditional finance and the crypto market, it aims to provide an on-chain market for real assets such as oil and commodities that can be traded instantly. Its core product, the Omni platform, adopts a zero-fee model and combines a liquidity pool mechanism to enhance market depth and execution efficiency.Variational stated that its goal is not to compete directly with centralized exchanges but to connect multi-source liquidity through a "brokerage-style" model, including traditional financial market makers and mainstream crypto trading platforms, to address the "liquidity cold start" problem in on-chain markets.

According to crypto analyst Yu Jin @EmberCN, suspected ARIA-related addresses concentrated on selling 45.64 million ARIA early this morning, exchanging for about 5.42 million USDT, with an average transaction price of about $0.12.As a result, the price of ARIA dropped from about $1.01 to $0.09, a decline of over 90%, with the circulating market value falling from about $315 million to about $38.5 million. The aforementioned tokens were previously transferred from Gate to the blockchain through 8 wallets three weeks ago.

According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen nearly 7% since Sunday, but the upward momentum has slowed after reaching the $72,000 range, with institutional fund direction unclear. The market is focused on two major uncertainties: the U.S. March CPI data (expected to exceed 3% year-on-year, driven by energy prices) and the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations over the weekend.The options market shows that institutions are simultaneously favoring $80,000 call options on Deribit and BlackRock's IBIT-related call options while maintaining a high proportion of put options to hedge against downside risks. If the CPI exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, putting pressure on risk assets, including Bitcoin.

VanEck's research director Matthew Sigel analyzed in a post on the X platform that the current protective demand in the Bitcoin derivatives market has risen to the historical 99th percentile, which is typically seen as a "contrarian buy signal" under extreme risk-averse market sentiment, and he judges that the market is currently suitable for establishing long positions.The VanEck Digital Transformation ETF (NODE), which Matthew Sigel also manages, has risen 27% since its inception, while Bitcoin has fallen 33% during the same period, achieving lower volatility performance through diversified allocation and focusing on profitable sectors. However, he also warns that if the massive capital expenditures in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector do not generate corresponding returns, it could pose substantial pressure on the market, especially in the context of a concentration in S&P 500 constituents.Note: Percentile is a statistical position concept, with the 99th percentile representing a relatively extreme level, and the 50th percentile representing the median level.

According to Jinshi reports, Huatai Securities believes that the better-than-expected rebound in March's non-farm data shows the resilience of the U.S. labor market. However, under the conflict in the Middle East, the impact of high oil prices on inflation expectations is more critical for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.Recently, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has intensified, and the oil supply gap caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has driven up oil prices and inflation expectations. Inflation is currently the core variable of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report supports that the current Bitcoin trend is under dual pressure from weakening demand and a deteriorating macro environment, with the market's future direction gradually being dominated by ETF fund flows.Currently, after failing to break through the range high, Bitcoin has fallen back to near the monthly opening level. The recent rise has been driven more by short liquidations rather than support from spot buying, reflecting insufficient upward momentum.At the same time, there has been a noticeable change in institutional funds. The continuous net outflow of Bitcoin ETFs indicates that the market is actively de-risking, and the capacity to absorb funds has significantly slowed down, further suppressing price performance.

According to CoinDesk, as of 1 AM, the number of long positions in BTC/USD on the Bitfinex exchange has surged to 79,343, reaching a 28-month high since November 2023.Historical data indicates that the surge in long positions on this platform has often served as a contrarian indicator, typically signaling price tops and impending sell-offs. For example, in the fourth quarter of 2025, while the number of BTC/USD longs increased by 30%, the spot price of Bitcoin fell by 23%.Currently, this extreme bullish sentiment indicator has once again raised a red flag. Coupled with geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic pressures, market analysts believe that Bitcoin's consolidation in the $65,000 to $75,000 range may end with a downward breakout, deepening the downtrend that began from last year's peak.

QCP Capital released a market analysis stating that BTC's current price remains around $74,000, oscillating within a recent range with insufficient upward momentum.Although the overall cryptocurrency market is under pressure, the decline is relatively controllable compared to the pullback of other macro-sensitive risk assets. On-chain data shows that there is still buying behavior at lower levels, but spot trading volume is low, and recent price movements are mainly influenced by macro factors.On the macro level, this week is the most important central bank policy week of the year. The Federal Reserve will announce the results of the March interest rate meeting on Wednesday, while the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will successively release their decisions on Thursday. Due to high oil prices, the market has significantly lowered interest rate cut expectations, and the interest rate environment's support for crypto assets is weakening.At the same time, geopolitical risks persist, and oil prices remain around $100 per barrel, with the market overall maintaining stagflation expectations. QCP Capital points out that BTC currently does not exhibit pure high-beta risk asset characteristics, nor has it formed a stable inflow of safe-haven funds. Before the policy path and geopolitical situation become clearer, the range-bound oscillation pattern may continue.

Kristin Smith, president of the Solana Policy Institute, recently shared her views on the legislative progress of the Clarity Act. She stated that although the bill faces resistance due to the withdrawal of support from Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and controversies in the banking sector, its complexity determines the long-term nature of the legislative process. Current negotiations exhibit two new characteristics: first, senior officials from the White House are directly involved, with presidential aides like David Sacks pushing for dispute resolution; second, traditional financial institutions are participating in negotiations for the first time.If the Senate Banking Committee can complete its review of the bill by March or April, there is hope to advance the legislation before the July recess; otherwise, the next window will not open until the fall. Smith, who previously led the Blockchain Association and spearheaded the passage of the Genius Act, believes that despite facing opposition from figures like Elizabeth Warren, the support from key Democrats such as Chuck Schumer and the ongoing pressure from President Trump are changing the odds of the bill's passage. On Wednesday, after Trump urged the banking sector to make concessions in a post on Truth Social, expectations in the market for the passage of cryptocurrency legislation within the year have noticeably increased.

Gate CBO Kevin Lee recently published an article titled "War, War Never Changes... How Will the Macro Market Move?" regarding the recent situation in the Middle East. He pointed out that geopolitical conflicts themselves do not alter the fundamental operating logic of the market; what truly determines the medium-term direction of assets is the impact of the prolonged conflict on the inflation path and changes in central bank policy orientation.Kevin stated that within hours to days after the outbreak of conflict, crude oil typically experiences significant volatility first, as the market prices in the tail risk of supply disruptions; gold then activates, serving both as a safe haven and an inflation hedge; the stock market faces short-term pressure, with VIX rising rapidly and significant sector divergence.As the situation progresses from several days to two weeks, if energy supply is not continuously damaged, oil prices and risk premiums often retrace, and stocks and crypto assets rebound with the recovery of risk sentiment; however, if high oil prices persist for an extended period, inflation expectations will be systematically elevated, shifting the asset pricing logic from a trading perspective to a macro perspective.The article further emphasizes that what truly changes the trend is not the market reaction on the day of the conflict but the inflation data and policy expectations that gradually emerge weeks later. Over a longer cycle, the market will reprice around the evolution path of inflation, the credibility of monetary policy, and the economic growth outlook. Historical experience repeatedly proves that in high-uncertainty environments, emotional decision-making often comes at a high cost; understanding the transmission sequence and respecting cyclical patterns are key to navigating volatility.

According to OnchainLens monitoring, Astaria founder Justin Bram deposited 14.19 million WLD into Binance 2 hours ago, worth approximately 5.72 million USD.

According to Cointelegraph, the Bitcoin market sentiment index has fallen to an all-time low, with some contrarian investors believing that $60,000 may have become the bottom of this cycle.Data shows that the cryptocurrency fear and greed index dropped to a historical low of 7 over the weekend, indicating that the market is in a state of "extreme fear." Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital, pointed out that this indicator, along with the relative strength index, shows that the market is deeply oversold, a similar situation occurred during the 2018 bear market and the pandemic crash in March 2020, which may create conditions for a rebound.CoinGlass's liquidation heatmap shows that if the Bitcoin price rises by about $10,000, it could trigger the liquidation of over $5.45 billion in short positions, while a drop to $60,000 would only trigger $2.4 billion in liquidations. This imbalance may drive a short covering rally. However, structural risks in the market still exist.CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin is still far below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with a price Z-score of -1.6, indicating that it remains in a phase dominated by selling pressure. The net buying volume in the derivatives market has turned negative, and the Binance buy-sell ratio has also fallen below 1, showing strong selling pressure in the futures market.Analysts point out that stronger spot demand is needed to trigger a sustained rebound. From a longer-term perspective, historical data shows that Bitcoin bear market bottoms typically form below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which is currently around $57,000. If history repeats itself, the downside scenario could extend to $42,000.

Investment firm Variant's Chief Legal Officer Jake Chervinsky posted on the X platform: "Today is my last day working full-time at the company, after which I will transition to an advisory role."