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first_img Variant Fund Investment Partner: The bottom of the cryptocurrency market may have appeared in July, and three types of assets will benefit from the market recovery

Variant Fund investment partner Alana Levin stated in her market thoughts for Q4 2026 that the bottom of the crypto market likely occurred at some point in July. She wrote in early July that the bottom seemed close, with Bitcoin at $59,000, Ethereum at $1,600, and ZEC at $420. She mentioned that the question has shifted to whether the bull market is genuinely starting or if it's a false rally, and which projects will benefit the most in the early bull market, assuming the market is in the early stages of a new crypto bull market.Levin indicated that the increasingly formed consensus is that marginal funds are most likely to flow into value storage protocols as currency and protocols that can generate income. She believes Bitcoin is the dominant asset for digital value storage currently, while other competing assets may be valued based on their market capitalization relative to Bitcoin's market cap and its changes. For income-generating protocols, she expects investors to examine whether the income comes from crypto-native activities (like Pump) or traditional financial activities (like Hyperliquid), whether it persists during market downturns, and profit margins; projects with exposure to real-world assets and stablecoin growth, which are expected to attract institutional users and are still led by founders after surviving a bear market, are more likely to achieve higher multiples.She also categorized on-chain projects that can benchmark against non-crypto businesses as a third category, believing that most belong to narrative trading rather than long-term investment. Themes include routing, reasoning, computing power, data collection, and interface-related directions in artificial intelligence, and she is skeptical about whether most scenarios require blockchain; if such projects significantly outperform, she would view it as a signal of nearing the top.

Security Agency: The Balancer attacker conducted an invariant attack on the BPT price calculation or is the main reason for the asset theft

The security agency BlockSec's on-chain tracking platform BlockSec Phalcon posted on platform X, stating, "Balancer and several of its fork projects were attacked a few hours ago, resulting in losses exceeding $120 million across multiple chains. This was an extremely complex attack.Preliminary analysis indicates that the root cause was the attacker's manipulation of the invariant calculation for BPT prices, distorting the BPT price calculation and allowing the attacker to profit from a single batch transaction from a specific stablecoin pool.Taking the attack transaction on Arbitrum as an example, the batch swap operation can be broken down into three stages: 1. The attacker exchanges BPT for the underlying asset to precisely adjust the balance of one token (cbETH) to bring it close to the rounding boundary (amount = 9). This creates conditions for precision loss in the next step; 2. The attacker then uses a pre-constructed amount (= 8) to swap between another underlying token (wstETH) and cbETH. Due to rounding down when scaling the token amount, the calculated Δx slightly decreases (8 0.918 to 8), resulting in an underestimated Δy, which causes the invariant (D) in Curve's StableSwap model to also decrease. Since BPT price = D / total supply, the BPT price is artificially suppressed; 3. The attacker then reverses the exchange of the underlying assets back to BPT, restoring balance while profiting from the drop in BPT price.
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