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Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn pointed out that as the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 significantly decreases, the U.S. SEC and CFTC are intensifying independent cryptocurrency regulatory actions. The bill previously gained bipartisan support in the Senate Banking Committee but has stalled due to unresolved ethical rules for officials regarding cryptocurrency, pressure from community banks leading to some Republican positions softening, and disputes over developer protection clauses. The Senate Majority Leader failed to push for a vote before the August recess, and the September session is only about two to three weeks long, leading Galaxy to lower the probability to 10%.On the SEC side, the originally planned "Reg Crypto" exemption (which provides a new path for primary issuance of crypto assets) and "Innovation Exemption" (which allows tokenized securities to trade in DeFi secondary markets) have been postponed multiple times. It is reported that the agency had retreated due to opposition from the traditional securities industry, but may restart due to the bleak outlook of the bill, with text expected to be released in the coming weeks to months. These measures are likely to be time-limited sandboxes that will face litigation and require years to refine. The CFTC is actively advocating for jurisdiction over prediction market contracts, responding to the New York Attorney General's attempt to issue an emergency order to ban Kalshi event contracts nationwide, continuing the tug-of-war over federal and state jurisdiction regarding prediction markets.Thorn believes that while the bill covers a comprehensive framework including registration licensing, compliance monitoring, and consumer protection, it is currently more dominated by political factors. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce's planned departure in November also adds urgency to the advancement of the rules. The related actions aim to fill the legislative vacuum but may ultimately undergo a lengthy judicial and rule-making process.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the prediction market Polymarket for the event "Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers," the option "Los Angeles Dodgers" in the sub-market "Spread -1.5" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, rising from 51.5% an hour ago to the current 70.5% (a fluctuation of 19%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction market for the event "San Diego Padres vs. Cleveland Guardians," the "San Diego Padres" option in the sub-market "Spread -1.5" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 68% an hour ago to the current 52% (a fluctuation of 16%). Please note the impact of relevant breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs" on the prediction market Polymarket, the winning probability of the "Chicago Cubs" option in the sub-market "Spread -1.5" has experienced significant fluctuations, soaring from 45.5% an hour ago to the current 83.5% (a fluctuation of 38%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates more than once before mid-2027 has decreased.

According to Reuters, Apple has trained a large language model for the Chinese market in collaboration with Alibaba. This move is different from Apple's previous strategy of relying on third-party models.Insiders revealed that Apple's AI toolkit, Apple Intelligence, is expected to launch in China in the coming months after an iOS update.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Clacton By-Election: Farage's Vote Share" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Farage 60--70%" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 28.85% an hour ago to the current 67.75% (a fluctuation of 38.9%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the prediction market Polymarket for the event "National Bank Open: Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima," the "over" option for the sub-market "National Bank Open: Ben Shelton vs. Brandon Nakashima Total Games in the Second Set Greater than 10.5" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 27% an hour ago to the current 42.5% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket event "Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays," the "Overtime" sub-market's "Yes" option probability has experienced a sharp fluctuation, soaring from 14.5% an hour ago to the current 50% (a fluctuation of 35.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the event "Clacton By-Election: Farage's Vote Share" on the prediction market Polymarket, the "Yes" option in the sub-market "Farage 80%+" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, plummeting from 48.5% an hour ago to the current 30.5% (a fluctuation of 18%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the market prediction on Polymarket for the "Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees" event, the option "New York Yankees" in the sub-market "First 5 Innings Spread -1.5" experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 34% an hour ago to the current 49.5% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Market pricing shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate in the range of 3.5%-3.75% in September is about 65%, up from about 60% before the release of the PPI report.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the prediction market Polymarket for the event "Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers," the option "Los Angeles Dodgers" in the sub-market "Spread -1.5" has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, rising from 55.5% an hour ago to the current 81% (a fluctuation of 25.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction market for the event "National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs. Ben Shelton," the "Over" option in the sub-market "National Bank Open: Learner Tien vs. Ben Shelton First Set O/U 8.5" experienced a sharp fluctuation in winning probability, dropping from 84% an hour ago to the current 50% (a fluctuation of 34%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

Bitcoin was reported at $63,500 around 1:30 PM Eastern Time on August 12, 2026. The total betting amount on the six active markets of the prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi exceeded $120 million, with traders placing bets on Bitcoin's subsequent price.The largest Bitcoin price market on Polymarket had a trading volume of approximately $52.1 million, with a 68% probability that Bitcoin will reach $70,000 by the end of 2026, and a 79% probability of reaching $60,000. The market gives probabilities of 51%, 32%, and 17% for reaching $75,000, $80,000, and $90,000, respectively.Polymarket's market trading volume for August 2026 is nearly $5 million, with a 70% probability that Bitcoin will reach $65,000 and an 81% probability that it will drop to $62,500 that month; the probabilities for reaching $67,500, $70,000, and $75,000 are 38%, 17%, and 3%, respectively. Polymarket also gives a 9% probability that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 within 2026. Kalshi data shows a 12% probability that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 before January 2027, with probabilities of 3% for reaching $150,000 and $200,000, respectively. Polymarket uses Binance BTC/USDT one-minute price K-line, while Kalshi uses CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real-Time Index, with different settlement rules.

According to The Bitcoin Historian (@pete_rizzo_), a member of the Taiwanese parliament stated that there is a "100% chance" that Taiwan will establish a strategic reserve of Bitcoin.The legislator emphasized that Bitcoin is different from gold, possessing the characteristics of digital transfer and verification, and pointed out that "the world has changed," with countries competing to lay out Bitcoin for national security considerations, acting ahead of the United States.

According to Bloomberg, former chief architect of Alibaba's flagship model, Lin Junyang, recently announced the establishment of a new company on the X platform, focusing on developing artificial intelligence agents for the digital and physical worlds.This comes less than six months after his unexpected departure from Alibaba. The company has received investment support from Tencent Holdings and several leading venture capital firms in China.

PPP market prediction tool monitoring shows that in the Polymarket "Anthropic valuation reaches target within the year" prediction event, the probability of reaching $1.5 trillion within the year has risen to 76%, an increase of 13% in 24 hours. The probability of reaching $1.25 trillion has risen to 92%, an increase of 8% in 24 hours. According to the settlement rules, this market primarily relies on the valuation of Anthropic's private market as announced by the Nasdaq Private Market (NPM).If Anthropic completes its IPO or direct listing during this period, the official issue price corresponding to the valuation and the public market value after listing will also be included in the settlement basis. Currently, the NPM data referenced on the Polymarket page shows a valuation of approximately $1.13 trillion. Previously, according to the Wall Street Journal, Anthropic plans to go public in September or early October, with specific issue prices and schedules yet to be announced. If successfully listed, it could become one of the largest IPOs in history.

According to Catcher Predict monitoring, in the Polymarket prediction market for the event "Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers," the option "Detroit Tigers -1.5" in the sub-market "First Five Innings Spread" experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 34.5% an hour ago to the current 50% (a fluctuation of 15.5%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.

According to monitoring by Catcher Predict, in the Polymarket event "Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins," the sub-market "First 5 Innings Spread -1.5" for the "Baltimore Orioles" option has experienced significant fluctuations in winning probability, soaring from 31.5% an hour ago to the current 49.5% (a fluctuation of 18%). Please note the impact of related breaking news.