macro

In response to today's significant decline in the U.S. stock market, with over $1 trillion in market value evaporating in a single day, Bitget CEO Gracy Chen pointed out that this round of adjustment reflects that global markets are reassessing macro risks at a faster pace. As rising oil prices once again elevate inflation concerns, the impact of geopolitical changes is no longer limited to the energy market but is beginning to more directly affect global capital allocation.Gracy believes that, in this context, Bitcoin will still maintain high volatility in the short term, but compared to previous phases where risk appetite sharply declined, Bitcoin's performance this time is relatively robust. This reflects that the overall leverage in the crypto market has significantly decreased, thereby limiting the scale of forced liquidations that typically amplify downward pressure during market stress. This relative resilience releases a more noteworthy signal that, in an increasingly fragmented macro environment, Bitcoin is starting to be viewed by some portfolios as a more neutral allocation choice.

According to Beincrypto, French President Macron will deliver a speech at Paris Blockchain Week on April 15. The event will take place from April 15 to 16 at the Carrousel du Louvre, and he will also become the first sitting G7 head of state to speak at an institutional-level conference focused on digital assets. This move is seen as a historic milestone and further confirms France's institutional leadership position in the European digital finance sector.President Macron will outline the strategic priorities for shaping European digital sovereignty to approximately 10,000 attendees, including the development of stablecoins denominated in euros, the launch of the digital euro, and the establishment of relevant regulatory frameworks to promote Europe's core position in the global digital economy. The conference will also invite several senior French government officials directly involved in European digital asset regulation, stablecoin policy, and the construction of institutional financial infrastructure to attend.

Bitcoin is currently maintaining a range-bound oscillation pattern. Under the multiple pressures of the macro environment, market liquidity continues to be constrained, and the price direction remains unclear. Analysis indicates that the interplay of energy prices, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks has led to a compression of liquidity, causing the market to enter a "wait-and-see period." The current market is not lacking in structure but rather in incremental funds.Recently, Bitcoin has stabilized after experiencing volatility, with selling pressure easing somewhat, while ETF fund flows have shown a slight net inflow. However, spot demand remains weak, and the imbalance between supply and demand limits price breakthroughs. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has found support in the $67,000-$69,000 range, with a key resistance level forming around $72,000. Analysts state that there is a "liquidity gap" above this range, and once effectively broken, the price could quickly rise to the $82,000 area; however, until demand shows significant improvement, the market will continue to maintain an oscillating pattern.On the macro level, high energy prices, global central banks maintaining high interest rates, and uncertainties in the Middle East collectively exacerbate market concerns about "stagflation" risks. Kraken Research points out that the combination of slowing growth and inflationary pressures complicates the policy path and suppresses the performance of risk assets. Against this backdrop, the market has entered a "liquidity compression phase."Bitunix analysis suggests that the mismatch of multiple macro factors has compressed funds into a narrow range, with Bitcoin acting more as a risk appetite indicator rather than a trend trading target. In terms of funds, the March spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $1.5 billion, an improvement from the net outflow in February, but still below January levels, indicating cautious institutional fund inflows. The derivatives market is leaning defensive, with funding rates remaining negative and high demand for downside protection; meanwhile, spot trading volume has not shown sustained growth, indicating limited market participation. Overall, Bitcoin has not yet formed a clear breakthrough or downward trend, and is currently closer to a "accumulation and consolidation" phase, with future movements still dependent on macro data, policy signals, and changes in geopolitical situations.

In the options market, implied volatility has slightly retreated, and the curve maintains a moderate positive spread. Downside hedging demand still exists but has not reached extreme levels, and geopolitical premiums continue to be reflected in volatility pricing.Currently, BTC has neither fully followed the high beta logic of the stock market nor formed stable safe-haven demand. Market trends are still primarily driven by news, and a trending market is yet to form until macro or geopolitical situations become clearer.

According to The Block, the Algorand Foundation announced a 25% staff reduction on March 18, 2026. The foundation stated that this layoff is a measure to respond to global macroeconomic uncertainty and the overall downturn in the cryptocurrency market, and it is not a hasty decision. It is reported that the total number of employees at the foundation is less than 200.Currently, the foundation holds approximately $38 million in dollar-denominated assets and 1.1 million ALGO tokens, with ALGO having a market capitalization of about $805.8 million, ranking 78th globally. The foundation stated that it will continue to focus on the long-term development and ecosystem construction of the Algorand protocol. This layoff is a reflection of the recent wave of layoffs in the cryptocurrency industry, with several projects such as OP Labs, Messari, and Block also announcing layoffs recently.

According to Jinshi News, Guolian Minsheng Macro stated that the Federal Reserve still has room for interest rate cuts this year. The impact of oil prices is more reflected in the pace and will not change the overall trend of interest rate cuts. Although the rate cut is delayed, it will eventually happen.

Bitcoin continues to strengthen under macro pressure, with prices rising about 2% and breaking through $72,000, outperforming the U.S. stock market. Meanwhile, Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 index futures fell during the Asian trading session, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) broke above 100. This trend typically puts pressure on risk assets like cryptocurrencies, but the crypto market overall still maintained an upward trajectory that day.In the derivatives market, the open interest (OI) in the crypto industry's futures increased by 5% to $10.76 billion in the past 24 hours, indicating continued inflow of funds. Among them, Bitcoin's OI rose to 687,200 BTC, the highest since February 25; Ethereum's OI climbed to 13.72 million ETH. Additionally, the open interest for tokens like XRP, SOL, ADA, and SUI also saw significant increases. Furthermore, Bitcoin's 30-day annualized implied volatility (BVIV) dropped to 55%, marking a two-week low, indicating a decrease in market volatility and providing conditions for further increases in spot prices. Meanwhile, the ongoing escalation of the Iran conflict keeps oil prices around $100 per barrel, but Bitcoin remains relatively stable amid geopolitical and macro uncertainties.

A macro model combining the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and the Chinese 10-year Treasury yield (US10Y × CN10Y) has recently shown an "extremely accurate" bullish crossover signal, which may provide guidance for the next round of Bitcoin's rise. Historical data indicates that this indicator has issued similar signals before bull markets in 2013, 2017, 2020-2021, and 2023, corresponding to Bitcoin price increases of approximately 8700%, 1900%, 600%, and over 350%, respectively.In addition, on-chain data also shows that whale addresses (wallets holding 1000-10000 BTC) have re-entered an accumulation phase during the recent price pullback, similar to behaviors observed near previous market bottoms. Analysis suggests that if Bitcoin stabilizes and rebounds near the 200-week moving average, the price may test $100,000 around August. However, if it fails to break through the key resistance level of $78,000, there remains a risk of forming a "bull trap."

In the past week, global markets have been dominated by energy price shocks and geopolitical risks. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East has pushed international oil prices upward, with WTI crude oil seeing a weekly increase of over 25%.Affected by macro risk sentiment, BTC, ETH, and U.S. stocks have all retreated. On-chain data shows that DEX trading volumes remain high overall, with the total market cap of stablecoins rising to approximately $330 billion, and USDC becoming the main source of growth. In the derivatives market, the perpetual funding rate for BTC continues to be negative, and implied volatility for options has risen above 60%, indicating that the market remains cautious about tail risks.On the institutional side, as the linkage between traditional finance and the crypto market strengthens, institutional infrastructure continues to improve. Gate has recently launched a TradFi API, providing a more efficient execution environment for quantitative teams, institutional traders, and professional investors. Additionally, Gate has reached a strategic partnership with Bank Frick to integrate its xPULSE payment infrastructure, offering multi-currency fiat deposit and withdrawal channels for institutional clients. With the ongoing enhancement of trading and funding channel infrastructure, Gate is accelerating the construction of a comprehensive service system aimed at institutional clients.

According to official social media news, the decentralized contract trading platform SunX will hold a live broadcast themed "Oil Surpassing 100: Trading Opportunities Amid Macro Turbulence" today at 20:00 (UTC+8). At that time, crypto KOLs such as Crypto.0824, Xiao Hai, Jiao Yi Yuan 527, Xiao Li, and Michill will be invited to discuss the correlation between the commodity and crypto asset markets in the context of significant fluctuations in the global macro environment, as well as the potential impact on trading strategies and capital flows after oil prices break through key levels.

Elon Musk posted on the X platform that Macrohard or Digital Optimus is a joint project between xAI and Tesla, which will be launched as part of the investment agreement between Tesla and xAI.Macrohard will run on Tesla's AI4 system ($650) and will use xAI's Nvidia hardware in a relatively restrained manner.In principle, Digital Optimus AI is capable of simulating the operations of an entire company. This is why the program is named MACROHARD, a playful jab at Microsoft. Currently, no other company is able to achieve this.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated, "Macroeconomic headwinds continue to pressure the crypto market, which remains under strain in the current challenging environment for risk assets. The latest macroeconomic data complicates the Federal Reserve's decision-making. Inflation remains stubborn, demand is still resilient, while the unemployment rate has begun to rise, making the overall economic situation increasingly complex. The latest non-farm payroll report also shows that layoffs far exceed market expectations, further exacerbating uncertainty. Meanwhile, market liquidity remains tight. This situation has even affected institutions like BlackRock, which recently had to limit investor redemptions due to insufficient available liquidity. Therefore, the Federal Reserve's policy balancing has become more difficult, and it is likely to maintain a wait-and-see attitude in the short term. This liquidity constraint is also impacting the crypto market. The net inflow of stablecoins to trading platforms has been negative overall since the beginning of this year. However, this trend seems to be showing signs of stabilization, which corresponds with Bitcoin attempting to stabilize around the current price level. For a more positive trend to emerge, the liquidity currently flowing out of the market (or funds directed towards assets like oil and precious metals) ultimately needs to flow back into the crypto market."

Despite several positive developments for the cryptocurrency industry this week, such as Morgan Stanley choosing BNY Mellon as the custodian for its spot Bitcoin ETF exposure, Kraken being approved for access to the Federal Reserve's payment system, and OKX receiving a $25 billion valuation from ICE, Bitcoin briefly approached $74,000 before falling back below $69,000, with the total market capitalization evaporating by approximately $110 billion.Market analysis suggests that macro factors such as a stronger dollar, rising oil prices, and changes in interest rate expectations are suppressing the performance of risk assets, preventing the crypto market from maintaining its upward momentum. On-chain data shows that short-term holders transferred over 27,000 BTC (approximately $1.8 billion) to exchanges to take profits when the price was close to $74,000, exacerbating short-term selling pressure. Despite the short-term bearish trend, there are some positive signals in the funding landscape, as the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net inflow of approximately $787 million last week, marking the first positive inflow since mid-January of this year, indicating that some institutional funds are refocusing on the crypto market.

According to The Block, Bitcoin has once again retreated after a recent rebound, falling below the $70,000 mark. The macro environment is becoming cautious, and the market still faces uncertainty. Analysts point out that since the escalation of the conflict in Iran, spot market buying has significantly increased, but ETF fund flows have reversed after three consecutive days of net inflows. The current market is still digesting multiple uncertainties, including the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, profit pressures in the tech industry, and vulnerabilities in the private credit market. If oil prices continue to rise, pushing yields higher, it may limit the further rebound potential of risk assets.In terms of derivatives, there are currently no obvious signs of excessive leverage. The growth of open interest is basically in sync with spot demand, and funding rates remain at moderate levels. Overall, the crypto market is still in a delicate balance between improving spot demand and macro pressures.

Gate Research Institute released a report titled "TradFi Asset Perpetualization: The Systematic Overlay Advantages of Gate Macro Perpetual Contracts," which points out that against the backdrop of intensified macro volatility and enhanced cross-market linkage in 2026, the demand from crypto traders for macro risk tools that are priced in stablecoins, composable, and executable 24/7 has significantly increased. Therefore, Gate has split macro trading into two complementary paths: on one hand, providing a professional trading entry closer to traditional market rules through Gate TradFi (MT5+CFD); on the other hand, launching macro perpetual contracts settled in USDT, allowing macro assets such as stocks, metals, indices, foreign exchange, and commodities to be directly included in a unified margin and risk control system of the contract account.The report shows that Gate has covered hundreds of macro perpetual assets across five categories: stocks, metals, indices, foreign exchange, and commodities. At the mechanism level, the platform handles pricing continuity during market closures through the Price-Hold mechanism and supports parallel long and short positions in the same market under a split account model, as well as mixed positions of full and isolated margin and independent leverage configuration for isolated long and short positions, thereby enhancing the executability of hedging, event-driven rebalancing, and strategy reuse.

According to Jinshi reports, Fed's Schmid stated that attention should be paid to the macro situation and the inflation target should be lowered to 2%; a large number of fiscal stimulus measures are expected to be introduced in 2026.

According to monitoring by HyperInsight, the risk-hedging portfolio deployed by the whale starting with 0x7c9 has encountered two-way losses within the day, with a capital drawdown exceeding $500,000. Currently, its account net worth is approximately $1.88 million, while the total position size remains as high as $14.07 million.This whale previously held a heavy position of about $8 million in GOLD (gold-mapped contracts) and SILVR (silver-mapped contracts) long positions, while also maintaining a package of short positions worth about $6 million, covering 102 cryptocurrencies, including mainstream coins like BTC and ETH, as well as various altcoins, attempting to hedge against extreme risks. However, the market trend has completely diverged from its preset direction: precious metals have declined during the day, while the crypto market has shown some recovery. Both long and short positions are under pressure, and all previous floating profits have been fully reversed.