Is it a downturn or an opportunity? The crypto market enters a "repricing moment": the macro logic behind the downturn, structural transformation, and future turning points

Since 2026, the overall performance of the crypto market has been under pressure, with Bitcoin and mainstream assets experiencing synchronized pullbacks, leading to a significant cooling of market sentiment. Behind this phase of stagnation, is it the end of a cycle or a prelude to structural reshaping?

In the recently released "2026 Digital Asset Trends White Paper" by Huobi HTX, it is pointed out that digital assets are completing their historic establishment as an asset class, and the market driving logic has fully shifted from "price cycles" to "structural trends." This judgment provides a key explanatory framework for the current market—behind the short-term volatility lies a deep reshaping driven by macro liquidity, institutional participation, regulatory evolution, and technological infrastructure upgrades.

The white paper further judges that the core issue in 2026 is no longer "whether digital assets have value," but rather "what proportion they should occupy in global asset allocation." Core assets like Bitcoin are gradually embedding themselves into the traditional financial system, forming a new allocation structure alongside assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold; at the same time, the rise of stablecoins, RWA, and on-chain yield assets is reshaping the flow of funds within the crypto system.

In this context, the current market "stagnation" is essentially a phase of growing pains in the transition from a high-volatility growth stage to a mature financial system. This article systematically reviews the current crypto market stagnation based on the macro environment, institutional behavior, market structure, and industry trends, and combines the research perspective of Huobi HTX to conduct a forward-looking analysis of potential turning points and long-term trends, aiming to provide market participants with a more framework-based judgment reference.

I. Current Market Status

II. Core Reasons for Market Stagnation

1. Macroeconomic Pressure (Main Driving Force)

The Trump tariff war is the biggest external shock since 2025.

• In October 2025, U.S. tariffs on China rose to 100%, initiating retaliatory tariffs on multiple countries.

• Tariff announcement → Global stock market sell-off → Institutions reduce BTC ETF holdings → Strengthening dollar → Rising Treasury yields → Leveraged liquidations → BTC plummets.

• During the tariff war, gold reached a historical high against the trend, while BTC crashed, completely breaking the "digital gold" narrative.

• The IMF simultaneously lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2026, with recession expectations suppressing risk appetite.

The Federal Reserve's policy remains hawkish.

• In a high-interest-rate environment, traditional savings are more attractive, and "hot money" no longer flows into crypto.

• Expectations for Fed rate cuts have been repeatedly delayed, and the liquidity easing time window has not yet opened.

2. Institutional ETF "Double-Edged Sword" Effect

ETFs allow traditional institutions to sell Bitcoin anytime like selling stocks. Institutionalization means more efficient buying, but also more efficient selling. When macro pressures arise, pension funds and RIAs' risk management models automatically reduce positions, accelerating sell-offs.

3. Controversy Over the Ineffectiveness of Halving Cycle Patterns

Bears (Benjamin Cowen): Predicts a 75% probability that BTC will hit a new low before October 2026; the Pi-Cycle Top indicator has not shown a crossover signal, and the October 2025 high may only be a local peak.

Bulls (Tom Lee): The lagging effect of liquidity trends post-halving has not yet manifested; structural institutional holdings will explode in the second half when the Fed turns; target price of $200,000.

4. Structural Collapse of the Altcoin Market

• A large number of tokens issued in 2024-2025 have fallen into a situation with no buyers.

• Retail confidence continues to be suppressed by the lessons of FTX, Luna, and others.

• The AI + Meme narrative is rotating too quickly, leading to user fatigue.

• Tiger Research predicts: Projects that cannot generate sustainable income will exit in bulk.

5. Geopolitical and War Risks

• The situation in the Middle East remains tense (temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz still blocked, conflicts between Israel and Palestine, and Lebanon).

• The U.S.-Israel-Iran triangle's tensions continue to suppress risk assets.

• After Iran announced a ceasefire on April 8, 2026, Trump announced on April 17 that the Strait of Hormuz was temporarily opened, and BTC rebounded significantly to $78,000 in one day, indicating that geopolitical fears are an important suppressive factor.

III. Core Judgments from Institutions/Analysts

Bullish Side

Bearish/Cautious Side

Neutral/Structural Views

IV. Stablecoins: Highlights in Stagnation

Conclusion: Funds have not left crypto amid tariff panic but have shifted to stablecoins for hedging—indicating that the trust in crypto infrastructure is increasing, while the market's tolerance for volatile assets is decreasing.

V. Catalysts for Rebound (When Will Stagnation End)

VI. Huobi HTX Views

6.1 Core Judgment on Market Stagnation

Huobi HTX believes: The current stagnation is not an end but a phase of growing pains during structural transformation.

"Digital assets are gradually completing their transition from 'price cycle-driven' to 'structural trend-driven.' Factors such as macro liquidity, regulatory frameworks, levels of institutional participation, and technological advancements are becoming core variables determining the long-term landscape of the industry. Short-term price volatility will still exist, but what truly affects the industry's direction is the establishment of asset class status, the improvement of infrastructure capabilities, and the reshaping of global capital structures."

6.2 Structural Interpretation of Stagnation Reasons

A. Liquidity Rebalancing is Fundamental

• The Federal Reserve is repeatedly weighing between falling inflation and resilient employment, with rate cut timing swinging.

• Weak growth momentum in Europe and advancing normalization of Japanese rates are changing the structure of global arbitrage funds.

• Digital assets have deeply embedded themselves in the global liquidity framework, with pricing logic aligning more closely with traditional macro assets—this is the essential reason for the high correlation between BTC and the S&P.

B. Institutionalization is a Process of Maturity, Not a Source of Risk

"The market in 2026 is more concerned with the question of 'what proportion digital assets should occupy in asset allocation,' rather than 'whether digital assets have value.' This shift marks the industry's entry into a mature phase."

The short-term volatility brought about by the increase in institutional share is a necessary stage in the industry's maturation—an increase in institutional holdings will change market structures, with long-term capital proportions increasing and overall volatility levels tending to decrease.

C. The Counter-Cyclical Growth of Stablecoins Validates Infrastructure Value

"Stablecoins are becoming the 'on-chain printing machine' of the dollar system, and their liquidity changes will become important leading indicators of market risk appetite and fund flows."

Currently, the scale of stablecoins exceeds $300 billion, with monthly trading volume surpassing that of the U.S. banking network, proving the lasting trust in crypto infrastructure.

6.3 Huobi HTX 2026 Strategic Keywords

6.4 Core Predictions of Huobi HTX's Five Major Trends

Trend One: BTC's Digital Gold Position Solidifies

BTC will exist as a structurally allocated asset, with volatility tending to converge, and the proportion of long-term holders continuously increasing, further shifting market pricing power towards medium- and long-term capital.

Trend Two: ETH Becomes the Core Carrier of Yield Assets

Driven by staking + DeFi protocol income, ETH is approaching a "growth-type yield asset" in institutional portfolios, serving as the core value capture vehicle for on-chain economic activities.

Trend Three: Stablecoin Scale Continues to Hit New Highs

It will expand from a medium of exchange to cross-border payments and on-chain settlements, becoming the third-largest channel for global dollar circulation (after the bank deposit market and U.S. Treasury market).

Trend Four: AI Agents Become the Main Characters of the Next Narrative

On-chain automation execution will become the focus of a new round of technological competition. Huobi HTX has taken the lead in laying out AI Skills and AI interaction interfaces, being one of the mainstream CEXs to achieve the integration of AI and exchange capabilities.

Trend Five: RWA as a Robust Track Amidst Stagnation

The tokenization of real assets is entering an acceleration phase, with RWA scale expected to exceed $1 trillion before 2030, serving as a key bridge for the integration of the crypto market and traditional finance.

VII. White Paper Perspective: Confirmation and Supplement of Long-Term Trends

Additionally, the "2026 Digital Asset Trends White Paper" provides important confirmation and supplementation to the above analysis. In Chapter Eight, "Key Judgments for the Next Decade," the white paper offers a more forward-looking systematic perspective on the structural changes in the current market.

Regarding stablecoins, the white paper clearly states that "stablecoins are profoundly changing the global payment and financial system structure," and predicts that "if stablecoins continue to maintain their current development trend, their market scale is expected to reach trillions of dollars in the next decade, potentially becoming the third-largest channel for dollar circulation after the U.S. bank deposit market and the U.S. Treasury market."

This judgment aligns closely with the analysis in Chapter Four of this report, "Stablecoins: Highlights in Stagnation"—the current migration of funds to stablecoins is not merely a risk-averse behavior but reflects a deeper recognition of the functional capabilities of crypto market infrastructure. As market participants (including institutions) increasingly view stablecoins as a store of value and medium of exchange rather than a short-term hedging tool, stablecoins are effectively completing the transition from "an appendage of the crypto market" to "the third pole of global dollar circulation."

Regarding the deeper logic of institutional participation, the white paper believes that "the short-term volatility brought about by the increase in institutional share is a necessary stage in the industry's maturation—an increase in institutional holdings will change market structures, with long-term capital proportions increasing and overall volatility levels tending to decrease." This judgment provides a more macro perspective for understanding the current ETF "double-edged sword" effect: the short-term selling pressure brought about by institutionalization is essentially an extension of traditional financial market risk management logic into the crypto world, resulting in the acceleration of the industry's bubble clearing rather than altering the long-term development direction of the industry.

Regarding trends for the next decade, the white paper proposes that "the combination of AI and blockchain may become one of the most important technological trends in the next decade," and predicts that "as the number of AI Agents continues to increase, they may gradually become important participants in the on-chain economy, and even become the main trading entities in certain scenarios." This suggests that the rapid rotation of the current AI + Meme narrative may only be the initial stage of the combination of AI and Crypto; as the autonomy of AI Agents on-chain increases, the structural composition of the on-chain economy will undergo fundamental changes, and the "traders" of the future may no longer be just human investors.

Regarding the long-term direction of the market, the core judgment of the white paper is: "The development history of digital assets is, in fact, a process from technological experimentation to financial system reconstruction. Over the past decade, blockchain technology has completed infrastructure construction; while in the next decade, digital assets may gradually evolve from an emerging asset class to an important component of the global financial system." Combined with this report's analysis of the current stagnation period, this judgment implies that the current market adjustment is both a painful process of industry de-bubbling and a necessary stage in the transition of digital assets from "high-volatility innovative assets" to "mature financial infrastructure." Short-term price stagnation can never negate long-term structural trends—the "more open, efficient, and globalized on-chain financial network" described in the white paper may well be the destination the industry reaches after this round of stagnation.

Sources: BlockEden, Old Danny, Tiger Research, Messari, Delphi Digital, a16z, Coinbase Research, BeInCrypto, CoinTelegraph, Huobi HTX "2026 Digital Asset Trends White Paper"

About Huobi HTX

Huobi HTX was established in 2013 and has developed over 13 years from a cryptocurrency exchange into a comprehensive blockchain business ecosystem, covering digital asset trading, financial derivatives, research, investment, incubation, and other businesses.

As a leading global Web3 portal, Huobi HTX adheres to a development strategy of global expansion, ecological prosperity, wealth effect, and security compliance, providing comprehensive, safe, and reliable value and services for virtual currency enthusiasts worldwide.