correlation

CryptoQuant posted on social media that the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to -0.88, setting a new low.This means that the two show a strong negative correlation trend, with capital flowing into Bitcoin pushing its price up to $74,000, while gold has seen a slight decline.

According to the macro briefing released by Binance Research, a review of eight major energy supply disruptions from 1979 to 2019 shows that oil price trends exhibit a "two-phase" pattern: the first phase is the "hesitation period" (0-30 days), where market pricing reflects uncertainty rather than scarcity, with a historical average increase of only about 2%. However, on the fifth day of the current conflict, Brent crude oil has already risen by 9%, indicating that the market is pricing in tail risks in advance.The second phase is the "scarcity digestion period" (30-360 days), which begins when the 25-day inventory buffer of Gulf countries is exhausted, leading to forced production cuts. The historical average increase during this phase is 44%, with extreme cases reaching 110%-140%. The report notes that the daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from a normal 16 million barrels to 4 million barrels, and Gulf countries have only 25 days of buffer left. When the tank utilization rate reaches the critical threshold of 85%, oil fields will be forced to shut down, and oil prices will enter an accelerated phase of the "scarcity digestion period." If oil prices remain between $85 and $95, a CPI increase of 30-40 basis points is manageable; if oil prices rise to $115-$130, CPI will increase by 110-150 basis points, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts until 2027; if oil prices exceed $180, CPI will rise by over 300 basis points, possibly triggering stagflation.Currently, Bitcoin maintains a correlation of over 0.9 with tech stocks. If oil prices remain above $110, a CPI rise to 3% and real interest rates exceeding 2.5% will trigger a sell-off in tech stocks, at which point the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks may break, triggering a shift in the "digital gold" narrative. Key indicators to watch include: vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, inventory utilization rates in Gulf countries, CPI data on March 11, Federal Reserve guidance on March 18, whether the 10-year TIPS real interest rate exceeds 2.5%, whether the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the IGV index falls below 0.5, and whether ETF fund flows turn into net inflows.

A Bank of America (BofA) survey in February showed that investors' bearish positions on the dollar have fallen to the lowest level since 2012, with dollar allocations at a historically low level.Traditionally, a weaker dollar is usually favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin, but the report noted that since the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin has shown an unusual positive correlation with the dollar index, with a 90-day correlation coefficient rising to 0.6 at one point. Analysts believe that if this correlation continues, further declines in the dollar may not be beneficial for Bitcoin and could instead put pressure on it; conversely, if the dollar rebounds due to short covering, Bitcoin may rise accordingly, and market volatility could significantly increase.

ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated on the X platform that, contrary to the current mainstream view, BTC, ETH, Solana, and hyperliquid may be good options for diversified investments.Since the beginning of 2020, the correlation between Bitcoin prices and gold prices has been low, at only 0.14. Gold has led Bitcoin in the last two Bitcoin bull markets.

PlanB posted on platform X that the current historical correlation between the $87,500 BTC, $6,900 stocks, and $4,500 gold is disconnected. A similar situation occurred when BTC prices were below $1,000, after which BTC prices increased tenfold. PlanB pointed out that there is also a possibility of the correlation being broken, and whether the current situation is different still needs time to verify.

Suspected "1011 Insider Whale" Garrett Jin posted on the X platform, stating that last week's sell-off of AI concept stocks in the US stock market may have been due to sell-side analysts emotionally misreading comments from the CEO of Broadcom. This week, the AI sector has begun to rebound broadly, including Oracle, which is still weighed down by debt issues. This trend typically indicates the end of panic sentiment.Garrett Jin further noted that the correlation between ETH and the Nasdaq 100 index remains high, and the Nasdaq 100 index has fully recovered from the declines triggered by those "negative news," suggesting that ETH may also be poised for a rebound.

In the context of an intensified crypto bear market and a cooling risk appetite, Bitcoin has completely erased all gains since the end of last year. In the early hours of Monday, BTC fell below $93,600, reaching below the opening price at the beginning of the year. Bitwise CIO Matthew Hougan pointed out that major buyers—including ETF allocators and institutional debt allocators—have been continuously withdrawing over the past month, leading to the emergence of the capital outflow effect that originally supported BTC's all-time highs. In just 41 days, the total market capitalization of the crypto market has evaporated by $1.1 trillion. Although the current liquidation scale is about 10% lower than the peak on October 10, the risk sentiment remains fragile.At the same time, the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks has rapidly increased. Data from the Kobeissi Letter shows that the 30-day correlation between BTC and the Nasdaq 100 has risen to 0.80, a new high since 2022, with a five-year correlation also reaching 0.54. Bitcoin is behaving more like a "high-beta tech stock" rather than an independent macro hedge asset.While sentiment is under pressure, external structural changes are also worth noting. The global ETF issuance reached 137 new funds in October, with 15 new cryptocurrency ETFs, more than double that of September. The total number of global ETFs issued this year has reached 918, and it is expected to exceed 1,100 for the entire year, setting a new historical record.In terms of market views, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee emphasized that although BTC has experienced multiple rounds of deep declines, it is still in a super cycle level over the past decade, and he believes Ethereum is entering a similar path. Arete Capital partner McKenna pointed out that BTC may have a short-term downside risk of up to 31%, with key support levels at $96,200, $93,300, and the $86,000-$91,000 range. He expects that it may be difficult to reach new highs within 2025, but with institutional accumulation and ETF capital driving it, BTC is expected to break through $200,000 before the end of Trump's term.4E reminds investors: The market is currently under "triple pressure" from macro risk aversion, capital withdrawal, and increased correlation with tech stocks. The mid-to-long-term logic for BTC remains unchanged, but short-term volatility may continue to amplify, necessitating attention to capital flows, changes in correlation, and the stability of key support areas.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 index has reached approximately 0.80, the highest level since 2022. This is also the second highest reading in nearly a decade.It has been reported that the correlation between the two has remained positive over the past five years, with a brief fluctuation in 2023. Therefore, the five-year correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has reached 0.54. In contrast, the correlation between Bitcoin and cash and gold is essentially zero. Bitcoin's performance is increasingly resembling that of a leveraged tech stock.

Wintermute tweeted, "Bitcoin is still correlated with the stock market, but this correlation only manifests during market downturns. The correlation coefficient remains high at around 0.8, but Bitcoin's response to the decline of the Nasdaq index is stronger than its response to increases. This negative performance shift has reached levels not seen since the end of 2022, while the current price hovers near historical highs."

ChainCatcher message, Binance co-founder Zhao Changpeng posted on platform X: "Asking a stupid question about platform X, during the bear market, the number of fans grew rapidly from 9 million to 10 million.Then, even in this bull market, the number of fans stagnated after reaching 10 million. In the previous bull market, fan growth was rapid. Has it lost relevance now? Is this normal? Or is there a problem with X itself? Or am I too 'KOL'? Or, have we not entered a real bull market yet?"

ChainCatcher news, Fidelity Digital Assets stated that the changing correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield suggests that BTC may be maturing and is no longer just a high-risk asset.The institution indicated that as the BTC price remains above $100,000, they will continue to monitor the correlation between the two.

ChainCatcher message, according to a post by Glassnode on platform X, states that "since 2022, the beta value of Bitcoin relative to global liquidity (GLI) and stock markets (such as SPY/QQQ) has been continuously rising, while its beta to credit stress (high-yield bond spread HY OAS) has become increasingly negatively correlated. This indicates that BTC is increasingly behaving like a macro asset: it rises when risk appetite increases and falls when market pressure intensifies."

ChainCatcher news, according to Glassnode data, the short-term correlation between Bitcoin and gold has dropped to -0.54 in the past 30 days, the lowest level since February.Meanwhile, the 90-day and 365-day correlations remain positive, at 0.39 and 0.60, respectively.

ChainCatcher message, Nick Tomaino, founder of 1confirmation, stated on platform X, "There is a negative correlation between the hype of the seed round stage and the success of the project. Participating in a hot funding round is indeed exciting: high funding amounts, intense competition, well-known investors, extensive media coverage, etc. However, participating in such 'hot projects' before product-market fit is clear rarely leads to truly outstanding results. Some of the most 'hyped' projects we invested in at 1confirmation turned out to be the worst investments. There are a few reasons for this:Creating market hype is a skill, but it is completely different from the ability to build useful products.Founders who are 'crowned' too early may feel they have already succeeded, thus losing their 'killer' instinct.Over-funding often leads to distraction and lack of focus.I would choose focused and accountable founders over respected founders who are busy all day."

ChainCatcher news, Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform, "Yesterday, while the stock market fell, Bitcoin surged significantly, showing a negative correlation with the stock market over the past week or so, outperforming U.S. Treasuries (which have become unreliable again), although gold also performed comparably to its own level (-98). Of course, this is a ridiculous short-term framework, but in my view, if Bitcoin wants to be seen as a true alternative, it must achieve an increase."

ChainCatcher message, cryptocurrency analyst Miles Deutscher stated that the correlation between cryptocurrencies and tech stocks has reached a historical peak. Unless proven otherwise, cryptocurrencies are merely leveraged bets on risk assets, rather than digital gold.

ChainCatcher news, Matrixport analysis shows that the Bitcoin ETF IBIT's 30-day actual correlation with Nasdaq is approaching 70%, a level that has only occurred twice in history, indicating that Bitcoin is currently driven by macro factors and is moving in line with other risk assets.The high correlation mainly stems from the market's reassessment of earnings expectations ahead of the first-quarter earnings season and the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies.However, historical data indicates that such a high correlation is difficult to sustain, and Bitcoin may experience a divergence in trends from Nasdaq in the future.

ChainCatcher news, the market data platform Barchart published an analysis on platform X, pointing out that AI token traders usually pay more attention to chip giant Nvidia. However, its stock price has just formed the first death cross since April 2022 (the 50-day moving average falling below the 200-day moving average), and the last death cross led to a 47% plunge in its stock price over the following six months.Although Nvidia's stock price showed bearish signals this week, AI tokens were not affected. Render (RNDR) rose by 4.06%, while Bittensor (TAO) and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET) both increased by about 2.88%. Analysts believe that Nvidia's stock price has, at times, shown no significant correlation with AI token price trends. For example, in the first quarter of last year, Nvidia's revenue grew by 18%, but the strong performance did not lead to a similar trend in AI token prices. Some cryptocurrency traders believe that only AI tokens with real utility will thrive in the future.