election

According to The Block, the total amount of bets related to the 2026 elections on the Polymarket platform has exceeded $2 billion. With the elections in Hungary and Peru approaching, the betting volume in April has significantly increased; the share of bets from non-U.S. markets has risen significantly and now accounts for a majority.The Block points out that election prediction markets are no longer exclusive to the United States and are gradually becoming a global phenomenon.

According to the Financial Times, an analysis of campaign finance records shows that the cryptocurrency and AI industries have raised approximately $250 million over the past year to support congressional candidates in the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November.A16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz donated a total of $25 million in February to the pro-AI Super PAC "Leading The Future." The organization has raised about $75 million from billionaires, including the two mentioned above and OpenAI co-founder Greg Brockman; when including "dark money" non-profits that do not disclose their donors, that figure rises to $140 million. The largest Super PAC in the crypto industry, Fairshake, has raised over $134 million on its own.In January, Cantor Fitzgerald, a Wall Street firm previously led by current U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and now managed by his son Brandon, which has a partnership with Tether, donated $10 million to the pro-crypto Super PAC Fellowship; the parent company of the major crypto platform, Anchor Labs, also added a $1 million donation to Fellowship PAC. Elon Musk donated $1.6 million to his America PAC in March, significantly reducing his involvement compared to 2024, when he invested over $250 million across various PACs.Anthropic has pledged $20 million to the non-profit Public First Action, which has redirected some of the funds to a Super PAC to influence the 2026 elections. The company holds a relatively unique position in the industry, explicitly calling for the establishment of strict federal AI safety regulations, which diverges from the majority of participants in the AI industry.

According to The Hill, the White House seems eager to push for a resolution to the dispute between the banking industry and the cryptocurrency sector, a dispute that has hindered Senate negotiations on the legislation since the beginning of this year. Key officials both inside and outside the U.S. government—from Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen to White House crypto advisor Patrick Witte, and former head of AI and crypto affairs David Sacks—have recently called for the passage of the bill.At the same time, the Council of Economic Advisers released a report that countered the relevant concerns of the banking industry. However, it is still unclear whether the White House's push is sufficient to overcome the issues plaguing the bill, which are not limited to the narrow industry disputes that have dominated discussions over the past three months. Christopher Neuber, a senior research analyst at Beacon Policy Advisors, stated in an interview, "From a timing perspective, their judgment is reasonable—if Congress has the opportunity to push the market structure bill through, now is that opportunity."

According to BIT analysis, Bitcoin futures open interest has significantly reduced from the peak of $42 billion in October 2025 to the current $21 billion, as the market has undergone deep deleveraging. Currently, on-site leverage is noticeably low, and small-scale capital inflows can have an amplifying effect on prices; the funding rate has recently fluctuated sharply between -12.6% and +7.1%, with rapid switching between long and short positions.On the clearing front, the last concentrated forced liquidation occurred on February 6, and the previous leverage has basically been cleared, resulting in a relatively healthy position structure. In the short term, Bitcoin has not formed a clear directional trend, but the market is in a highly sensitive state, and any capital inflow or narrative shift could trigger unexpected price volatility.

According to The Block, Anchorage Digital and Chainlink Labs jointly funded the newly established political action committee "Blockchain Leadership Fund," marking Anchorage Digital's first involvement in PAC financing.The fund plans to support candidates who promote digital asset and blockchain policies ahead of the midterm elections and actively engage in voter education. Currently, the U.S. Congress's cryptocurrency legislative process is stalled, with the Senate Banking Committee still at odds with the banking industry over stablecoin reward regulation issues. Meanwhile, the crypto advocacy organization Stand With Crypto has also launched a legislator digital asset position scoring system to continue building momentum for the industry ahead of the 2026 elections.

According to the Korea Times, South Korea's second-largest cryptocurrency exchange, Bithumb, is still pushing for the re-election of its current CEO, Lee Jae-won, despite facing a series of controversies and regulatory penalties. Previously, on February 6, 2026, Bithumb experienced a serious operational error during a promotional event, resulting in the erroneous distribution of approximately 620,000 BTC, about 15 times the actual amount held by the exchange, to users. This exposed significant flaws in Bithumb's internal verification, asset management, and ledger systems. The error was discovered and controlled within 35 minutes, with the exchange freezing transactions and withdrawals for 695 affected accounts, claiming to have recovered 99.7% of the erroneously issued assets, but the incident still triggered a brief panic in the market.The Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) under the South Korean Financial Services Commission imposed several penalties on Bithumb, including a six-month suspension of some operations, a 36.8 billion won (approximately 24 million USD) fine for anti-money laundering violations, a warning to CEO Lee Jae-won, and a six-month suspension for the reporting officer.CEO Lee Jae-won's term will end this month, and the company plans to hold a regular shareholders' meeting on March 31 to discuss a proposal to extend his term for another two years. Despite the significant failures and regulatory pressure, Bithumb has chosen to push for re-election to maintain operational continuity and stability rather than undergo a management reshuffle. In similar situations in the past, such as when Upbit's CEO transitioned to an advisory role after receiving a warning from the FIU, management often faced greater accountability.

According to a report by Jinshi, the latest NBC poll shows that Trump's support among registered voters has decreased by 3 percentage points from 47% in March 2025 to 44%, with disapproval rising to 54%. The average of Decision Desk HQ polls also shows similar results: 43.1% approval and 54.4% disapproval.Investinglive analyst Adam Button stated that the key for the market lies in the situation of the midterm elections. Trump himself has pointed out this risk, noting that historical patterns show that the party in the White House typically faces setbacks in midterm elections. If the Republican Party loses seats in Congress, it will reshape the legislative landscape regarding tax policy, tariffs, and deregulation, while current stock valuations have to some extent already priced in expectations for these policies.The big question ahead is whether Trump will begin to face internal pressure to quickly end the war. Republicans have certainly acknowledged that they will lose the House of Representatives, and as the Middle Eastern war diminishes some of their voter base, the control of the Senate becomes increasingly uncertain.

Data shows that lobbying groups related to the cryptocurrency industry have invested approximately $271 million to influence the 2026 U.S. elections, mainly for political activities such as advertising. Among them, the super PAC FairShake is one of the main sources of funding, with donors including Coinbase, Ripple, Uniswap Labs, and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz.The data also indicates that about 40% of the related funds are directed towards Republican candidates, about 3% towards Democratic candidates, and the remainder supports independent candidates. Industry insiders say that as the 2026 U.S. midterm elections approach, lobbying activities in the cryptocurrency industry are expected to continue to increase.

According to Decrypt, the National Anti-Corruption Center of Moldova (CNA) has disclosed a plan to influence the country's parliamentary elections in 2025 using cryptocurrency, involving an amount of $107 million.CNA Director Alexandr Pinzari stated that the plan involved "complex trading operations" through non-custodial cryptocurrency wallets, transferring virtual assets to intermediaries in Moldova, who would then convert them into cash and distribute them to local activists for bribing voters, promoting specific candidates, and mobilizing rally participants. The source of the funds can be traced back to two centralized cryptocurrency platforms in Russia and Kyrgyzstan.Blockchain analysis firm TRM Labs linked the activity to the "Russia-backed foreign influence operation InfoLider" and confirmed that the Kyrgyzstan cryptocurrency exchange TokenSpot is one of the sources of the transactions. TRM Labs had previously identified TokenSpot as a potential front company for the sanctioned Russian exchange Garantex, both of which are closely related to the "Kremlin-backed sanctions evasion ecosystem."

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has confirmed that he will run in the 2028 U.S. presidential election. Previously disclosed information reveals that he owns at least $1 million in Bitcoin and does not intend to divest this asset. He has also publicly stated that he is a staunch supporter of Bitcoin, believing that decentralization, a capped supply, neutral currency, and other hard assets like gold and silver can stabilize the dollar and prevent currency devaluation.

Cryptocurrency journalist Eleanor Terrett posted on the X platform that another key advocate for cryptocurrency tax reform in the U.S. Senate will not seek re-election.Senators Lummis and Steve Daines have confirmed they will not run for re-election, and Marsha Blackburn will also leave the Senate if elected Governor of Tennessee.

Musk stated on social media that the X platform has added a timeline theme selection feature, allowing users to switch between different content themes based on their interests. He mentioned that if users feel fatigued by political content, they can choose other thematic content. Users can adjust their settings by clicking on the "For You" page.

The Chair of the UK's National Security Council, Matt Western, has called for an urgent temporary ban on political donations in cryptocurrency to prevent foreign interference in UK elections. Matt Western stated that such donations need to be suspended until the risks associated with cryptocurrency donations (including thorough checks on the sources of funds) are addressed.The committee also called for a review of sentencing for electoral offenses, believing that deterrence needs to be strengthened. Western has written to the Cabinet Minister responsible for election finance, Steve Reed, requesting immediate action—previously, the new election bill did not include provisions to restrict cryptocurrency donations.Earlier this year, the Reform UK party became the first to express acceptance of digital currency donations, reportedly receiving its first registrable cryptocurrency donations and establishing a dedicated crypto portal. In his letter, Western expressed concern that, given the deteriorating global security environment, the intent of foreign interference in UK political finance may intensify before the next election.

According to Cointelegraph, data shows that the crypto market has largely retraced the gains made after the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Total3 (the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) surged over 91% shortly after the election results were announced on November 5, 2024, rising from about $600 billion to $1.16 trillion by December 2024. The market then fell back to around the $900 billion range and briefly rebounded to $1.13 trillion on January 18, 2025.In October 2025, Total3 reached a new stage high of about $1.19 trillion but subsequently faced a significant decline, breaking the structural uptrend. Currently, Total3 is approximately $713 billion, down about 40% from the October 2025 peak, nearing the mid-November 2024 levels, with no clear signs of sustained recovery in the market.In terms of mainstream assets, Bitcoin has seen a maximum drop of over 50% from its peak to its low, dipping to around $60,000 before rebounding to about $68,000; Ethereum has retraced about 60% from its historical high of nearly $5,000 in August 2025. Sentiment indicators are also at low levels. CMC's Fear and Greed Index reports a score of 14, indicating "extreme fear," and on February 5, it briefly fell to 5, one of the lowest levels on record.

According to The Hill, the cryptocurrency industry is ramping up its spending in preparation for the upcoming U.S. midterm elections after achieving several key victories and accumulating significant funds in 2024.The industry's main super PAC network, Fairshake, has over $193 million in cash on hand as of early 2026 and has announced several targets for this election cycle: including supporting Congressman Barry Moore (Republican-Alabama) in the Alabama Senate race, and pushing to oust Congressman Al Green (Democrat-Texas) in the House elections. After making substantial investments in the last U.S. elections and claiming victories in at least two high-profile campaigns, this has secured some early wins for the industry in Congress and significantly elevated the cryptocurrency sector's standing in Washington.The impact of the cryptocurrency industry in 2024 was most pronounced, as it invested tens of millions of dollars in multiple primaries and competitive elections. According to 2024 campaign finance filings, the Fairshake super PAC network, which includes three affiliated groups, spent nearly $180 million in the last cycle.

According to CoinDesk, Citi's analysis indicates that Bitcoin is approaching a key price support level ahead of the U.S. elections.The report states that after several weeks of decline, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the bank's estimated average entry cost of approximately $81,600 for the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF and is nearing the critical level of about $70,000 prior to last year's election.The report points out that the main new source of demand supporting the market—ETF inflows—has significantly slowed, while the futures market continues to see long positions being liquidated. Analysts note that the cryptocurrency market exhibits volatility similar to that of precious metals but has failed to follow the recent safe-haven rally in gold, highlighting that its price is still primarily influenced by liquidity conditions and risk sentiment rather than safe-haven demand.The report believes that regulatory progress remains a key potential catalyst, but the advancement of the U.S. digital asset market structure bill has been slow and uneven, leading to diminished expectations. The report also mentions macro risks, including concerns about the Federal Reserve's balance sheet contraction, which historically puts pressure on crypto assets by reducing liquidity in the banking system.