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first_img Galaxy: The probability of the CLARITY Act passing has dropped to 10%, SEC and CFTC accelerate independent actions

Galaxy Research analyst Alex Thorn pointed out that as the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 significantly decreases, the U.S. SEC and CFTC are intensifying independent cryptocurrency regulatory actions. The bill previously gained bipartisan support in the Senate Banking Committee but has stalled due to unresolved ethical rules for officials regarding cryptocurrency, pressure from community banks leading to some Republican positions softening, and disputes over developer protection clauses. The Senate Majority Leader failed to push for a vote before the August recess, and the September session is only about two to three weeks long, leading Galaxy to lower the probability to 10%.On the SEC side, the originally planned "Reg Crypto" exemption (which provides a new path for primary issuance of crypto assets) and "Innovation Exemption" (which allows tokenized securities to trade in DeFi secondary markets) have been postponed multiple times. It is reported that the agency had retreated due to opposition from the traditional securities industry, but may restart due to the bleak outlook of the bill, with text expected to be released in the coming weeks to months. These measures are likely to be time-limited sandboxes that will face litigation and require years to refine. The CFTC is actively advocating for jurisdiction over prediction market contracts, responding to the New York Attorney General's attempt to issue an emergency order to ban Kalshi event contracts nationwide, continuing the tug-of-war over federal and state jurisdiction regarding prediction markets.Thorn believes that while the bill covers a comprehensive framework including registration licensing, compliance monitoring, and consumer protection, it is currently more dominated by political factors. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce's planned departure in November also adds urgency to the advancement of the rules. The related actions aim to fill the legislative vacuum but may ultimately undergo a lengthy judicial and rule-making process.

Tether CEO responds to doubts after KPMG's first complete audit, we have proven ourselves multiple times

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, in an interview with The Block, responded to ongoing criticisms raised after KPMG U.S. completed its first full financial audit. He stated that some critics are unable to admit that their past judgments about Tether were wrong, and said, "Honestly, I don't care." Ardoino mentioned that Tether has repeatedly proven its resilience.He noted that in 2022, Tether processed $7 billion in redemptions within 48 hours, which was about 10% of its reserves at the time, and there was no pause in redemptions during that period. He believes that many traditional financial institutions would struggle to handle withdrawals of a similar scale in such a short time. He also stated that criticism itself is not a bad thing, as it makes Tether better and stronger. Even if some critics view it as a "villain," as long as Tether can continue to serve its claimed 650 million users who rely on USDT, especially in emerging markets, he does not mind.According to informed sources, Tether, as a private company, will not publicly share audited financial statements. The company plans to conduct a full audit once a year in the future while continuing to release quarterly attestation reports. Overall, the KPMG audit is an important step for Tether to enhance transparency, but controversies surrounding its reserves, disclosure levels, and systemic impact have not completely dissipated.

hot_img Reuters: Microsoft has closed at least 15 branches in China over the past five years, with AI overseas business becoming a key factor for retention

According to a report by Reuters, influenced by multiple factors such as the tense Sino-U.S. relations, China's push for domestic software alternatives, and U.S. export controls, Microsoft has closed at least 15 branches and joint ventures in China over the past five years, executing a strategic contraction. In 2023, the company internally considered exiting the Chinese market, as some executives believed that "the geopolitical risks outweighed the limited economic returns," but ultimately did not proceed with the exit. Microsoft disclosed in 2024 that its business in China accounted for only about 1.5% of its global revenue.The report states that Microsoft's final decision to remain in China was primarily due to the establishment of a profitable path—providing Azure cloud and AI services to Chinese companies like ByteDance and Shein, helping them operate compliantly in overseas markets. Additionally, the company believes that retaining its business in China remains strategically significant for acquiring engineering talent. However, analysts question the sustainability of this AI business model: the service relies on third-party models like OpenAI, and Chinese companies are increasingly adopting domestic alternatives like Kimi, which offer comparable performance at lower costs.Microsoft's research and development presence in China is also contracting. Its predecessor, Microsoft Research Asia, has successively established new labs in Vancouver, Singapore, and Tokyo. In 2024, the company offered job opportunities to 1,000 top engineers to relocate to the U.S. and three other countries, but only about one-third accepted, with most senior engineers moving to domestic universities and tech companies. A Microsoft spokesperson responded that the company will continue to commit to the Chinese market but did not comment on specific decision details. ByteDance and Shein did not respond to related inquiries.

The U.S. CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee will first discuss the regulation of crypto assets, AI, and prediction markets

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has announced the agenda for the inaugural meeting of the Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC). The committee will hold its first meeting on August 20, focusing on regulatory issues in emerging areas such as crypto assets, artificial intelligence, and prediction markets.CFTC Chairman Michael S. Selig stated that the U.S. has long been a global center for financial innovation and hopes to explore how emerging technologies and financial products can drive market development through discussions with innovative entrepreneurs, researchers, and industry builders, and to jointly explore the "new frontiers of finance." The meeting will be live-streamed on the CFTC official website. Committee members and attendees will discuss topics such as the regulatory framework for digital assets, the impact of AI technology on financial markets, and the development of prediction markets. The public can submit relevant opinions by August 27, and these opinions will be publicly released through the U.S. Federal Regulations website Regulations.gov. The CFTC indicated that the meeting agenda may be adjusted based on the committee's subsequent focus.The Innovation Advisory Committee aims to provide the CFTC with recommendations on emerging technologies, financial products, and trends in market innovation, covering important areas such as digital assets and artificial intelligence that may influence the structure of future financial markets.

Garrett Jin: Hynix has rebounded to the profit-taking zone, planning to buy on Bitcoin's pullback, and be cautious of the remaining unlocks after SpaceX's short squeeze

Garrett Jin released this week's market report, characterizing the rebound in the South Korean market as a wide-ranging fluctuation rather than a new trend. SK Hynix rebounded continuously after retesting the 1.42 million won area, closing up 5.9% at 1,593,000 won. The KOSPI has risen 20% from the July low, entering a technical bull market, but foreign capital has not shifted to long-term holdings, and the drag from leveraged ETFs remains. Garrett Jin set the first profit-taking level at $1,150 (approximately 1.63 million won), with the next target at $1,300 (1.85 million won).Garrett Jin also noted that gold recorded its strongest weekly gain since January this week at +7.8%, priced at $4,388. The driving factors were a decrease of 23,000 in July non-farm payrolls and a moderate CPI that dampened September rate hike expectations. However, it is currently overbought in the short term, and a pullback could present an opportunity for incremental accumulation. Bitcoin has shown no response to the same macro-positive factors, remaining trapped between the support at $62,500 and resistance at $65,000-$70,000, with the bottom structure since $57,700 gradually being built. Garrett Jin will wait for the next buying opportunity after a pullback.Regarding SpaceX, Garrett Jin believes the recent performance is a classic case of "bad news fully priced in + short squeeze," with the unlocking itself becoming a washout rather than the starting point of a decline. However, the unlocking window has not yet ended, with an additional 319 million shares to be unlocked, approximately 700 million shares each in September and October. The current range up to $160 is a profit-taking zone rather than a high-entry zone.
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