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J.P. Morgan: Negotiations on the CLARITY Act have entered the final stage, with disputes narrowed down to 2-3 core issues

JPMorgan analysts have stated that negotiations for the U.S. "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" (i.e., the CLARITY Act) have entered the final stages, with both sides reaching compromises on a few remaining contentious points. The number of disputes has been reduced from over a dozen to 2-3 core issues, with discussions on stablecoin rewards being "in a good place." While banks express concerns about stablecoins offering similar yields to deposits, there is an overall bipartisan compromise trend. JPMorgan believes that "there is no perfect bill," and once passed, the bill will provide important regulatory clarity for the integration of digital assets into the U.S. financial system.The "Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act" is currently in advanced negotiations in the U.S. Senate, with Senate staff stating that the draft is "very close" to resolution, but the final text has not yet been released, nor has a formal vote been scheduled. The remaining major disagreements focus on stablecoin rewards, DeFi regulation, and token classification issues. Although optimism is rising, there is still a risk of delays due to the 2026 midterm elections, which could lead to a more uncertain political environment. If the bill is ultimately passed, it will delineate the regulatory authority between the SEC and CFTC, providing a long-term regulatory framework for stablecoins, DeFi, and the entire cryptocurrency industry.

Analysis shows that Bitcoin is strengthening alongside the US stock market, but the options market still bets on downside risks

Bitcoin rose to about $74,935 during the Asian session, up 0.7% in the last 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending mixed signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital pointed out that this round of increase is mainly driven by spot trading, rather than a broad recovery in risk appetite.Currently, the funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts remains negative, and open interest has decreased, indicating that short sellers are still increasing hedges rather than passively closing positions. The options market is also leaning towards caution: short-term implied volatility is sluggish, with one-month volatility lower than three-month volatility, and the risk reversal indicator shows that the market's demand for downside protection is higher than for upside bets, indicating that traders are more inclined to pay for potential declines rather than chase upward movements. QCP believes this is more of a "bounce" rather than a trend reversal.On a macro level, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite, with gold still near high levels, indicating that safe-haven demand remains. Institutions point out that the current market is more driven by expectations of a ceasefire and "emotional repair," rather than a core risk being alleviated. Additionally, Ethereum has shown relatively strong performance, with the ETH/BTC ratio rising to about 0.0315, combined with on-chain transaction volumes and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, indicating signs of capital rotating towards high β assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this round of increase.
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