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first_img The United States has designated the Russian A7 Network as a transnational criminal organization and plans to cut off its cryptocurrency funding channels

According to Decrypt, the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control has designated the Russian shadow banking network A7 Network as a significant transnational criminal organization, listing its relevant addresses in Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network has proposed a draft rule that aims to prohibit U.S. institutions from participating in any fund transfers involving the network's "sub-agent companies," covering convertible virtual currencies and not limited to fiat currencies, which is expected to affect approximately 348,000 institutions, including several cryptocurrency exchanges.The proposal is based on six special measures granted by Section 9714 of the Countering Russian Money Laundering Act, ultimately selecting the sixth measure, which is the fund transfer ban. The fifth measure, which restricts correspondent accounts, is considered to have loopholes: research by blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs shows that A7A5 transactions completely bypass the correspondent banking system, which the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network views as a core aspect of its business model. A7A5 is a ruble-backed token issued by Old Vector, registered in Kyrgyzstan, operating on Tron and Ethereum, with reserves held at the Russian state-owned defense bank Promsvyazbank.The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network stated that between February 2025 and June 2026, over 180 entities handled at least $17.91 billion in A7A5, which historically circulated almost entirely through the sanctioned exchanges Garantex and Grinex, often used as a non-frozen bridge to convert into USDT and then into fiat currency.

QCP Capital: The current surge in Bitcoin is mainly driven by spot funds, but the current market structure still has vulnerabilities

QCP Capital released the latest market analysis stating that BTC has broken through the previous trading range of $82,500 to $85,700 that lasted for a week, reaching a high of $86,913 during the day, the highest since September 23. It is currently trading around $85,900, up 14.6% from the low of $74,968 on September 15. QCP pointed out that during this round of increase, the annualized funding rate for perpetual contracts was only 5.4%, indicating that the market was mainly driven by spot funds rather than leveraged trading. QCP believes that this round of BTC's rise diverges from traditional macro market signals. In September, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 5.62%, and the 10-year yield reached 5.29% at one point, while gold recorded its worst month of the year. Although rising real interest rates typically put pressure on gold and risk assets, BTC still rose.QCP believes that this market trend is more consistent with concentrated capital trading driven by institutional fund inflows, regulatory catalysts, and technical improvements, rather than purely a currency depreciation trading logic. Regarding institutional funds and regulatory factors, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded net inflows of approximately $3.5 billion and $2.6 billion in August and September, respectively. QCP noted that the innovative exemption policy released by the U.S. SEC on September 17 provided a new regulatory catalyst for the market, but since the CLARITY Act failed to pass in the Senate earlier, market structure legislation may be delayed until 2027. Therefore, current regulatory support comes more from the administrative level, and long-term policy certainty remains limited.In the options market, yesterday's options trading nominal amount was approximately $2.5 billion, involving 54 transactions with a nominal amount exceeding $5 million each. Among them, one client sold in batches call options expiring on October 30 with a strike price of $90,000, totaling over 4,000 contracts with a nominal amount of $346 million; at the same time, they actively bought call options with the same strike price expiring on November 27. QCP believes that this operation reflects that some traders are rolling their positions from October to November to position for the U.S. midterm elections, quarterly Treasury refinancing, and market volatility around the December Federal Reserve meeting.On the macroeconomic front, the Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting from October 27 to 28. QCP stated that after Federal Reserve official Williams said there was no need to rush to adjust policies further, and with the August core PCE coming in below expectations, market expectations for maintaining interest rates in October have warmed. However, the market still expects an approximately 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in December. The U.S. non-farm payroll report for September, to be released tonight, will be an important short-term test, with the market expecting an increase in non-farm payrolls of 84,000 to 93,000, an unemployment rate holding at 4.1%, and an average hourly wage year-on-year growth rate expected to be 3%.On the technical front, the support level of $82,500 has been tested three times in the past week, while $87,400 is the location of the September high and is a key resistance for BTC to further challenge $90,000. The implied volatility term structure in the options market is in a contango state, with a 7-day implied volatility of 30.3 and a 90-day implied volatility of 37.1; the 30-day risk reversal indicator is approximately -2.5 volatility points, indicating an increase in demand for short-term put protection. QCP believes that although BTC shows resilience in a macro environment of rising real interest rates, the market is still mainly driven by capital flows and position changes, and it cannot yet be considered that macro risks have been eliminated. U.S. employment data, Treasury supply, and the intensive policy events in the coming weeks may still trigger market volatility.

first_img Variant Fund Investment Partner: The bottom of the cryptocurrency market may have appeared in July, and three types of assets will benefit from the market recovery

Variant Fund investment partner Alana Levin stated in her market thoughts for Q4 2026 that the bottom of the crypto market likely occurred at some point in July. She wrote in early July that the bottom seemed close, with Bitcoin at $59,000, Ethereum at $1,600, and ZEC at $420. She mentioned that the question has shifted to whether the bull market is genuinely starting or if it's a false rally, and which projects will benefit the most in the early bull market, assuming the market is in the early stages of a new crypto bull market.Levin indicated that the increasingly formed consensus is that marginal funds are most likely to flow into value storage protocols as currency and protocols that can generate income. She believes Bitcoin is the dominant asset for digital value storage currently, while other competing assets may be valued based on their market capitalization relative to Bitcoin's market cap and its changes. For income-generating protocols, she expects investors to examine whether the income comes from crypto-native activities (like Pump) or traditional financial activities (like Hyperliquid), whether it persists during market downturns, and profit margins; projects with exposure to real-world assets and stablecoin growth, which are expected to attract institutional users and are still led by founders after surviving a bear market, are more likely to achieve higher multiples.She also categorized on-chain projects that can benchmark against non-crypto businesses as a third category, believing that most belong to narrative trading rather than long-term investment. Themes include routing, reasoning, computing power, data collection, and interface-related directions in artificial intelligence, and she is skeptical about whether most scenarios require blockchain; if such projects significantly outperform, she would view it as a signal of nearing the top.

The U.S. SEC sues two private equity funds: suspected of falsely selling Pre-IPO shares of OpenAI, SpaceX, etc., and misappropriating investor funds

According to Fortune, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed lawsuits against two private fund cases, accusing the relevant fund advisors of raising funds under the pretext of investing in popular tech companies like OpenAI and SpaceX before their IPOs, but allegedly providing false information to investors and misappropriating some of the funds.The SEC stated that Meyer Global Management and its head Owen Meyer are suspected of raising at least $18.5 million from nearly 100 investors to purchase shares of companies before their IPOs, but misappropriated at least $1.27 million, including using fund money for personal consumption, paying entertainment expenses, and personal investments. Among them, the SEC accused Meyer of establishing a fund for investing in shares of OpenAI and SpaceX, but some of the funds did not actually hold the relevant assets.In another case, the SEC and federal prosecutors accused Beyond Alpha Ventures heads Christopher Dinelli and Jacob Frankel of raising over $8.7 million from 35 investors and falsely promoting that the fund held shares in companies like SpaceX and xAI.The SEC stated that the two provided false investment reports, with some of the funds being used for options trading, film investments, and personal use. The SEC emphasized that the accused tech companies and their management have not been found to have engaged in misconduct. Regulatory agencies have been continuously monitoring investment products that promote "acquiring shares before popular private company IPOs" and have launched multiple enforcement actions against relevant private fund advisors.
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