matrixport

Matrixport released a research report on platform X, which pointed out that Bitcoin recently experienced a rapid decline, with implied volatility in options soaring at one point and then partially retreating. The price of Bitcoin dropped from around $85,000 to a low near $60,000, before stabilizing around $66,000.Meanwhile, the implied volatility for March 2026 quickly surged from just over 40% to a panic high close to 65%, reflecting a strong demand for downside protection during the decline. Subsequently, implied volatility fell back to around 50%, indicating that some tail risk hedges are being unwound, and short-term pressure has eased. The crypto market is approaching a critical turning point: volatility remains high, sentiment lingers at extremely low levels, and market liquidity continues to flow out. Traders are gradually unwinding their crash hedges, resulting in a noticeable reduction in overall positions and a significant decline in participation.Historically, such combinations often appear before the initiation of significant directional trends. The macro environment is showing signs of improvement, but the prices of crypto assets have not followed suit significantly, and this divergence is typically difficult to sustain in the long term.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, as the ETH price rebounds, the Matrixport-related whale address that previously went long on 105,000 ETH (worth $215 million) has turned over $10 million in unrealized losses into an unrealized gain of $1 million.

According to the weekly report released by Matrix on Target, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the key level indicated by analysts, confirming the downward trend. The current retracement of Bitcoin in both magnitude and pace is quite similar to the downward phases of historical cycles. The market's focus has shifted from "Has the trend reversed?" to "When will the next more favorable allocation window arrive?"Looking back, analysts successfully identified the starting point of the Bitcoin bull market and predicted that the peak of this cycle could reach $125,000. Between the end of 2024 and October 2025, Bitcoin has repeatedly shown characteristics of the fifth round of the bull market nearing its end, indicating that the bullish momentum is gradually waning. As the price has fallen below key levels, the market has entered the confirmation phase of a bear market.

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, a suspected whale related to Matrixport (0x6C85...84F6 and 0xa5B0...1D41) has established a long position of 105,000 ETH on Hyperliquid, with a total value of $204.5 million, currently facing an unrealized loss of over $10 million.Addresses 0x6C85...84F6 and 0xa5B0...1D41 both transferred funds from the Tron network to Arbitrum via Bridgers and deposited them into Hyperliquid, possibly belonging to the same whale. Among them, address 0xa5B0...1D41 has received funds from Matrixport multiple times.

Matrixport's analysis indicates that the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has significantly slowed down, primarily due to the narrowing of market basis.The report points out that retail participation remains persistently low, with trading volume data from the South Korean crypto market showing no significant retail buying demand. Due to the lack of incremental buying support, the perpetual contract funding rate has remained low for an extended period, thereby compressing the profit space for basis trading (arbitrage between spot and futures), which limits the incremental inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs.Analysts believe this confirms the judgment made in March 2024: without retail-driven momentum to push the spot-futures price difference, the pace of institutional capital allocation is difficult to accelerate, leading to an extension of the current consolidation phase.

According to Arkham data, at 23:50, 7412.57 ETH (worth approximately 14.98 million USD) was transferred from Matrixport to an anonymous address (starting with 0xe720...).

According to charts and analysis released by Matrixport, Bitcoin is attempting to stage a counter-trend rebound after experiencing a capitulation-style sell-off. This round of decline has washed out weak positions and triggered passive selling pressure and chain liquidations in the derivatives market.In the short term, there is still some upward space from a technical perspective, but whether the rebound can be sustained largely depends on whether there is new capital to take over, rather than relying solely on short covering and systematic hedging funds. Matrixport points out that Bitcoin is still in a larger bear market reset phase, where rapid rebounds are not uncommon but often difficult to maintain. On-chain data also indicates that the current environment remains weak, with insufficient demand momentum and limited structural accumulation. Meanwhile, hedging activities in the options market are heating up, which may further amplify price volatility. If spot demand is insufficient, Bitcoin's price is more likely to experience a rapid decline, and the impact of derivatives on price will also increase.

Matrixport's weekly report indicates that after a rapid pullback, Bitcoin has reached a key downward target range, but the market is still caught between "improving macro conditions" and "insufficient technical recovery."Growth indicators are rebounding, fiscal strength is increasing, and the dollar is weakening, which should support risk assets; however, Bitcoin has yet to provide a clear and sustainable reversal confirmation. Technically, the key trend lines that were previously used to distinguish between "phase rebounds" and "structural downtrends" have been breached and lost, and prior support zones have turned into resistance above. Therefore, the recent rebound appears more like a corrective recovery after a decline, rather than a shift in trend or structure.The position structure has further amplified the upward pressure: a large amount of capital has entered at higher price levels, with limited reduction during the pullback. In the absence of a compelling new narrative or catalyst, this existing capital is more likely to translate into upward supply pressure rather than an effective source of support.From a cyclical perspective, it currently resembles the top area of a later cycle. Historically, in similar phases, even when macro conditions improve, prices do not necessarily stop falling immediately; they often experience a period of decline or weak consolidation, with the focus ultimately shifting further down. The reason lies in the capital structure and participation: when the chips are crowded and participation weakens, capital that entered at high levels tends to prioritize recovering costs and reducing risks during rebounds, making selling pressure more likely to overshadow the absorption of new capital, and macro positives are harder to translate into sustained upward momentum in the short term.

Matrixport released a chart today stating that although Bitcoin has dropped about 14% since the beginning of the year, crypto-related stocks overall have still outperformed BTC. However, within the sector, individual stock returns have shown significant divergence.Specifically, brokerage and trading platforms (such as Robinhood and Coinbase) have seen double-digit pullbacks; while some Bitcoin mining companies, after shifting their focus to AI data centers, have recorded double-digit gains year-to-date despite last week's pullback. This divergence indicates a change in the market's pricing approach. In the past, the market tended to treat crypto assets as a whole that moved "up and down together"; now, it is beginning to assess based on different companies' business models and primary business directions.As a result, the correlation between related stocks and Bitcoin has decreased, opening up Alpha space at the individual stock level. The noticeable dispersion of year-to-date (YTD) returns in the table is a direct reflection of this change.

Matrixport announced that its Bhutan entity, Matrix Bhutan Pte Ltd, has obtained a Financial Services License (FSL) issued by the Bhutan Financial Services Office (GFSO).The license authorizes the company to conduct multiple regulated financial services within or from the Bhutan Grelup Mindfulness City (GMC), including currency services, OTC operations (facilitating proprietary trading), and custodial services. This licensing is a significant advancement based on the principle approval (IPA) obtained in December 2025, and marks the official commencement of approved business activities for Matrix Bhutan Pte Ltd under Bhutan's regulatory framework.In the future, Matrixport will continue to strictly adhere to the relevant regulatory requirements of GFSO and GMC, focusing on compliance, risk management, and robust governance, while continuously promoting the development of institutional-grade digital financial services.

Matrixport released the latest analysis indicating that the core reason for Bitcoin's recent consolidation is the "lack of narrative." Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive months. Despite several U.S. wealth management firms gradually opening allocation channels, the new channels have not brought in corresponding incremental funds, and the overall ETF funding situation remains weak.Matrixport believes that the marginal demand from traditional finance (TradFi) may have reached a phase of saturation. In terms of timing, July was the last significant net inflow window, after which the momentum of funds has continued to weaken. The report suggests that Bitcoin may need a "narrative reboot" or a new core pricing theme to form substantial support in terms of funds and expectations, and to re-attract TradFi capital back; the current trend is more likely a phase of correction rather than a long-term trend reversal.

Matrixport's analysis on platform X indicates that, based on on-chain data and technical indicators, Bitcoin remains in a bearish environment. The most intuitive signal is that the price is still below the 21-week moving average. At the same time, U.S. midterm election years are typically accompanied by increased policy uncertainty and fluctuations in risk appetite, and this time window overlaps with the typical four-year cycle of Bitcoin, during which prices have historically been more prone to weakness.Even so, a relatively positive outlook on overall risk assets is maintained. The re-inflation narrative is still present, and the dollar remains in a relatively weak operating range. To hedge against the pressure brought by weakening purchasing power, dollar-denominated funds typically tend to maintain a relatively high allocation to risk assets. Recently, Trump's comments on the weakening dollar have neither released clear support signals nor made strong statements, leading the market to interpret this as an increased tolerance for further dollar weakness. Coupled with some international funds increasing their allocation to non-U.S. assets and reducing concentration in U.S. assets, under this backdrop, re-inflation trades may still find support in the short term.

Matrixport announces the launch of a new business for direct investment in US stocks using stablecoins (USDT/USDC). Starting today, users can download the app through official channels and complete KYC in advance. The trading function will officially open on February 3.This business is directly connected to a senior licensed broker in the United States, allowing users to hold US stock assets and enjoy shareholder rights, while also supporting stablecoin deposits and withdrawals 24/7 with instant transactions, providing users with a flexible and efficient global asset allocation experience.This move marks the official start of Matrixport's 2026 strategic blueprint and is a prelude to a comprehensive brand renewal. The official announcement also reveals that a brand strategy upgrade will be launched soon, leading the crypto finance sector into an era of multi-asset allocation with a fresh look.

Matrixport released a chart today stating that the "GENIUS Act" is expected to prohibit stablecoin issuers from paying interest or yields to holders. Funds may therefore shift towards yield-generating alternatives like tokenized money market funds. USDC has seen net redemptions of about $6.5 billion over the past six weeks, leading to a contraction in stablecoin liquidity and a weakening of short-term purchasing power in the crypto market.Meanwhile, funds are flowing out of stablecoins and into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, further shrinking the supply of stablecoins. Accordingly, Circle is shifting its focus from "market capitalization" to "trading activity," promoting the use and payment of stablecoins in real-world scenarios through initiatives like the Circle Payment Network and partnerships with companies like Intuit.

Matrixport released a chart analysis indicating that gold prices continue to rise, with the key to this round of increase being the renewed concerns about the weakening purchasing power of the dollar. Against the backdrop of Trump once again pushing for increased tariffs on Europe, the dollar is under pressure, while discussions about foreign central banks potentially reducing their holdings of U.S. Treasuries and shifting more foreign exchange reserves to gold have noticeably increased.The analysis suggests that the relative strength of gold is closely related to the support from official sector demand. Central banks around the world continue to increase their gold holdings, especially the pace of purchases by the People's Bank of China, which has garnered more market attention and provided ongoing buying support for gold prices. In contrast, Bitcoin is still less frequently included in the diversification framework of central bank reserves in terms of public disclosure. For policymakers, gold remains a more mainstream asset that aligns better with the existing reserve management system, while Bitcoin has yet to be widely accepted within the official foreign exchange reserve framework.Matrixport stated that this divergence in central bank asset allocation may, to some extent, explain the recent strength of gold and the relative weakness of Bitcoin.