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Wall Street investment bank TD Cowen has lowered the target price for Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto Inc. (NASDAQ: NAKA), reducing the split-adjusted target price from $40 to $17, a decrease of 58%, but still maintaining a "Buy" rating. TD Cowen analysts stated that this adjustment is mainly due to the pressure on Nakamoto's highly leveraged capital structure from the decline in Bitcoin prices.Although the new target price still implies about a 275% upside from the current stock price of $4.65, the company's stock is highly sensitive to fluctuations in Bitcoin prices. TD Cowen expects Bitcoin to rebound to $100,000 by the end of 2026, which is about 25% lower than the historical high of $126,000 set last October. At the same time, the firm anticipates that Nakamoto will suspend further Bitcoin purchases before 2027.Analysts pointed out that Nakamoto's core value still comes from its Bitcoin assets, with the company currently holding 4,467 BTC, valued at approximately $290 million, ranking 22nd among publicly listed companies in terms of Bitcoin holdings. However, the company's debt and preferred stock financing structure have also compressed the asset value available to common stockholders. Recently, Nakamoto has completed several financial adjustments, including repaying approximately $45 million in debt, extending the principal of $105 million to June 2027, reducing financing costs, and approving a $25 million stock buyback plan. Additionally, the company has closed its previously operated medical clinic business and will focus on Bitcoin media, asset management, and consulting services in the future. Data shows that NAKA's stock price has fallen over 71% this year, while Bitcoin has declined about 26% during the same period. Market attention is shifting from "continuously purchasing BTC" to the asset-liability structure and financing capabilities of Bitcoin treasury companies.

According to official news, the ForeGate supercomputing database, in collaboration with football legend Michael Owen, OneBullEx, OKX, and WEEX, has officially released the "ForeGate 2026 World Cup Winning Guide" match research report.This report focuses on the progress of the 2026 World Cup schedule in the US, Canada, and Mexico, conducting a systematic analysis of the qualification probabilities, advancement paths, championship probabilities, win-draw-loss trends, and betting tendencies of the 48 participating teams. The report combines the ForeGate AI prediction model with OKX data path simulations and continuously updates based on real-time match results, team conditions, and potential matchup changes. Currently, the comprehensive prediction accuracy of the related models has reached 93.8%, demonstrating strong data analysis capabilities in aspects such as match result response, point calibration, and advancement path judgment.ForeGate stated that during the World Cup, it will continuously update prediction content based on match results, team conditions, and model simulation results to help users understand the probabilistic logic behind schedule changes. Meanwhile, the ForeGate World Cup million-dollar prediction event is also in full swing, where users can participate in match predictions to share in the million-dollar rewards.As the World Cup schedule continues to progress, OneBullEx will combine the match data and related content from the report to keep a close eye on the dynamics of the matches, further enriching community participation and match discussions during the World Cup, providing users with more reference perspectives for observing match trends.

Investment bank TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza reiterated a buy rating on Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (MSTR), with a target price of $400.

Investment bank TD Cowen's Washington research team managing director Jaret Seiberg released a report on Tuesday stating that the political environment surrounding the CLARITY Act is continuing to deteriorate, and the likelihood of this cryptocurrency market structure bill passing this year is decreasing. Seiberg pointed out that recent controversies involving President Trump make it difficult for Democrats to support the bill without a conflict of interest clause.Seiberg indicated that these events have increased pressure on Democrats to include a conflict of interest clause targeting the president, while also making Republicans reluctant to push legislation that could force them to vote against related amendments. He anticipates that lawmakers may choose to wait and see, but there is limited room for further delays given the upcoming midterm elections. He previously mentioned that the legislative window could extend until the August recess, and if not resolved this year, the passage time could be pushed back to 2027.

According to The Block, TD Cowen analysts raised the target price for Strategy (MSTR) from $385 to $395, implying an increase of over 110% from the current stock price.Analysts believe that Strategy's increased use of STRC (variable rate perpetual preferred stock) to fund Bitcoin acquisitions significantly enhances capital efficiency and is more attractive than the current market pricing. The company has raised over $2 billion through STRC in the first quarter of 2026, totaling over $5 billion for the year.TD Cowen also dismissed market concerns about "perpetual dilution," emphasizing that the annual dividend burden of STRC accounts for only about 2.2% of its Bitcoin holdings' value, which can be covered by moderate Bitcoin appreciation.

TD Cowen pointed out that the disagreements surrounding the stablecoin yield mechanism remain difficult to bridge, which may delay the advancement of the U.S. crypto market structure bill and even affect its chances of passing within the year.Several banking organizations, including the American Bankers Association, have formally opposed the relevant compromise proposals, arguing that allowing crypto platforms to offer stablecoin yields to users would impact traditional banks. Analysts state that the positions of banks and crypto platforms on this issue are opposed, and in the short term, "there is unlikely to be a middle ground," which has become a key obstacle in the current legislative process.

Investment bank TD Cowen stated that the disagreements surrounding the CLARITY Act go beyond the issue of stablecoin yields, and multiple real-world obstacles may slow down the legislative process.First, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is understaffed, with only one commissioner currently in office. In this situation, Congress is unlikely to feel comfortable handing over more cryptocurrency regulatory responsibilities to the agency, and filling the personnel gaps will take months. Second, the issue of prediction markets is heating up. Whether to include it in the bill's regulation, as well as potential insider trading and conflicts of political interest (including controversies related to Trump-related projects), may lead some Democratic lawmakers to oppose the bill.At the same time, the ongoing controversy surrounding the Trump family's cryptocurrency project World Liberty Financial is increasing the political sensitivity of the bill, making bipartisan consensus harder to achieve. Geopolitics has also become a variable. Discussions about Iran potentially using cryptocurrency payments are reinforcing the focus on anti-money laundering provisions and could even introduce amendments detrimental to the industry. Additionally, some lawmakers are attempting to include the Credit Card Competition Act, which, if advanced, could trigger new conflicts of interest and further delay the overall legislation.

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza reiterated a buy rating on Bitcoin reserve company MSTR and raised the target price to $385.

According to The Block, Jaret Seiberg, Managing Director of TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, expressed that the outlook for the passage of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the "CLARITY Act," is "increasingly pessimistic," with only a one-third chance of passing this year. He pointed out that the recent compromise proposal regarding stablecoin yields is "insufficient" to advance the bill, as it fails to meet the demands of crypto platforms like Coinbase and does little to alleviate banks' concerns about core deposit outflows.Seiberg believes that the bill could only pass if Congress ignores the objections from Coinbase and the banking industry and forcefully pushes through the compromise proposal, but this would be an exception rather than the norm. He anticipates that if the bill makes any progress, it is most likely to occur at the end of July, just before the August recess. Congress is currently in a two-week Easter recess.

The whale Owen Gunden of Wanbi Bitcoin (who previously sold 11,000 BTC, approximately 1.12 billion USD) sold another 650 BTC about 10 hours ago, worth approximately 46.3 million USD.

According to The Block, investment bank TD Cowen stated that the time window for the U.S. to pass the crypto market structure bill may extend to the August recess, breaking the previous expectation that legislation needed to be completed before the Easter recess.Jaret Seiberg, managing director of TD Cowen's Washington research team, pointed out that the Easter recess is not a critical milestone, and legislative work can continue before and after the recess. With the conclusion of the primaries, some lawmakers will have greater flexibility for negotiations. Seiberg believes that the August recess is the last meaningful legislative window, after which Congress will only meet for 12 days in September and 2 days in October, which is only enough time to handle spending bills and defense authorization bills.He also reiterated that if control of Congress changes after the 2026 midterm elections, the bill may be delayed until 2027. It is expected that the House may shift to Democratic control, at which point the Democrats may choose to delay until 2027 to gain greater leverage. Currently, the crypto bill is stalled due to opposition from the banking sector regarding stablecoin yields and the Democrats seeking conflict-of-interest provisions for government officials, but both sides are reportedly close to reaching a compromise. Seiberg stated that if the bill does not pass in 2026, the SEC will provide the regulatory actions needed for the crypto industry.

Investment bank TD Cowen stated that the U.S. Congress may be close to passing legislation to permanently prohibit the Federal Reserve from issuing a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). This move could benefit stablecoin issuers but may also introduce new complexities for cryptocurrency market structure legislation.Last week, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz proposed an amendment in the housing bill "21st Century ROAD to Housing Act," calling for a permanent ban on the Federal Reserve issuing CBDC. The amendment aims to convert the currently effective temporary ban, which lasts until 2030, into a permanent provision. The housing bill is expected to be submitted for a Senate vote as early as this week.Jaret Seiberg, Managing Director of TD Cowen's Washington research department, indicated that the housing bill ultimately submitted for the president's signature is likely to include this ban, and the possibility of a permanent ban is higher than that of a temporary one. Seiberg pointed out that the amendment is primarily aimed at solidifying the current policy stance.The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stated that it will not issue a digital dollar without explicit authorization from Congress. Meanwhile, several U.S. lawmakers have recently co-signed a letter to congressional leadership, urging for a permanent ban on CBDC. Congressman Ralph Norman stated that unlike cash, CBDC could allow the government to track transactions and monitor individual spending behavior, thus a permanent ban is necessary to protect the privacy and freedom of Americans.It is noteworthy that the U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act" last year, which prohibits the Federal Reserve from directly issuing CBDC to individuals. Cruz has also been actively pushing for similar legislation in the Senate.

According to market news, TD Cowen stated that more cryptocurrency companies are expected to obtain such permissions this year, following Kraken's approval for a Federal Reserve master account.Kraken Financial has become the first cryptocurrency company approved to access the Federal Reserve's core payment system, with the Kansas City Fed granting it a one-year "limited purpose" account, subject to undisclosed restrictions based on its business model and risk profile. Kraken qualified for the application due to its possession of a special purpose depository institution license in Wyoming, classified as a "Tier 3" entity by regulators.TD Cowen pointed out that although banking organizations have raised objections and may file lawsuits, banks are powerless to prevent such approvals. The Federal Reserve is expected to limit Kraken's credit services, and it may not be able to earn reserve interest. Other cryptocurrency companies with slower application progress may need to wait for the Federal Reserve to finalize a streamlined review framework.

According to The Block, investment bank TD Cowen stated that filling the Democratic vacancies at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission could help advance negotiations on the U.S. crypto market structure bill.The investment bank pointed out that the biggest obstacle to the passage of this bill is not its core framework (i.e., whether digital assets should be regulated as securities by the SEC or as commodities by the CFTC), but rather a political dispute surrounding conflict of interest rules.Democrats are pushing for a ban to prevent senior government officials and their families from engaging in specific financial transactions involving digital assets. TD Cowen noted that, given Trump's involvement in the crypto project World Liberty Financial, this proposal would affect Trump and his family. Bloomberg estimated last month that Trump has made about $1.4 billion from his crypto project. The Trump family also holds a 20% stake in the mining company American Bitcoin.According to TD Cowen, it is unlikely that Democrats will abandon this demand, as the party has used Trump's crypto asset holdings as campaign material ahead of the midterm elections. Last month, no Democratic senators voted in favor of a bill in the Senate Agriculture Committee, citing concerns over Trump's crypto project. It remains unclear whether Democrats will support the Senate Banking Committee's bill.TD Cowen stated that Republicans oppose the proposal because they believe Trump would veto any legislation requiring his family to divest their crypto asset holdings. The report added that this disagreement has already caused a political stalemate, even as industry groups continue to negotiate the crypto regulatory framework.One possible path forward is for both parties to reach a compromise. In this scenario, Trump would agree to fill the Democratic vacancies at the SEC and CFTC. In return, Democrats would accept conflict of interest provisions that would only take effect after the next presidential inauguration.

According to The Block, investment bank TD Cowen has lowered the one-year price target for Bitcoin reserve company Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) from $500 to $440, due to ongoing equity and preferred stock issuances leading to a decline in Bitcoin yields.Analysts expect Strategy to acquire approximately 155,000 Bitcoins in fiscal year 2026, a significant increase from the previous estimate of 90,000, but these acquisitions will primarily be financed through common and preferred stock, diluting Bitcoin yields.Despite the lowered price target, analysts remain optimistic about Strategy's value as a Bitcoin investment tool, predicting that the price of Bitcoin will reach approximately $177,000 by December 2026 and about $226,000 by December 2027.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, investment bank TD Cowen expects Congress to pass cryptocurrency market structure legislation by 2026. The CLARITY Act will clarify whether digital assets are regulated by the SEC or the CFTC, and will regulate staking services, cryptocurrency custody, and trading platforms. Senate Democrats have proposed several requirements, including clarifying the legal status of digital assets, establishing a regulatory framework, and preventing illegal financial activities. The bill may also include ethical provisions prohibiting the president and their family from owning cryptocurrency exchanges or issuing tokens. Experts believe that while there is a risk of a delay until the first half of 2027, a compromise is likely to be reached among all parties.

According to The Block, investment bank TD Cowen stated that the U.S. legislative process aimed at establishing clear rules for the cryptocurrency market may take longer than expected, with the passage of related bills potentially delayed until 2027, and actual implementation possibly postponed until 2029.In a report released by TD Cowen on Monday, it was noted that while there is still a path to push the cryptocurrency market structure bill through this year, the political maneuvering in the U.S. Congress increases the likelihood of delays. The agency believes that the Democrats currently lack the motivation to accelerate the legislative process, especially considering their assessment that they may regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections.It also stated that election outcomes are always filled with uncertainty, so Democrats may reach an agreement, which could happen quickly as staff have been researching technical terms for months. Timing is favorable for the passage of the bill; if the bill is passed in 2027 and takes effect in 2029, then the issues will disappear. The cryptocurrency industry needs to accept that the presidential election may affect the final rules, and Democrats also need to acknowledge that conflict of interest provisions do not apply to Trump.

According to The Block, TD Cowen's latest report indicates that the Bitcoin premium of Michael Saylor's Strategy continues to decline, currently "approaching the lows of the 'crypto winter' of 2021-2022." The report includes two updated premium charts (one tracing back to 2020 and covering nearly 12 months), showing that Strategy did not issue new shares or purchase new Bitcoin through its market issuance (ATM) plan yesterday, prompting the market to re-evaluate its current premium levels.The charts show that the current premium has significantly retreated from last year's peak and is gradually compressing to levels seen at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. Nevertheless, TD Cowen maintains a bullish stance on MSTR, keeping a buy rating and a target price of $535 (approximately 200% higher than Strategy's current stock price of about $180), believing that "achieving this target within a year is reasonably expected." The report states: "We have not adjusted our base Bitcoin price expectations, anticipating that Strategy will hold 815,000 Bitcoins by the end of fiscal year 2027, which estimates that by December 2027, its holdings will be worth over $185 billion, equating to an intrinsic value of about $540 per share. The $535 target price reflects zero premium to the intrinsic value per share as of December 2027." The report also emphasizes that the risk of Strategy being removed from the MSCI index has put pressure on its stock price, with expectations that the company will be removed from the index and will continue to face pressure under MSCI's shadow.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, Bitcoin OG Owen Gunden deposited all of the remaining 2,499 BTC into Kraken, worth $228 million.

Investment bank TD Cowen analysts pointed out that as the federal government resumes operations, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is entering a critical period, as the agency is working on establishing regulatory rules for the cryptocurrency industry.The TD Cowen Washington research team, led by Jaret Seiberg, stated in a report that after the longest government shutdown, the market focus has shifted to SEC Chairman Paul Atkins' policy agenda. "After the government restart, the SEC will enter the most important 12 months of Chairman Atkins' tenure, and his agenda for easing regulations will enter a substantive phase," Seiberg said on Monday.