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Analyst: Ethereum is caught in a "dilemma between two narratives," as staking transforms Ethereum ETFs into income-generating products

According to Forbes, over the past few weeks, the price of Ethereum has continued to fluctuate narrowly around $2,000. Several market observers have pointed out that this reflects Ethereum being caught in a "narrative gap."Analyst Callan Sarre stated, "For the past few years, the story of Ethereum has been simple—L2 carries the scale, while the base layer remains lean and secure. Now, L2 has processed billions of dollars in weekly trading volume, with fees dropping over 90%, but the question is where long-term value accumulates." The market is pushing zero-knowledge technology and privacy features closer to the base layer, "for traders clinging to old models, it feels like the ground is shifting beneath their feet."Sarre emphasized the contradiction between transparency and institutional demand: "Today, every Ethereum transaction is completely public and transparent, which doesn't work for CFOs managing corporate treasuries or funds deploying nine-figure positions. If Ethereum is to attract trillions in institutional capital, privacy must be built into the protocol layer."Grayscale began distributing staking rewards to U.S. Ethereum ETF holders in January, and BlackRock has also applied for its staking ETH fund. PrimeXBT senior market analyst Jonatan Randin stated, "This changes the nature of Ethereum ETFs—not just price exposure, but income-generating products." He emphasized that the growth of the options market is reshaping the asset's volatility characteristics, "the options market around spot ETFs introduces dynamics like covered calls and dealer hedging that didn't exist two years ago."

Benchmark maintains a "Buy" rating on Metaplanet, but lowers the target price by more than 50%

According to The Block, Benchmark maintains a "buy" rating on Metaplanet but has lowered its target price by more than half, stating that the company's latest financial report highlights the "prospects and risks" of its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer, in a research report on Tuesday, reduced the target price for the Tokyo-listed Bitcoin reserve company from 2,400 yen to 1,100 yen. He wrote that recent performance shows the "hope and danger" of the company's Bitcoin-centric financial strategy. The stock is traded under the OTC code MTPLF in the U.S., currently priced at about $2.20, having briefly fallen to around $1.85 earlier this month, close to its lowest level since the company began its Bitcoin purchasing strategy in April 2024.Metaplanet reported a net loss of $619 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, primarily due to non-cash valuation losses from its holdings caused by the decline in Bitcoin prices late last year. Nevertheless, its operational performance has significantly improved, with revenue and profits increasing due to Bitcoin-related financial services activities.A core pillar of Benchmark's investment logic is Metaplanet's continuously expanding Bitcoin revenue-generating business, which generates income through Bitcoin-related options and yield strategies. Analysts believe this segment allows the company to pay dividends on newly issued perpetual preferred shares without selling its core Bitcoin holdings, thereby funding subsequent BTC purchases through operating cash flow rather than asset sales.The company added that investor demand for these preferred instruments will likely determine whether Metaplanet can successfully continue to expand its financial reserves while controlling dilution risk.

Benchmark lowers Coinbase's target price to $267, maintaining a "Buy" rating

According to The Block, Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer has lowered the target price for Coinbase (COIN) from $421 to $267, a decrease of 37%, while reiterating a "buy" rating. This adjustment comes after the company announced its fourth-quarter financial results, which fell short of expectations due to an overall pullback in the crypto market, impacting both revenue and earnings.Palmer has reduced the fiscal year 2026 earnings per share (EPS) forecast by 21% to $5.34, with the EPS expectation for the first quarter of 2026 at $0.96, approximately 19% lower than the market consensus. However, based on the current stock price of about $164, the new target price still implies about 60% upside potential.The financial report shows that Coinbase's net revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 was $1.71 billion, a 5% decrease quarter-over-quarter; the GAAP net loss was $667 million, primarily due to an unrealized loss of $718 million on crypto asset holdings and a strategic investment loss of $395 million. Despite short-term pressures, Palmer noted that the company's business structure is becoming "more diversified and resilient":Institutional trading revenue increased by 37% quarter-over-quarter to $185 million, benefiting from the acquisition of the derivatives platform Deribit for $2.9 billion last August;Stablecoin revenue grew by 3% quarter-over-quarter to $364 million, with USDC average balances reaching an all-time high;Subscription and services revenue reached $727.4 million, accounting for about 43% of net revenue, with full-year subscription and services revenue increasing by 23% year-over-year to $2.8 billion.The company expects subscription and services revenue for the first quarter of 2026 to be between $550 million and $630 million, with trading revenue for the period as of February 10 estimated at about $420 million. As of the end of 2025, the company held $11.3 billion in cash and had repurchased $1.7 billion in stock in the fourth quarter and early February, with the board also approving an additional $2 billion repurchase authorization.

Nomura Holdings and Daiwa Securities in Japan are collaborating with the three major banks to promote a pilot program for securities trading based on stablecoins

According to Nikkei News, Japan's Nomura Holdings and Daiwa Securities Group are collaborating with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, and Mizuho Financial Group to jointly promote a pilot project for securities trading based on stablecoins, aiming to achieve 24-hour real-time settlement on the blockchain.The project plans to convert assets such as stocks, government bonds, corporate bonds, investment trusts, and ETFs into digital securities. After investors place orders through brokers, transactions will be settled in real-time using yen stablecoins jointly issued by the three major banks, with asset rights simultaneously transferred to the buyer. The experiment is expected to start as early as this month after notifying financial regulatory authorities, and may attract more financial institutions in the future.The project aims to support round-the-clock trading through the tamper-proof characteristics of blockchain, extending trading hours and shortening settlement cycles to invigorate the markets for stocks, bonds, and investment trusts. However, implementation still faces compliance and practical challenges related to broker order verification and other operational processes, and the pilot will focus on identifying and addressing related obstacles.

Hong Kong's stablecoin regulation is accelerating, with the Monetary Authority aiming to issue the first batch of licenses in March

According to the Beijing Business Daily, new developments have emerged in the regulation of stablecoins in Hong Kong. The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Eddie Yue, stated that 36 applications for stablecoin issuer licenses have been received, and the relevant assessment work is being expedited, aiming to issue the first batch of stablecoin licenses in March, although the number will be kept prudent and limited.Eddie Yue emphasized that one of the key focuses of the review is risk management capabilities, including the application scenarios of stablecoins, reserve asset allocation, and cross-border compliance arrangements. In the future, if cross-border businesses involve the mainland, Singapore, London, and ASEAN, the relevant institutions must also comply with local regulatory requirements.Industry insiders pointed out that the issuance of the first batch of licenses is expected to promote the development of a compliant stablecoin ecosystem in Hong Kong, driving financial innovations such as tokenized assets and cross-border payments, further consolidating Hong Kong's international position in the digital finance sector. However, the Monetary Authority has clearly insisted on a regulatory approach that prioritizes stability, believing that stablecoin businesses should first be strictly regulated and gradually advanced, with rules optimized based on practical situations.The regulatory authorities also warned to be vigilant against illegal financial activities that use "stablecoins" as a gimmick. Industry experts advise investors to stay away from unlicensed stablecoin products, and participation in Hong Kong licensed stablecoin-related businesses across borders must also comply with mainland foreign exchange and cross-border regulatory requirements to prevent market speculation risks.
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